Terry Savage: The Savage Truth about Rates & Markets

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listen learn laugh and love every minute

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of the most unique Financial podcast on

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welcome to fun with annuities I'm your

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host Stan the annuity man America's

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annuity agent licensed in all 50s States

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we have a superstar repeat guest on one

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of my favorite celebrity guest hosts we

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ever have on and people always say when

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are you gonna have her back on well she

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has graced our presence I will say this

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of all the guest hosts we have and

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there's some big hitters she is one of

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them but she has the best background of

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anyone if you're watching this on the

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fun with annuities YouTube channel I

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mean it looks like a photo shoot for all

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you podcast listeners out there you know

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get to get to the YouTube channel and

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take a look Terry Savage thank you so

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much for joining us once again how are

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you

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I always think this is the most fun

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thing I do so I'm delighted to be here

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we always have fun and it's always

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factual and people love when we get

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together because

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you know it's just truth and facts and

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there's been a little bit happening

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recently Miss Savage

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um what's your take let's let's Jump

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Right In because um you know we're

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taping this a few days a day after the

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FED uh just met in September and it's

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going to be airing in a couple days

1:34
after that very very timely what was

1:37
your take on that I'm just going to step

1:39
back the floor is yours Miss Savage

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well you know what there's an advantage

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to having been around for a while

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because this is sort of like where I

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came in in the early 1980s and um I I

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you know you know my background maybe

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others don't I was a founding member of

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the first woman Trader on the Chicago

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Board options exchange I traded

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currencies on the international monetary

2:04
Market at the Mercantile Exchange and I

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was unique in those days and being a

2:08
girl doing that and so the local NBC

2:11
station had me on on a regular basis and

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I came to them one day now this is going

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to take you way way back okay before we

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get today and I said I realized I was

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trading in the treasury bill pit

2:24
and at that time you could only get five

2:28
percent on a CD except if you had ten

2:31
thousand dollars you could get a six

2:34
month CD that was based on the first six

2:37
month treasury bill right okay and that

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rate was of course set at auction at

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noon on Mondays or 12 30 in fact on

2:44
Mondays but the rate wasn't released

2:46
till about seven o'clock at night

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because they didn't have the computers

2:49
in those days

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but I was down in the pit and I knew

2:53
what the treasury bill was trading at

2:55
and I went wait a second I asked the

2:58
noon producers could I be the last thing

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on the show I'd run over to the TV

3:02
station I called on to my friend on the

3:04
floor and say what's a six-month t-bill

3:06
trading at oh about eight and a quarter

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I'd say wow last week the auction was

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7.97 the rate's going to be a quarter

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percent higher to get on TV and say if

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you've got a CD renewing maturing today

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don't renew until tomorrow the rate will

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be a quarter percent higher in that

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insider trading Terry come on

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used to be called past posting you knew

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the results before but the fact was the

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Futures were telling you it was real I

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knew that sure I mean I became famous

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Infamous and one day uh we got I got a

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call this is fire engine company 97 we

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were out on a run what did you say

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interest rates were going to do so

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people thought I had magic crystal ball

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and I was responsible personally for

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getting a lot of people a lot higher

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yields in those days you could go only

3:55
to the Federal Reserve Bank to buy

3:56
treasury bills right and you had to have

3:58
a certified or cashier's check a piece

4:00
of paper

4:01
and those don't have state income taxes

4:05
attached to the interest either and the

4:06
rates were much higher than the banks

4:08
were paying so I talked about that on TV

4:11
and the FED literally the Federal

4:13
Reserve Bank of Chicago called me up and

4:15
said and I went down there afterward

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they were putting out you know blue blue

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extensions there to guide the crowds

4:22
around the corner because people were

4:24
lined up to buy t-bills the reason I

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tell you that story is because that

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happened to me this week again and the

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world is full circle yeah it has and all

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of a sudden I was on Morning News at

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Chicago I am on WGN news and I and they

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gave me a question

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what can I get for the highest CD rate

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and I quick look down at you know bank

4:47
rate I'm like sure and I said but wait a

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minute

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the six-month treasury bill is trading

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at 3.9 percent that's twice what any

4:57
local bank is offering in a CD right

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here's how you do that remember all of

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you who bought I bonds at my direction

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to get 9.62 we could talk about that

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later you already have a treasury direct

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account now right tab that says buy and

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then put down 26 week t-builts and

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they'll take the money right out of your

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bank and the rate will be likely close

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to four percent that was just before the

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FED spoke that was um because yesterday

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it was been a lifetime since the FED

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spoke

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so what what's happening now

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is a little bit of Back to the Future

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um first of all ordinary people who have

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what I call Chicken money money set

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aside they couldn't sleep at night

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didn't want to risk the stock market

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right as I said this on on radio this

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week they've been getting screwed by the

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Banks sure no banks are saying send

5:46
money we'll give you a toaster right

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they have plenty of money so they

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haven't been paying the high rates so

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we're at a moment where the FED is

5:54
pushing rates up that's just like it was

5:56
in the early 1980s when I first got into

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this game and then consumers are

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figuring out a way now just to get in

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there and buy treasury bills at the

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Monday auction

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and then of course the FED announced

6:07
that it was getting tough so I also

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think something else is about to happen

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that happened before

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I don't think

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people are prepared for the kind of

6:20
recession we might be facing really go

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deeper on that one because I I saw

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um one of the one of the big investors

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forgot his name and he said similar

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things Jamie dimon from Goldman Sachs

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kind of said that as well I mean you

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know as I always say when Terry Savage

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walks in a room most times she is the

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smartest person in that room

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um but yeah

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there's no Crystal Ball but watch this

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the last two recessions the FED has

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bought its way out of where the

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government has bought its way out of it

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when the FED is accommodated so in

6:56
200720 not that those weren't severe

6:58
potential crises that could have really

7:00
wrecked America but in 27 2008 only they

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printed a ton of money and they bailed

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out everything from the automakers to

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you know everything that was a corporate

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ballot and the financial institutions

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you know they were all merged together

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sure the stronger ones bought the weaker

7:18
ones and some live to regret it but the

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fact is the government actively

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saved us from the pain of a severe

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recession and nobody complained at the

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time even I wrote a column at the time

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saying this is in principle this is

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wrong but they're saving us and the same

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thing happened at the start of the

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pandemic I mean I was prepared for a

