Paul Merriman: 7 Things You Should Be Doing With Your Retirement Portfolio

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welcome to fun with annuities with your

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host me stan the annuity man america's

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annuity agent can annuities be fun can

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contractual guarantees be fun

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absolutely they can find out the brutal

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facts about annuities with no sales

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pitches or high pressure nonsense just

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the brutal and factual annuity truth

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which is all you need to hear

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let's have some fun with annuities and

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let's have that fun start right now

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[Music]

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welcome to fun with annuities i'm your

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host stan the annuity man america's

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annuity agent licensed in all 50 states

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i am so glad you joined me for this you

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saw the title you saw who was on it

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you know he's a superstar and if you

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clicked and you say you know i wonder

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who this person is then you need to

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crawl out of the rock that you're living

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under because today's guest

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is financial royalty himself paul

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merriman

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thank you so much for joining us again

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i'm playing this one for my wife she's

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got to hear this yeah

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you're very kind every time

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yeah paul is an interesting cat in my

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opinion because he's one of those guys

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that if you're hanging out with him or

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talking to him there's no way to be

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depressed he's like glass half full and

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that's one of the things i love about

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him because i'm not always like that but

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he is he just seems to me like he's

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living life for the day

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he's living like my motto i always tell

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my clients there's no u-hauls behind

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herself so you need to maximize every

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single day

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and i think he's um you know he's that

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he's that guy now as with all of our

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celebrity guests the last time paul was

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on and hopefully beyond the future but

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this time as well we're going to have

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replays we'll have links to everything

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we've got some special links we're going

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to put up there for with some of his

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portfolios and he he has no problem with

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that because he's all about helping

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people which which leads us into my

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first question paul

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um

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you always say there's seven things that

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you're trying to help people do

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there's seven things you've narrowed

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them down to seven let's go over those

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seven what are those seven

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well

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by the way if they would let me i'd give

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them 20. okay but my wife won't let me

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go above seven but but

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basically it's this

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i am not an investment advisor anymore i

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haven't been an investment advisor since

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2012

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i am 100

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teacher

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and what i'm trying to do

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is for do-it-yourself investors to give

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them the information they need

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to make the same decision i would want

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them to make if i were an advisor to

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them

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but in order to do that

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i have to produce all of the tables and

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the information

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that i would lay out to a prospective

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client

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so all of a sudden the do-it-yourself

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investor is not only the client but the

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advisor

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so what do they need to know these are

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the the big seven number one

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what equity asset classes should they

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have in their portfolio

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which are the asset classes that

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historically do the best and none of

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them are good all the time but that

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leads to the next thing you need to know

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is how do you combine those different

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equity asset classes to give you a

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portfolio so that maybe when one is weak

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another is strong and there's tons tons

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of evidence going all the way back to

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1928 that we share with people in this

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regard and then

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how much fixed income yes the equity is

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the gas and the fixed income is the

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break i'm 78 years old i have no way i'm

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going to have my foot all gas i'm about

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50 break and 50 gas but for a young

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person it should be all gas and so how

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much fixed income and we show the

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information to help people decide

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what should be that combination

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and then we get into

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okay if you are accumulating

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what are the things you should do in

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terms of putting the portfolio together

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for an accumulator and then of course

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there's the person who's in distribution

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that's the retiree and we show them i

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mean dozens and dozens of tables

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that reflect

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two very major ways to take money out of

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those investments

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and we show it to them at three percent

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in four and five and six what would

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happen historically uh to to a person's

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money and then of course everybody needs

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a glide path now you may not think of it

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when you do it

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but the guy glide path starts when a

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child is born in theory

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we encourage parents and grandparents to

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take steps immediately to put that child

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on a glide path which means all equities

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when they're young i'm talking for

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long-term money and then as they get

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older more and more and more fixed

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income

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and then finally

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what i personally believe is you can

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give people all of these numbers to

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study these these different combinations

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but if you don't give them the names of

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the etfs the names of the vanguard the

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fidelity the t rowe price the schwab

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funds to do it with

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they probably won't do it so we have

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done and i'm sorry to talk so much stan

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but we've done everything that we know

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to put that information in front of

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somebody so if they know themselves and

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this is the challenge i can't know you i

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can only know the history of

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combinations of different kinds of

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investments right you

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have to figure out you

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if you're going to do it yourself

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and as you know in your business stan

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most people don't know themselves as

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well as they should that is a huge

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challenge so let's go through them one

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at a time number one is what so people

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you have to write it down everyone but i

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want you to kind of process it in your

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head that's what i want so let's go

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number one is what bullet point number

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one is to figure out a way to identify

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what equity asset classes you should

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have

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you see warren buffett said

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that to be a success you only have to do

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a very few things right as long as you

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don't do too many things wrong well wall

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street's got about what 500 different

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things they'd like you to do

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i don't have 500 things i'd like you to

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do i'd like to make i do make the case

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for having yes some s p 500 and some

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large cap values right and some small i

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mean there are asset classes that have a

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very long history

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and then that next item of course is to

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figure out how to put them together so

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that's number two is figure out how to

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put them together okay let me wet your

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appetite with just one of these

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portfolios tested back to 1928. it's a

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very simple portfolio 25

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each s p 500

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large cap value small cap blend small

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cap value

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when you put those four together

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not only do you get a better return than

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the s p 500 by about two percent a year

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but you do it at way less risk do this

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again when you look one day at a time

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stand not one day one week one month i

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understand but over a matter of a few

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years way less volatile and do those

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percentages again paul

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25

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each

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s p 500 the granddaddy of them all high

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high quality mostly growth right and

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then large value companies that are all

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kind of out of favor in one way or

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another

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and then we all know that small over

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time is more risky and so we want some

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small

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blend a small blend is some value and

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some growth and then we want some

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because the

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the gold ring of investing historically

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is small cap value the premium is at

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least historically i've always got to

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say that because none of us can know

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what the future is going to bring but at

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least looking backwards it is by far the

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biggest return

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and by the way

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interestingly enough

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the risk is not as high as people might

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expect for the huge difference in return

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so that's number three

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right well uh you know i think

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maybe number two that's number two let's

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what's number three number three is okay

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are you made for an all-equity portfolio

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see i'd like to see a young person until

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they're 40 years of age probably be all

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in equities because for every 10

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more inequities you have you make about

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a half a percent more per year and a

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half a percent is golden but at some

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point we start moving towards our golden

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years right

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and we start

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cutting back because when we're young

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we have lots of time to earn money but

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when we get older

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that that ability to earn money to

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support ourselves diminishes and we got

9:32
to make sure the portfolio is built to

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sustain us uh the rest of our life now

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having said that

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if somebody said well is it okay to be

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all equities for your whole life sure of

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course it's okay sure

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as a matter of fact you'd probably

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retire with tons more money exactly you

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would probably die with tons more money

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but you'd always be sitting on a bed of

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securities that are likely to collapse

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and could be a collapse of not just 50

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or 60

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but could be 70

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and you may not want to take that risk

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and it's all about risk tolerance and i

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tell people all the time

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do not call me if you're less than 50

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years old about annuities please

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follow paul and even at 50 okay even

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between that 50 to 55 range i'll talk to

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you but there's a very good chance for

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me to say no no no no too early but but

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if you're less than 50 and some

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sociopaths trying to sell you an annuity

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please please just listen to paul and i

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you need to be in growth and growth

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means not

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an annuity so what's number four paul

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but stan i gotta ask yes because you've

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just said something that people might

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when i say misinterpret because you know

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annuity equals fixed income

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that's not true what do you say that's

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true if they're gonna pick fixed income

10:52
would you recommend an annuity a bond a

10:54
cd what would you recommend okay and

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we're talking let's let's dig in a

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little bit

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because

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this is where this is where some of the

11:02
people in the financial industry

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kind of get it not you but others that

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have interviewed get it wrong

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when you're talking about fixed income

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you're talking about bonds corporate

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munis treasuries you're you're also

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talking about um cds okay you're talking

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about those type of things now the

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annuity industry has one

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product type called a multi-year

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guarantee annuity that that functions