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market decline of 30 we actually sort of

7:39
had that in one day but then the

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government said no don't worry about it

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it was like Oprah a car for you a car

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for you a stimulus check for you a

7:47
stimulus check for you a PPP loaner you

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know the airlines we can't afford to

7:52
have you laying off people

7:55
and they bought us out of those last two

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recessions so the tune of now we have a

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32 trillion dollar national debt up 8

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trillion in the last eight years both

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political parties

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you know absolutely but

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the fed's not gonna let them buy us out

8:14
of this recession even though it's a

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political year

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and even though for example the

8:20
government will try things like student

8:21
loan forgiveness to buy votes etc etc

8:25
the fed's not going to let them buy

8:26
their way out in fact the FED is

8:28
actually not only causing the recession

8:31
but not only raising rates but sucking

8:33
liquidity out of the economy sellers

8:36
absolutely yes so I don't think anybody

8:40
is quite prepared

8:42
for how painful this recession might be

8:45
and I think the FED might even be

8:47
surprised because just like they let

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inflation get out of hand you know

8:51
transitory not

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I won't hold you to this but when you

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say painful I'm sure that the listeners

8:57
and viewers are like kind of Define that

8:59
they won't hold you to it I won't hold

9:00
you to it but what do you what do you

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say I mean obviously food prices are up

9:04
gas prices are

9:05
well that used to be what do you I mean

9:08
what do you what are you envisioning

9:10
well I I try you know I try not to

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Envision health I like to be on the side

9:15
of the angels I understand

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um here's what here's the thing

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um we could have the worst of all worlds

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which is a inflation is pretty well

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built into our economy now

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um yeah maybe gasoline prices of course

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are coming down Energy prices and maybe

9:31
the potent's war will be over and

9:32
that'll help but we have a lot of

9:35
inflation built into wage demands into

9:37
rental agreements and and uh into the

9:40
pro I mean when Ford Motor Company says

9:42
our profits are going to be squeezed not

9:45
because we can't get stuff anymore we

9:46
can get stuff but the costs are so high

9:49
that we can't raise prices enough well

9:52
they're going to raise prices but

9:53
they're in the meantime profits will be

9:55
squeeze that's not good for stocks and

9:57
so forth FedEx saying the same kind of

9:58
thing so we could have inflation

10:01
and yet the pain of high interest rates

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that impacts the mortgage Market

10:06
um that impacts other parts of the

10:09
economy and the wild card in all of this

10:13
that wasn't like this in 1980s is for

10:17
every there's one person around for

10:20
every two unemployed still unemployed

10:22
for every two job vacancies so we

10:26
haven't seen it in the labor market yet

10:28
we haven't seen unemployment go up

10:31
but and and people have gotten used to

10:34
what's that term um soft quitting or

10:37
yeah that's that's interesting and

10:39
people don't know what that is is people

10:41
going to work and really not working

10:42
that hard I mean in English that's what

10:44
it is they've just kind of internally

10:46
and mentally quit and just waiting to

10:49
get I guess get caught doing

10:51
very Basics okay nobody's trying to

10:54
impress a boss nobody wants to come back

10:56
to the office wait we can do this from

10:58
home we got used to it and the bosses

11:01
who are the generation that grew up

11:02
being bosses the Jamie diamonds at all

11:04
of the world are saying and the Goldman

11:06
Sachs get in here and then you start to

11:09
get some warnings like from Goldman

11:10
Sachs and from many others saying we're

11:12
going to have layoffs we're gonna have

11:13
layoffs right and I don't think the

11:16
general population I'm not talking about

11:18
seniors or those who are forced out

11:21
right because of the pandemic and

11:23
haven't come back but I think the

11:24
Millennials Gen X generation

11:26
they haven't lived through a vast

11:29
unemployment

11:32
haven't involved

11:34
oh my goodness how do I pay the bills

11:37
because the government handed them a

11:38
check the last time it was supposed to

11:39
happen right

11:40
and that's what I mean by painful and I

11:43
I hope it doesn't get that far but you

11:45
had the fat you had Jay Powell saying it

11:48
could be painful it revolves around

11:50
labor and we're not stopping I mean if

11:53
you said it once I wrote down a whole

11:55
list of all the things I was in a little

11:56
press conference if you said it once he

11:58
said it five six seven times we will not

12:00
stop until we break the back of

12:02
inflation even if it's what popped out I

12:05
mean you listen to that we all listen to

12:06
that but you listen differently than

12:08
most what popped out to you that was a

12:12
surprise that that Mr Pyle said

12:14
nothing surprised me he said the same

12:17
things he said before and the market is

12:19
finally beginning to believe it when he

12:21
said it after Jackson Hole and it was

12:24
short and sweet and everybody all summer

12:26
there had been a rally hey we'll look

12:28
past this bed the fed's going to Pivot

12:31
Al and then in Jackson Hole at the end

12:33
of August he said no I meant it we're

12:36
going to be tough and it will be painful

12:37
and that's when the market took its

12:39
first big decline the second big decline

12:42
came just about a week or 10 days ago

12:44
when consumer prices came out and they

12:47
ticked up it was just a one tenth of a

12:49
percent when they were supposed to be

12:50
sliding one tenth of a percent I mean

12:53
we're not talking about a massive

12:54
surprise but the upside not the downside

12:57
Market fell almost 1300 points in one

13:00
day so that's when the market knew Not

13:03
only was Powell meaning what he said but

13:05
inflation was stronger than a lot of

13:08
people had hoped it would be you know

13:10
and that this involved more paint and

13:13
then we had the feds saying yeah 75

13:15
basis points no big surprise 4.2 by the

13:18
end of the year we were at zero about it

13:21
a year ago we're now at three to three

13:25
and a quarter I got another at least 75

13:28
basis points to go this year this

13:31
election year in the middle of this fall

13:32
right I know that's surprising to me by

13:35
the way very surprising I'm happy for

13:37
I'm happy for it but I'm just surprised

13:40
well then they're saying 4.6 next year

13:43
well okay you know Savers are jump up

13:46
and down at least I'm gonna you know see

13:48
bills will be up there over four percent

13:50
in a minute but uh the economy's going

13:52
the business are going but where are we

13:56
going to deploy our capital in the face

13:57
of that kind of the housing market the

14:00
car market I mean this is getting ready

14:02
to unwind was there anything that you

14:04
wish you would have said

14:06
that I wish you would have said no I

14:09
think I mean were you pretty on board

14:10
with the whole thing it's there's

14:12
anything I remember inflation

14:16
and then I'm a student of world history

14:18
I mean inflation out of control I forget

14:20
Germany how about Zimbabwe somewhere in

14:22
a draw of a trillion dollar note from

14:24
Zimbabwe we all have that yeah I love

14:27
that yeah yeah and um I I'll give you

14:29
the best story

14:31
this is okay this is an interesting

14:34
story

14:35
a couple of weeks ago I was going

14:37
through the closet of all my winter

14:38
coats so I've been around a long time so

14:40
I have a lot of coats and thinking I

14:42
should do something with these these and

14:44
um especially since I spend so much time

14:46
in Florida as you know that's right

14:47
that's right

14:49
so I reached in the pocket to see it was

14:52
in and there's always Kleenex in my

14:53
pockets that sometimes I find a pair of

14:55
gloves and I pulled out a piece of paper

14:57
and it was a receipt from 20 I mean I

15:00
keep my clothes it was received from

15:03
2003. a little receipt from a carryout

15:06
from Boston Market and everybody

15:08
remember Boston Market

15:11
yeah it was for

15:13
a half of a chicken and two sides

15:17
remember we used to get the um I love

15:18
that and I love it a lot of stuff and I

15:22
was always a bad girl a slice of

15:24
chocolate cake sure and the receipt was

15:27
for

15:27
8.47 the whole thing the whole thing I

15:32
have it that is around here I the whole

15:34
thing half a chicken oh these little

15:37
thing and they lay it in there and they

15:38
I think they give you cornbread too yeah

15:40
sweet cornbread yeah it was good it was

15:42
really good yeah and and a separate

15:45
piece of chocolate cake which I at for

15:47
8.47

15:49
I mean you could barely get you know you

15:52
can get a Starbucks you grab a venti

15:55
Starbucks for that today so that's

15:57
inflation

15:58
and it slaps you in the face when it's

16:01
like that but you know

16:02
I think if you're listening to Stan's

16:04
podcast

16:06
you might feel yourself pretty insulated

16:08
from inflation but if you're one of the

16:11
people who's living on a fixed income

16:13
yeah okay it's great because it's got a

16:15
cost of living index and that it might

16:18
be significant this year up around eight

16:20
plus percent right but other than that

16:22
if you're living on a fixed income or

16:24
you're low income you're even I know you

16:28
see the headlines about you know

16:29
Starbucks workers striking McDonald's

16:31
working striking and genuinely they're

16:34
low paid workers sure whatever case they

16:37
get is it going to make up for the fact

16:39
that that pushes prices up and they'll

16:40
always be laying behind this is why they

16:43
did so much better

16:44
when there was no inflation even though

16:46
their wages were lower and Powell knows

16:50
that so I believe he's going to Stamp

16:52
Out inflation and that's the end of my

16:54
Soliloquy and it's going to be tough

16:56
we're going to obviously we're going to

16:57
have a page that you can go to Terry's

17:00
site you can look at her she's written a

17:02
couple really good articles she's always

17:04
writing good articles but we're going to

17:06
have that on there how to get to

17:07
treasury direct.gov to buy your I bonds

17:10
and all that stuff

17:11
but um

17:13
um you know we'll have that you can go

17:15
there I think you might have Frozen on

17:17
the screen there Terry I froze let's see

17:20
here I am I'm back there you go you're

17:21
back so the people on the podcast they

17:23
were just listening to me that's good

17:25
um let's let's talk about

17:27
um markets in general I know the people

17:29
were interested in the fed and and you I

17:31
believe you're correct they're going to

17:33
continue and he is Mr Powell is actually

17:36
doing what I hoped but didn't believe he

17:38
would do which would be autonomous and