11:28
like a cd

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it it's guaranteed guaranteed interest

11:32
rate for a specific period of time that

11:33
you choose fully principal protected no

11:35
moving parts no annual fees if you said

11:38
stan that that might looks like a cd and

11:40
acts like a cds because it's the annuity

11:42
industry's version of a cd and now where

11:44
people make mistakes in the industry is

11:46
saying

11:47
things like an indexed annuities like a

11:49
bond it is not like a bond okay um so in

11:51
the fixed

11:53
income space where you're talking about

11:55
protecting your principal and getting a

11:57
coupon off of it in the annuity industry

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and and i'm right about this regardless

12:02
of who's going to email me the hate mail

12:04
it's multi-year guarantee annuities you

12:05
can buy them as short as one year in

12:07
duration you can ladder them one two

12:09
three four and five i don't let people

12:10
go past five because that's where the

12:12
yield curve analysis stops us

12:14
but do not let anybody and there's some

12:17
smart people saying well index annuities

12:19
are like bonds no they're not

12:21
bonds have a guaranteed coupon

12:23
multi-year guarantee annuities have a

12:24
guaranteed coupon cds have a guaranteed

12:27
coupon

12:28
indexed annuities don't have a

12:29
guaranteed coupon they have a minimum

12:30
guarantee but that doesn't count

12:32
okay so stan i can tell you i can tell

12:35
you right now the people that are going

12:36
to hear this because we're going to send

12:38
it to our

12:39
uh our mailing list

12:41
they're going to want to know okay then

12:43
just tell us what is about the return of

12:47
the cd

12:48
versus this annuity product you're

12:51
recommending well at the time of this

12:52
taping i really want people to look at

12:54
that look at that date right now before

12:56
i go into this because i you know these

12:58
rates will change and they're all going

13:00
to change but

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number one multi-year guarantee

13:03
annuities fixed annuities are regulated

13:05
at the state level so depending on the

13:07
state you live in

13:08
it's going to be different and you can

13:09
go to my site at the annuityman.com and

13:11
pull a live feed of all states and

13:13
filter it

13:14
but right now say a three year at the

13:16
time of this taping and um and we're in

13:19
march of 2022. okay

13:22
time of this taping it's 2.65 on a three

13:24
year 2.9 on a four year over three

13:27
percent on a five year they don't really

13:29
reward you going past that two years

13:32
getting two to two point one percent

13:33
depending on your state once again don't

13:35
hold me to all those go to my site and

13:36
look at your specific state but in a

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latter format and everyone knows where

13:41
cds are at this point in time you can do

13:43
a two three four and a five year ladder

13:45
and get say

13:47
2.65 2.9 and then 3.1

13:51
on a ladder principal protected no

13:53
annual fees no moving parts no indexes

13:56
and you have full control over the asset

13:58
now when you compare that to cds at the

14:00
time of this taping um it's not it's not

14:04
comparable because annuity companies

14:05
have have more pricing mechanisms than a

14:08
bank does their only their slave to the

14:10
10-year or the 30-year treasury whereas

14:12
a life insurance company has multiple

14:14
products they can price on i don't want

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to go into the annuity hole because

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people want to hear you paul