17:40
independent which is what that was

17:42
designed and not influenced politically

17:45
you know good for him and I'll be the

17:48
first one to say I didn't believe it I I

17:51
wasn't thinking he could do it but he's

17:53
doing it

17:54
and maybe it's because this is the last

17:57
term maybe it's because that's what he's

17:59
supposed to do either way

18:01
you know he's got to do that but let's

18:03
talk about the stock market but before

18:06
you do that there are a couple of people

18:08
out there including my son who is a

18:10
markets guy who had dinner last night

18:12
said this so I want to just uh tip my

18:15
hat to the people who are saying

18:18
wait a minute he's gone too far he

18:22
should pause we all know monetary policy

18:25
works with a lag is this going to be a

18:27
horrendous recession he's going to throw

18:29
it into it

18:30
he should wait and see how it works

18:33
right so I've got a little dinner table

18:35
discussion uh with some business people

18:37
last night and I said you know that's

18:40
because you don't remember oh 1982

18:44
worked and he said the world is

18:45
different than 1982 monetary policy

18:47
Works faster because we can all see it

18:49
faster it's instantaneous you know then

18:51
you have to wait three months for the

18:52
minutes of the FED to come out so too

18:55
deference to those who say

18:58
how else should take his foot off the

19:01
brakes for a while and let's see if this

19:03
is working after all interrupt mortgages

19:05
are slowing but the problem is it's not

19:08
and I continue to argue on the side that

19:11
you point you just made

19:13
the problem is it's not just Financial

19:16
inflation isn't it's it's emotional it's

19:20
in the DNA it's in the cells and you

19:23
don't have to be a PhD Economist you

19:25
could be an ordinary person to

19:27
understand the impact do you understand

19:29
first hardest and fastest when it hits

19:31
you because you only have limited income

19:33
coming in

19:35
that inflation mentality is what has to

19:37
get broken and it might in fact let me

19:41
check that I think it will take Overkill

19:43
to make that happen so you should be

19:45
prepared

19:47
now if you're going to go back to the

19:48
markets be prepared for Overkill because

19:51
that was the volcker lesson he let up on

19:53
the breaks too soon

19:55
and then he had to do a double dip you

19:56
know I got mortgage rates right yeah I I

20:00
do I do think that um I always tell

20:02
people that I have cowboy boots older

20:04
than most financial advisors I mean

20:07
literally and we're gonna we're gonna

20:09
throw your Couture coats in there you

20:11
got Couture coats that are older than

20:13
most people giving Financial advice

20:15
meaning that we both have scars from the

20:18
past of those really tough events and a

20:22
lot of these kids just have never seen

20:25
it they've been in a bull market since

20:26
they've been alive no it's not their

20:28
fault it's just what they know they only

20:31
know what they know so going dovetailing

20:33
into that

20:34
let's talk about the markets here the

20:37
stock market and the fact I'd like for

20:39
you to comment obviously on how Bitcoin

20:41
is not acting independently or excuse me

20:45
crypto in general that's been

20:47
interesting to watch as well dive in

20:49
Terry

20:51
I think the two most interesting things

20:54
about the markets that the first is

20:58
Bitcoin and the second is gold I'll do

21:01
Bitcoin first

21:02
I know that the blockchain is going to

21:05
revolutionize sure our lives and the

21:09
technology behind it you're correct and

21:11
I've you and I we've talked about this

21:13
before sure but the idea that it would

21:16
be a refuge from the U.S dollar please

21:19
the entire world

21:21
is buying US Dollars and that's why uh

21:25
Canada raised rates Great Britain raised

21:27
rates uh the Euro Japan

21:30
is Japan Japan holy man for the first

21:35
seconds before the Millennium

21:37
um you know why because the dollar is so

21:40
strong our rates are high and on top of

21:42
all our horrendous problems were

21:44
perceived as the safest place in the

21:46
world given what's going on in Europe

21:47
and natural gas and it still is correct

21:50
coming here pushes the dollar up so if

21:53
you are in France or Germany and you

21:56
want to buy something from the U.S you

21:57
have to scrape together a lot more Euros

21:59
to buy one dollars worth of goods

22:01
whereas by the way if you're an American

22:03
Tourist not now but a month ago you

22:06
could go over there my son did and and

22:08
we have a wonderful vacation because the

22:11
dollar was almost at parity and they

22:13
hadn't yet raised their hotel rooms and

22:15
the rental car rates and so forth nice

22:17
so we have a strong dollar and it's the

22:20
idea that Bitcoin was is going to

22:22
replace the dollar that'll only happen I

22:25
mean it might happen in the uses of

22:27
Commerce because it's a natural sure

22:30
solution the idea of a currency that's

22:33
digital

22:35
but it's it's not but the but worse than

22:38
that though is

22:41
gold it hasn't it's like sixteen hundred

22:43
and fifty dollars an ounce I know

22:45
inflation that's causing the FED to be

22:47
scared to death

22:48
and gold has done nothing the gold bugs

22:51
is what we call them right the gold bugs

22:53
that's been out there I mean they have

22:55
literally they've got to be scratching

22:58
the hair out of their head at this point

23:00
because it doesn't make sense it doesn't

23:02
make sense to me either and I'm not

23:04
sitting here saying but wait it'll

23:05
happen I I who knows right I'd rather

23:09
own treasuries but it doesn't mean that

23:11
I don't still have gold left the last

23:13
time I bought gold was in 2008 when gold

23:17
plunged under a thousand to about eight

23:19
something and that was the last time I

23:21
bought gold but the fact is I never sold

23:23
it either and it was up to 2000 just a

23:26
not even nine or ten months ago now when

23:28
Jamie dimon came out yesterday and said

23:30
that Bitcoin is an organized Ponzi

23:32
scheme is that extreme

23:34
see you see now his first of all he's

23:37
he's been saying that all along

23:41
the use of Bitcoin and ethereum and not

23:45
only that about 100. it was right has

23:49
been

23:50
it's been

23:52
first of all the SEC hasn't stepped in

23:54
to regulate it and they will and they

23:56
will they will but up till now did you

23:59
read those scams of those I didn't even

24:00
know about it or I would have written a

24:02
column and waved the flag and said don't

24:03
do that you could lend money and get a

24:05
19 return through these crypto exchanges

24:08
I didn't hear about it until they blew

24:10
up and then my reaction was of course

24:12
they blew up I mean that's just

24:14
if it sounds too good to be true it is

24:16
every single time I don't care what

24:17
product it is period please don't forget

24:20
that always always

24:23
you're not going to beat your neighbor

24:25
you're not going to be the person you're

24:27
not going to be that person okay but

24:29
sometimes someone offers it to you it's

24:32
a great deal

24:34
alternative Investments

24:36
do you if they're offering it to you

24:39
don't you think they're making something

24:40
off you I mean since when did anyone get

24:43
so generous to offer you a double-digit

24:44
return on I can't miss alternative oh my

24:47
gosh run the other way I always tell

24:49
people that if someone knows really

24:52
truly how to

24:54
make money double digit returns you're

24:57
never going to meet them okay you're

24:59
never going to meet them no one knows

25:00
who they are they're running under the

25:02
radar screen and they're making tons of

25:04
money why you're not there's no

25:05
philanthropist out there okay giving

25:07
away ideas but yes um that bothers me

25:11
that people are

25:13
desperate and feel desperate enough that

25:15
they think that crypto is their way out

25:18
but let's let's put crypto aside here

25:19
let's talk about the markets in general

25:21
okay

25:22
um

25:23
what is your sentiment here do you still

25:26
think we have ways to go down or is it

25:28
just going to be choppy from here on in

25:30
well I'll go out on a limb I I think we

25:33
have a long ways to go down

25:35
okay

25:36
um

25:37
[Music]