14:19
i understand but but you know something

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it's it's about choices

14:23
and and we rarely get a chance to get

14:26
the full education and i've always

14:28
called you one of the truth tellers so i

14:30
appreciate having a chance to hear that

14:32
go go right ahead

14:34
the walking middle finger of annuity

14:35
truth is what my wife calls me number

14:38
number number four paul what's number

14:40
four

14:41
oh let's see number four uh oh my golly

14:44
we got to the fine tuning well we're

14:47
going to get into the uh district

14:49
actually it starts with distributions

14:51
let's talk about distributions

14:54
distributions come in two forms the

14:56
first form is fixed

14:58
and that is the person

15:00
who has not

15:02
saved too much they've saved just enough

15:06
to retire so they don't have much wiggle

15:08
room they can't be far off in terms of

15:10
the returns they're going to get and how

15:12
much they're going to take out sure and

15:15
so with that restriction we figure

15:18
that if they take out four percent let's

15:21
say out of a million dollars

15:23
they are going to have to inflation and

15:25
adjust that every year or they're going

15:27
to or they're going to get behind and

15:29
they will not have the living standard

15:31
that they thought they were going to

15:32
have so right we have to every year

15:35
adjust that so we look at tables that

15:37
pay out 3 4 five six and adjust them

15:41
every year going back to 1970 for real

15:45
inflation not hypothetical inflation

15:48
because you need to see what the risks

15:50
are to your portfolio right and so

15:53
that's one but then there's another

15:55
level of distributions and it's a it's

15:58
it's a whole different look at at this

16:00
decision-making process and that is what

16:03
we call i'm going to call it the person

16:05
who's over saved they have room to make

16:08
a mistake they can take out more they

16:11
can invest a little more aggressively

16:13
there are a whole bunch of things that

16:15
are beneficial to them because they

16:17
oversaved

16:18
right i even waited to retire

16:20
financially until i was 70. so that i

16:23
had what i thought was the protection

16:26
from the worst-case situation for my

16:28
wife and myself so in that case it's not

16:31
fixed it's variable right first of each

16:34
year my wife and i take out

16:37
five percent of whatever it was worth 12

16:39
31

16:41
and that's our money for this year

16:44
and so that's our budget theoretically

16:46
i'd like to believe it would be our

16:47
budget sure that's the idea

16:50
and we break that up into monthly even

16:52
monthly payments over the year

16:55
what you'd find out

16:57
is that by going to these

17:00
multiple

17:02
uh this variable or flexible payment is

17:05
that it protects you in the bad times

17:07
and the very thing that would leave you

17:09
broke with fixed

17:11
uh extraction distributions could leave

17:14
you in fat city by using a variable

17:16
distribution it's magic it's it's

17:19
absolutely wonderful to see how that

17:21
little difference between forcing

17:23
yourself to take money out and having

17:26
the the the ability

17:28
to take a variable amount and then

17:31
we have to talk about the glide path

17:33
every is that number five s5 the glide

17:36
path oh my god if i've lost if i i may

17:39
have left out contributions i'll i'll

17:42
get back to it it doesn't matter we're

17:43
i'm just checking the boxes off go ahead

17:45
[Laughter]

17:47
i

17:48
in in the area about

17:50
the glide path

17:52
everybody should theoretically have a

17:55
glide path

17:56
the

17:57
number one product in america for as an

18:02
investment in a 401k

18:04
and second and third and fourth place

18:07
together are all way behind the target

18:10
date fund

18:11
what does the target date fund do and by

18:13
the way you can have a target date fund

18:15
till you die

18:16
if you want to but the idea is that a

18:20
young person for example can today buy a

18:22
target date fund that knows they want to

18:25
retire in 2065.

18:28
and they managed the money

18:30
until 2065

18:32
knowing when according to the managers

18:34
of those funds when to add some bonds

18:37
how much in bonds how much inequities

18:39
what equities and all of those kinds of

18:41
things that that movement

18:44
from all equity to some fixed income

18:46
that's called the glide path and the

18:49
target date does that for people here's

18:51
the if there there is one secret that i

18:54
think is really powerful

18:56
and i don't know if you call it a secret

18:58
because it was from a study that wharton

19:00
did that showed on 1.2 million accounts

19:04
that people who used a target date fund

19:08
were set up to make 2.3

19:11
more per year than the people who are

19:13
doing it on their own wow and if that

19:17
isn't an argument for most people

19:20
to use a target date fund i don't know

19:22
what argument there but there is one

19:24
thing i would add

19:25
this goes back to this what we learned

19:27
about equities

19:29
i could show you and we in fact we have

19:31
a free book that we send to people but i

19:34
could show you how if you just added 10

19:37
percent

19:38
small cap value to that target date fund

19:42
it would make you an extra

19:44
one half of one percent at least

19:46
historically well which would add about

19:48
an extra million to two

19:50
through your lifetime i'm just i'm just

19:52
saying that it's worth looking at and

19:55
and and and finally uh it is knowing

19:58
what

19:59
individual investments to put your money

20:02
into yeah and so we have it right there

20:06
i mean we give the list we have a fellow

20:08
chris chris patterson is our

20:11
director of research smart guy he has

20:14
got our

20:14
smoothest list

20:16
of recommended etfs what he calls best

20:20
in class to build a portfolio

20:22
and as i mentioned earlier we do it at

20:25
vanguard we do it at schwab and give

20:27
people that website paul given that

20:29
website i'm going to have it on my site

20:30
as well but i know people are yelling at

20:32
the speaker right now saying please give

20:34
me the website what is that website okay

20:36
it's just paulmerman.com

20:39
to ours

20:40
m-e-r-r-i-t-r m-e-r-r-i-m-a-n-com

20:45
if you haven't ever favorited a website

20:48
you might want to do that one and paul

20:51
sent me a list of the the current

20:53
portfolios his non no nonsense portfolio

20:56
which i love uh no nonsense for sound

20:58
investing he sent me that all of this is

21:01
available to you and you can look at it

21:04
and you can they're updating it

21:06
i mean

21:08
if you don't if you didn't know about

21:09
paul and what he's doing you do now and

21:11
um

21:12
it's just he's he's literally giving

21:15
money away

21:17
to you to make you richer if you just

21:19
follow some basic steps you can hear the

21:21
passion in his voice

21:23
because

21:24
he's proven it over time what paul 50

21:26
years you 50 years in this thing almost

21:29
60 as a matter of fact

21:31
that's how long i've been around this

21:32
business yeah i just i would just make

21:34
one comment about you mentioned the no

21:37
nonsense

21:38
uh and we've got a list

21:40
it includes not only the no nonsense but

21:43
already some of the highlights from the

21:45
150 portfolios better than yours off of

21:49
the white coat investor website yeah

21:52
and here's what this shows you

21:54
there is really there are some secrets

21:58
to successful building of portfolios

22:01
and in those tables i show you some of

22:04
the most famous the bogel heads uh

22:07
rick ferries uh the coffee house uh

22:11
investor a whole bunch of people who

22:13
have great

22:14
portfolios but how did they really do

22:18
over the last 52 years and we show you

22:21
how they did not just in the good times

22:24
but in the bad times yep and it's pretty

22:27
easy to see that risk versus return

22:30
once you see those results

22:33
um for the people that are that there's

22:36
a couple of um

22:37
audio glitches we're having not nothing

22:39
major paul but you know paul's in this

22:41
beautiful state of washington are you in

22:43
oregon

22:46
oh no i'm right now i'm in washington

22:49
do i not have a good connection no it's

22:51
pretty good it's 98 percent good which

22:53
is enough for us to to get the gold out

22:55
and i'm in i'm in uh the sunny rainy

22:57
state of florida so we're we're a long

22:59
ways away i was going to ask you

23:00
something you sent me um an email

23:03
with a with you know i'd ask you a

23:04
couple questions you're responding one

23:06
of the things that just jumped out at me

23:07
is

23:08
um

23:09
you know kids today

23:12
they trust

23:14
crypto more than they trust the s p 500

23:17
tell me how did we get here paul how do

23:20
we that's insanity number one

23:23
but why are why is that happening in in

23:26
what's the long-term effect of that if

23:27
we don't correct that perception

23:31
well it's what i spent a lot of my life

23:33
trying to do i talked to college kids

23:35
yesterday stan and

23:37
and it's kind of uh one small group at a

23:40