25:38
I just

25:40
and I I think you know the February

25:42
they're talking about higher and longer

25:44
I think it's for the market it's lower

25:46
and longer the other thing is we've all

25:48
seen markets bounce back nobody I'm not

25:51
saying this will happen again but in the

25:53
decade of the 70s the Dow was over a

25:56
thousand and for the first time I kind

25:57
of remember that happening in uh you

26:00
said a thousand right it was over one

26:02
thousand that's what I'm saying people

26:04
young people listen to this are like

26:05
what she just said it's the olden days

26:07
right okay and and then it went to a low

26:10
in 1972 of 5

26:13
70.01

26:15
I was trading and um I know I'm old you

26:19
just can't see my grade here so I had

26:21
that fixed I'm still glamorous Terry

26:23
Savage I'm telling you right now so uh

26:26
and but by 1982 do you remember when

26:30
Nixon slammed the gold window and on

26:32
August 13th the Dow was still around

26:34
800. a decade

26:37
of no progress I don't think that's

26:40
gonna happen again we live in a

26:41
different world everything yeah we did

26:42
yeah we we really do but what I'm saying

26:44
is the the it's always going to bounce

26:47
it's always going to bounce mentality

26:49
it's so ingrained I'm not praying for

26:51
lower prices but I think if the if the

26:54
economy does take this kind of a

26:57
recessionary tailspin for a while then

26:59
that you can't forecast earnings are

27:01
going up for and that's what supports

27:04
the market that are multiples and then a

27:06
in a bear Market both multiples and

27:08
earnings contract but I never can pick

27:11
the bottom you know the bill doesn't

27:14
ring at the top or the bottom me and you

27:15
both know that never does 30 years ago I

27:19
wrote my first book Terry Savage talks

27:21
money and I I wrote a chapter that I've

27:23
included in an every I've written four

27:25
other books since it said

27:27
um here was the example

27:30
if you charge

27:31
so not even back then if you charge two

27:34
thousand dollars on your credit card

27:36
and you pay the minimum monthly payment

27:39
your finest 19.8 because 30 years ago it

27:43
was

27:44
okay and you pay 40 a year for the

27:46
annual fee how long I would go to the

27:48
audience as I went running around doing

27:50
speeches how long do you think it'll

27:51
take you to pay it off

27:54
and oh you know seven years 14 years it

27:57
will take you

27:59
31 years in two months the way the

28:01
minimums are calculated and along the

28:03
way on top of the two thousand dollars

28:04
you spent you'll paid another eighty two

28:07
hundred dollars in finance charges that

28:09
was people would guess and I'd say you

28:12
know I don't care what you bought that

28:13
you charge for two thousand dollars it

28:15
was Furniture it'll be at the Salvation

28:17
Army you know but if if it was a

28:20
restaurant meal it was down the drain

28:21
long ago

28:23
quote and I use this and if you bought

28:25
clothes even if they come back in style

28:28
in 31 years and you kept them you won't

28:29
be able to fit into them and I could see

28:31
down in the basement of this house and

28:33
you can see a wardrobe artist that yeah

28:36
I can fit into

28:37
but if you took the same two thousand

28:39
dollars every year or the first year

28:42
that you spent this year and put it into

28:44
an IRA of the S P 500 the average

28:48
historical return of 10 instead of

28:51
having all those old clothes and

28:52
interest payments ten thousand dollars

28:54
down the trade you'd have 46 000 or

28:57
whatever it was and if you did it every

28:59
year for the next 30 Years you'd have a

29:02
half a million dollars and if you did it

29:04
for 50 years because you're 20 now you'd

29:06
have 2.1 million dollars

29:09
so where recently someone asked me this

29:11
question what advice would I give to a

29:13
young person I went back and I went geez

29:14
31 years ago I did that

29:17
yeah and you know it works and it worked

29:20
out to be like under 40 a week to do it

29:23
so I don't call turns in the market the

29:26
the long lessons are not just the

29:28
memories of the bear Market but the fact

29:30
that if you consistently invest and

29:33
don't get scared out when the markets

29:35
are down and and don't get too

29:37
extravagant when the markets are up but

29:39
you just keep putting it in over the

29:41
long run it's always worked through

29:43
through all kinds of tough times are you

29:46
talking to the Boomers as well the

29:48
retirees I mean because this is skittish

29:50
times for them let's talk Boomers for a

29:53
second okay well you know I created you

29:55
know I always talk about the Bulls and

29:57
the Bears that's what you asked me to

29:58
talk about but I always added a third

30:00
category and I'm famous for this in my

30:02
circle said the Bulls the Bears and the

30:04
chickens yes

30:06
chickens chicken money is money you

30:08
cannot afford to lose

30:10
and you know sometimes it is not a

30:12
function of age necessarily it's your

30:14
circumstances in life but particularly

30:17
when you're a boomer and it was really

30:19
tough for the last years I've been

30:20
talking chicken money chicken money and

30:22
they would all come back but it's paying

30:24
a half of one percent in the bank and

30:25
the stock market's going up without me

30:27
yeah but you sleep at night and now

30:29
you're getting your reward but you need

30:31
some stocks even in retirement because

30:34
over the long run every 20-year period

30:36
stocks have beat inflation but when

30:39
you're 65 or 73 20 years is a long long

30:42
run so unless you're planning to leave

30:45
it to your kids you need a greater

30:47
proportion of chicken money or stand as

30:51
the kinds of things okay I'm turning the

30:53
question around

30:54
okay so I always said chicken money

30:57
short term safe no possibility of loss

31:00
but there are some products that you

31:02
have yeah that what do you tell Baby

31:04
Boomers here's what I tell people and I

31:06
did a recent video called a lot of

31:08
people it went viral you've won the game

31:10
why are you still playing there's a lot

31:12
of people out there that's that I say

31:14
their rates are at a point now where if

31:17
you can you can live off the interest

31:18
and never touch the principal if you can

31:20
do that in combination with Social

31:22
Security my question to you is why don't

31:23
you

31:25
and it's hard for people to miss out

31:27
it's hard for people not to be involved

31:29
they've been ingrained in their head

31:30
that they have to be in the markets they

31:32
listen to people like you it makes total

31:34
sense but what I'm saying to them for

31:36
their income floor in combination with

31:38
t-bills CDs multi-year guarantee

31:40
annuities which are the highest yielding

31:42
fixed products on the planet

31:43
if you can if you can never touch the

31:46
principle and live off the interest why

31:48
wouldn't you do that you've won the game

31:50
why are you still playing so that's my

31:53
take on it I also am telling people that

31:57
when you retire you might want to retire

32:00
not only from your work but also from

32:02
your daily interactions with the markets

32:04
I'm not saying that don't have things in

32:06
the markets but in proportion

32:09
um if you have it allocated properly

32:12
you're not going to follow it and care

32:14
as much and live and die with each blip

32:16
and and Jim Cramer talking point the

32:19
point is I think people need to learn

32:21
how to retire from their jobs which

32:23
seems to be easy for a lot of people but

32:24
also tracking markets because most

32:27
people don't know

32:29
um and they're not you and they don't

32:31
they're not passionate about it so

32:33
that's kind of what I'm saying right now

32:35
and I feel very passionate about those

32:37
messages

32:38
I have two questions for you as a result

32:40
of that first of all you mentioned

32:42
multi-year guaranteed annuities see the

32:45
annuities that's what they're to see it

32:47
inside of it right so

32:49
um what are the yields now and are they

32:51
gonna raise those as fast as the FED is

32:53
Right pushing treasure see treasurable

32:55
rates are the answer the answer is no to

32:57
are they going to raise it let me let me

32:59
answer a couple things at the time of

33:00
this tape and please everyone look at

33:02
the date because this is Evergreen

33:04
content but at this point in time you

33:07
know three year you can get way over

33:08
four percent five years four point five

33:11
seven years pushing the five percent

33:13
range guaranteed

33:15
um but annuity companies glance at the

33:18
FED

33:19
um it's all for them they're all life

33:21
insurance companies that issue these

33:22
products Terry they have and right now

33:25
on a two-year treasury note you can get

33:28
four percent or the day after correct

33:30
absolutely and I'm all for I'm all for

33:32
that because again I go back to winning

33:35
the game in combination you're choosing

33:37
things that protect your principle but

33:39
annuity life insurance companies have

33:40
life insurance products lifetime income

33:42
products and Legacy Bond portfolios and

33:45
then they look at the FED but the

33:46
biggest thing that drives it is capacity

33:48
meaning that there's so much money

33:50
coming into the insurance companies now

33:52
they're they don't have to raise rates

33:54
they don't have to follow in a linear

33:56
fashion with the Fed so when people say

33:58
well I'm waiting on the Fest and I'm

33:59
waiting on the fed well first of all if

34:01
you're buying lifetime income products

34:02
it's about life expectancy not interest

34:04
rates so you're looking at the wrong

34:07
thing and if you're buying mygas and

34:09
you're waiting for the fed the last time

34:11
Mr Powell raised we had three companies

34:13
that same week lower their guarantees

34:16
why because the capacity levels they're

34:18
reaching those levels so we're reaching

34:20
really interesting times in the in the

34:23
annuity Market as well on the fixed rate

34:24
Market

34:25
but again with who's the winner of all

34:29
this Cherry it's the Boomers it's the

34:30
Savers it's the people that want to live

34:32
off their money and not touch the

34:34
interest and think back to the Jimmy

34:35
Carter days

34:36
I'm telling you this is these are good

34:39
times for Boomers the only thing I tell

34:40
people it's hard to the fear of missing

34:43
out is tough and I did a video call it's

34:46
okay to miss out and I'm preaching to

34:49
the to the choir but some of the choir

34:51
doesn't believe me you know because they

34:53
still want to be apart I found it hard

34:55
it's hard yeah you know twice in my

34:57
lifetime my son has laughed at me once

34:59
was in 2000. and when I had all my

35:02
treasuries and chicken money and I just

35:04
this is it this is what lets me it's a

35:06
lot of money too but um and once and

35:09
just recently Mom this is ridiculous

35:11
we're having seven percent inflation or

35:13
five percent inflation you're getting a

35:14
half of one percent I know but my time

35:16
will come and I kept saying that yes

35:18
okay you just talked about another

35:20
concept and it raised people's ears out

35:22
there you talked about being able to

35:25
only live off the income of the interest

35:29
of your principal correct or the

35:31
interest whatever you can

35:33
I think maybe I talked to a different

35:36
class of people and you do people come

35:37
to you with money I talk to people on

35:39
television and radio and it's a wider

35:42
audience I I could hear anyway a

35:46
distinct murmur from our audience even

35:48
though they're your people not mine that

35:50
the idea there are a lot of people out

35:53
of there that just don't want to run out

35:55
of money correct uh the people are

35:57
living off their income presumably

35:59
they'll have something like they bought

36:00
long-term care insurance so it doesn't

36:02
get dissipated by by that sure and they

36:05
presumably want to leave it to their

36:06
kids but there is a whole lot of other

36:09
people out there who just don't want to

36:12
run out before their life runs of money

36:14
before their life and that's what the

36:16
just so talk to those people for a

36:19
minute yeah that's that's lifetime

36:20
income products I mean and let me

36:22
address we're at a stage now Terry that

36:25
I think to buy an immediate annuity or a

36:28
lifetime income product that is our last

36:29
resort the first thing we're going to

36:31
make we're going to look at when people

36:32
call me and let let me be let me

36:34
disclaim this real quick

36:36
the vast majority of Americans are

36:38
living paycheck to paycheck they have

36:40
less than ten thousand dollars to their

36:41
name and my heart goes out to them every

36:43
single day but the majority of people

36:45
that reach me or reach you are people

36:47
that that have scrimped and saved and

36:49
worked hard and put some money away not

36:51
saying the other people don't work hard

36:52
but it just has happened that you've

36:53
been fortunate but what I'm telling

36:55
people now we're at an interest rate

36:56
level that the first thing we're going

36:59
to try to figure out and always ask

37:00
people you know what's your income floor

37:02
let's add it up Social Security dividend

37:04
payments whatever what do you need to

37:05
live can we buy products that will

37:09
create interest CDs treasuries mygas

37:12
that you don't ever have to test the

37:13
principal because that's the dream never

37:15
touch the principle just live off the

37:16
interest

37:17
and people say but I want to buy an

37:19
immediate annuity that's fine that's a

37:21
turnkey approach but I think it's our

37:23
last resort the only way that I'm going

37:24
to come off of that is as we get older

37:27
there's some cognitive decline issues

37:29
that we need to address whereas lifetime

37:31
income guaranteed products like

37:32
immediate annuities or deferred income

37:34
annuities qlex those type of things they

37:36
do have their place because we're all

37:37
going to get there if we live long

37:39
enough that we're not hitting on all

37:40
cylinders so it's an interesting time in

37:43
my world all right now okay let me say

37:47
this the acknowledgment of what you said

37:48
30 of Social Security recipients

37:52
depend on social security for ninety

37:54
percent I know I know we're not talking

37:56
to that and but we're not

37:58
we're talking about

38:00
probably tune in because you because

38:01
your choice all right so now

38:03
let's say a 65 year old woman and I come

38:05
to you I know that if you give me an

38:07
immediate annuity and that whatever it

38:10
is 2 000 a month looks great now sure

38:12
you know by rule of 72 at seven percent

38:15
inflation it's going to be spending time

38:17
in 10 years

38:19
so what is the so that's your last

38:22
choice so what are you going to tell me

38:24
is I'm 70 maybe or something very easy

38:26
it's very simple I can't believe that

38:28
I'm the only one out here really talking

38:30
about it but people people say Okay Stan

38:33
we're gonna we can live we're gonna get

38:35
four four and a half percent we're gonna

38:36
peel off the answers we're never going

38:38
to test the principle

38:39
and we're going to do that as long as we

38:41
can and as these things mature we

38:42
hopefully roll them to higher interest

38:43
rates but then the question is but what

38:45
happens if we go back to low interest

38:47
rates then we look at immediate

38:50
annuities they might Force our hand to

38:52
what's called annuitize at that point in

38:54
time so what I'm saying is it's kind of

38:57
like that Mel Gibson movie where he was

38:59
he was uh the the warrior in Scotland

39:01
and they're charging him and he's

39:03
telling all his people hold hold hold

39:05
hold you know in other words don't

39:07
attack yet I'm telling people to hold on

39:10
the annuitization unless that's just

39:12
what they want to do if we can solve it

39:14
by just peeling off the interest let's

39:16
do that so what product is it so that's

39:19
a multi-year guarantee annuity that's

39:20
the CD type annuity so if we're talking

39:22
about how to do it in the world there's

39:25
really three products there's treasuries

39:27
there's CDs whether they're brokered CDs

39:30
or Bank CDs but one's sipc insured one's

39:33
FDIC insured and then there's multi-year

39:35
guarantee annuities all three of those

39:37
products protect your principal all

39:39
three of those products have a

39:40
guaranteed yield that's contractual

39:43
there's not a hypothetical theoreticals

39:45
and all three of those products have no

39:47
annual fees so with just those three

39:50
products

39:51
if you can pull it off then fantastic

39:53
let's pull it off and if rates go down

39:55
then what do we do then we annuitize

39:58
just enough to meet that income floor

40:01
and and that and and in combination with

40:03
what you're saying which is having a

40:05
portion in the markets if the income

40:07
floor is taken care of and we have a

40:09
good strategy to go get that

40:11
then you're going to be a better

40:12
investor anyway because you're not going

40:13
to disrupt those Investments and peel

40:16
off money because I I truly believe the

40:18
four percent rules dead been dead for a

40:20
while weight fowl blew it up recently

40:22
and then

40:24
but a lot of people are saying but wait

40:26
a second how do I peel off income from

40:28
my multi-year guaranteed annuity just

40:31
like you do with the CD just like you do

40:32
with the CDs okay that you can there are

40:35
multi-year guarantee news that say just

40:37
send me that interest every month

40:39
just send it to me every month and then

40:41
at the end of the duration with like

40:43
five year then we'll decide whether you

40:45
know we send all the money back to you

40:46
or we do it again do you have people

40:48
doing this in their Iris all day long I

40:51
know all day long I see here's the thing

40:54
about about let's just say investments

40:57
in general but let's talk about these

40:59
type of annuities

41:01
um buying a new is you're buying a

41:02
contractual guarantee it doesn't matter

41:04
if it's a Roth traditional or

41:06
non-qualified what happens is when you

41:08
pull money out that then the taxation is

41:10
different obviously but you're still

41:12
buying guarantees I you know me I'm

41:14
pounding the table you own a young

41:16
contractual guarantees only I don't do

41:18
any hypotheticals or theoreticals but I

41:20
think we're at a really interesting time

41:21
and I'm applauding

41:23
what the fed's doing because what he's

41:25
giving he's giving people choices they

41:28
don't have to annuitize they can live

41:30
off their money and treasury direct.gov

41:33
or go to my site and look at the migrace

41:35
or bankrate.com for CDs you can do it

41:38
you don't need to pay a fee you can do

41:40
this thing and um and then following

41:42
people like Terry I mean this is you can

41:44
do it you're right there I'll tell

41:46
people you know my last video was

41:49
um can you really cross the retirement

41:51
Finish Line can you do it can you really

41:53
do it you're right there and I'm like

41:55
it's a lot of people just can't because

41:57
they don't want to miss the next apple

41:58
or Bitcoin or but my point is this and

42:01
then

42:02
oh here's my here's my last point if you

42:05
can get foreign if your goal in the

42:07
market is seven and let's just say and

42:09
you and I both know if you can get seven

42:10
percent year after year after year on on

42:12
the street they'll build a statue for

42:14
you you know but let's just say historic

42:16
average 10 with dividends reinvested I

42:19
understand that I understand but you

42:20
know people don't people don't hold like

42:22
that my point is seven percent is the

42:25
guy no that's the reason you have the

42:26
nice building in the background

42:28
um if people if let's just say your goal

42:30
is seven percent and you can get four

42:32
and a half contractual or I'm talking

42:33
about my world or four in a CD or seven

42:36
plus in a in a in an i Bond okay if you

42:40
could do that then why are you putting

42:41
your money at risk for the extra couple

42:43
hundred basis points that's my question

42:45
to people yeah that's what okay you're

42:49
right you know what you understanding

42:50
the same message is

42:52
especially to this stage

42:55
don't take that train anymore you took

42:58
the train to work every day you looked

43:01
at the market every day you don't have

43:03
to do that anymore the chicken money is

43:05
good now the chicken money for chicken

43:09
money can do it you can live off the

43:11
chicken money right and if you quote

43:14
that's the Savage truth Terry Savage

43:16
it's true and you can you have to dig in

43:17
the principle a little bit you did you

43:20
worked so hard for it I I just hate a 93

43:24
year old woman called me

43:26
I'm gonna I literally got on the

43:29
conference call with her she was in a

43:31
some mutual funds and I said to the guy

43:34
sell that this is three weeks ago sell

43:37
that and leave and sell half of it she

43:40
was a little bit left that's a little

43:43
bit left and she said Terry I said

43:45
that's all going in the money market

43:47
right now but there's no

43:49
you will sleep you're 93. I didn't

43:53
exactly and you know and there are those

43:55
peoples out there that's the 85 year old

43:58
options Trader that doesn't care and

44:00
they know what they're doing great then

44:01
do your thing but for the rest of us out

44:03
there I always tell people Market's

44:05
tough because it's like surfing beside a

44:08
cruise ship you can catch a wave

44:09
sometime but most of the time you're

44:11
going to get sucked under the boat and

44:12
the other thing too is you know they let

44:15
us peons in from 9 30 to 4 every day and

44:17
they trade trade 24 7 365. what's your

44:21
opinion on that how do you answer a

44:22
person and go well that's not fair when

44:24
I see after market trading what do you

44:26
tell them you can do that look I am a

44:28
full disclosure I'm on the board of

44:29
directors for 20 years CME Group parent

44:32
of the Chicago Market too right the word

44:34
of trade so what

44:36
um there is global trading the world

44:37
exists outside of our time zone look if

44:40
let me just fully disclose if I were a

44:44
great Trader I wouldn't be on this

44:46
computer with you I'd be sitting trading

44:48
now even if it's after hours that's the

44:50
reason you're not selling Terry Savage

44:52
trading systems for two thousand dollars

44:54
I sell nothing I get no endorsement fee

44:57
I am totally

44:59
what did you

45:01
produce yours yes exactly because I ate

45:04
my own cooking but I also realized long

45:07
long ago when I had the edge I was on

45:09
the floor that didn't mean I was a great

45:11
Trader I am a really good long-term

45:13
investor I have some really bad stuff up

45:16
on my gold side Tower with a bad

45:17
long-term stuff but I've had some great

45:20
I mean I bought Amazon the I remember

45:24
the day I learned that they sold more

45:27
than books how many years ago was that

45:29
oh yeah

45:32
forever and never think about it I

45:35
bought hologic the day I took my first

45:37
bone density scanned maybe 25 years ago

45:39
and I said there's a machine you don't

45:41
have to get inside of it and they can

45:43
tell you and I every once in a while I

45:45
look at the stack I think and whenever

45:46
this way to buy stocks right there is is

45:48
buy what gets your attention that makes

45:51
sense yeah and I mostly use funds now

45:54
especially now so look the message is

45:58
everybody tunes into you because you

46:01
have something unique you you really

46:04
have a way of helping people well that's

46:06
what I do in my go to terrysavage.com

46:09
you can read my comments I don't sell in

46:11
there nobody pays no ads no clicks no

46:13
anything even though we're going to have

46:14
links to your books just in case oh yeah

46:17
The Savage truth I mean it's on Amazon

46:18
but that's no big deal now okay um look

46:20
the whole thing is

46:22
there are not a lot of people around out

46:24
there

46:25
that could take you by the hand

46:28
and Lead You Away from the giant because

46:31
I said it's a giant Financial Services

46:33
industry which is spending all that

46:36
money on television ads follow the path

46:38
to retirement we of course we take care

46:40
of you sure look at all the money

46:43
they're spending on the ads who are they

46:45
whose money is it it's the money they

46:46
get and fees from you

46:49
um I want to mention one other platform

46:51
nothing like this but I do a podcast

46:54
with the gal that created wealth

46:57
ramp.com that's Pam Kruger sure created

47:01
match.com for fee only yeah

47:05
financial advisors you have to have her

47:07
on the yeah and the whole point of it is

47:11
that um you will be with someone who's

47:13
not getting commissions can do a

47:16
complete financial plan and you she

47:18
personally matches yeah I I love the

47:21
only planners I've had people on before

47:23
that that do that we got to wind this

47:25
thing up but I'm gonna throw I'm gonna

47:27
throw a curveball at you because

47:28
typically what I do with people as I say

47:31
um mic drop moment but I'm going to say

47:32
mic drop mama where you're going to wow

47:34
us Terry but it's got to be a horse

47:37
analogy because you're a equestrian at

47:40
and you're wonderful at it so I need a

47:43
mic drop moment where you work in a

47:45
horse analogy go

47:48
well at one time I was married I was

47:51
married to a commodity Trader and he

47:53
said your horses are my worst commodity

47:55
spread I go short oats and come out a

47:57
long horse

48:01
that's pretty good look at do as I say

48:04
not as I do yes I do have horses I show

48:06
horses as a matter of fact and it'll

48:08
never show up on my website that's my

48:10
everybody cat everybody's loud a passion

48:13
it doesn't come up to be purely

48:16
Financial but if I I'm just extending

48:19
brought me to a point where I'd never

48:20
thought of before when you said you

48:22
don't have to play the game anymore yep

48:24
if your passion is watching the markets

48:26
that's fine set aside some money right

48:28
but don't have a heart attack over the

48:30
markets now you've worked so long to get

48:32
to this place of Financial Security that

48:34
you can watch this podcast

48:35
set some chicken money aside be patient

48:38
set up a plan do something in the way of

48:41
income for life at some point sure and

48:44
you'll be glad you did the the race goes

48:47
to the person not who has the most at

48:49
the end but who enjoyed it the most

48:50
along the way

48:52
as I always tell people there's three

48:53
phases of retirement and this came from

48:55
a good friend of mine Steve Harris

48:56
there's go go slow go and no go let's

48:59
let's do the go go

49:01
really let's if you're in go go let's go

49:03
get it because you're getting ready to

49:05
get into slogo and then there will be no

49:07
go so as as I tell people this is this

49:10
is my motivational saying of the day

49:12
that all my clients laugh when I say it

49:14
there's no U-Hauls behind her says Terry

49:16
Savage exactly you see that if you see

49:19
one

49:21
um I told my Consultants the other day

49:23
and I'll close with this is that they're

49:25
always wanting me to go out and promote

49:27
and all I said I said I tell you what

49:28
you do buy me a really Decked Out purse

49:32
with a really good stereo system and

49:35
then attach a attach a U-Haul and put my

49:37
logo on and put and then just let me

49:39
drive around and talk about lifetime

49:40
income and guarantees they're like

49:42
that's a little aggressive I'm like no

49:44
that's beautiful marketing is what that

49:46
is that think about if I did that road

49:48
show Tara you come through Chicago and

49:51
you didn't agree well you come to

49:55
Chicago we'll put you I could get out I

49:57
could actually get out of the casket and

49:58
go you know it would it could be

50:00
dramatic I mean you know

50:05
think about that Terry would you do a

50:08
podcast with me

50:09
doing that podcast anywhere you go I'm

50:12
going again well listen Terry Savage

50:15
always a pleasure and I want to thank

50:17
everybody that joined us on all the

50:19
major podcast platforms and the YouTube

50:21
channel fun with annuities we will see

50:23
you next time

50:28
[Music]