time for me but the bottom line is this

23:44
there is a difference between the price

23:45
you pay for something and the value you

23:47
get

23:49
and today

23:50
with the internet

23:52
uh anything can be sold it's amazing the

23:55
kinds of things people are led to

23:57
believe i know as a matter of fact it's

23:59
not just the bad information about the

24:03
the risk levels of cryptocurrency versus

24:05
the s p 500 i mean that just that just

24:09
really

24:10
worries me that people would think that

24:12
the cryptocurrency is a safer investment

24:15
than the s p 500 but you know i can't i

24:18
can't save everybody but i will tell you

24:20
this

24:21
because of social media

24:24
there are people who are preaching

24:27
investment advice that is absolutely

24:30
terrible i agree i'm not going to name

24:32
his name and i'm going to think probably

24:35
stan

24:36
i hope you won't mention it but when i

24:38
mention what i tell you they believe in

24:40
i know here you don't know exactly who

24:42
it is

24:43
and that is a person who tells people it

24:46
is good to buy a loaded fund and pay the

24:49
commission up front

24:51
now let me tell you about that

24:53
that means

24:54
that you put in a thousand dollars and

24:56
fifty dollars goes into somebody else's

24:58
pocket to compound for the rest of your

25:00
life

25:02
now if what that person said is

25:04
if you are smart enough to understand

25:06
what an index fund is and you can buy it

25:09
with very low expenses you can buy it

25:11
without a commission and that would be a

25:13
great thing to do but if you want to do

25:15
something else then go pay somebody a

25:17
commission to buy

25:19
a fund that is likely to do worse than

25:21
that index fund that to me is even worse

25:25
than some of the stuff about

25:27
cryptocurrency

25:28
because cryptocurrency will be wiped out

25:31
but but but these other pieces of advice

25:34
are going to continue for people's lives

25:36
and it's going to cost them early

25:38
retirement it's going to cost them money

25:41
in retirement they're going to leave

25:42
less to their kids because they're

25:44
getting bad advice and it's because they

25:47
know how to work social media

25:50
yeah i didn't have that when i was a kid

25:52
and it's sad i i i'm a student of all

25:55
things financial like you are and and

25:57
it's um we have to pay attention on the

26:00
blockchain technology and crypto because

26:03
the reason i'm doing that is it's

26:05
fascinating to me the demographics that

26:07
are buying it i think it's 55 or 57 of

26:09
all crypto owners are

26:12
are

26:13
millennials of color

26:15
uh um

26:16
white black asian lower income

26:19
is also a big holder of that and i think

26:22
paul that they think it's it's a dream

26:25
it's maybe a get rich quick it's maybe

26:27
an easy problem solver

26:30
that's a good sell but it's not reality

26:32
and i in it and it it almost sickens me

26:35
because if these people would have taken

26:37
this money that they put in crypto and

26:39
just put it in just put in an s p 500

26:42
vanguard fund that with the lowest cost

26:44
on on the planet and forgot about it

26:46
yeah they'd be better off

26:49
and in my book we're talking millions 12

26:52
simple ways to supercharge your

26:54
retirement

26:55
i give them 12 million dollar decisions

26:58
one of them is not to put money into

27:00
cryptos one of them is not to put money

27:02
into a loaded fund i mean if you look at

27:05
the list they're all common sense but

27:07
every one of them if you know how to

27:09
figure this out

27:11
are worth a million dollars to any young

27:13
person in their 20s i'm sure at my age

27:16
it's a little late

27:18
but in their 20s there's plenty of room

27:21
to do the right thing

27:23
no i agree um

27:25
i know that and what i like about your

27:27
site and what you do and what what your

27:29
what your organization does is you're

27:31
not affected by

27:33
by

27:34
cable news pundits and what people say

27:38
what do you tell people during these

27:39
black swan events and when i say that

27:41
you know at the time of this taping

27:44
you know russia invading ukraine you

27:46
know maybe china invades taiwan down the

27:48
road you know um

27:50
uh the um covid hyper inflation at seven

27:54
percent what are you telling people

27:55
because i'm sure they're calling and

27:56
saying

27:57
you know they're worried or they're

27:59
trying to figure it out there's no good

28:00
answers just bad sales pitches what do

28:02
you what are you telling people to calm

28:04
them down here

28:05
well i had to laugh when in the

28:07
introduction of me you said i'm a very

28:09
optimistic person you are i i have a lot

28:13
of optimism about about humans but what

28:17
i do worry about and i have always

28:19
worried about is the catastrophic event

28:21
that's about to happen around the corner

28:24
i agree and a black swan event of course

28:27
may be a black swan event in our society

28:29
and in the world doesn't mean it's going

28:32
to be a black

28:33
market or swan event in the stock market

28:36
uh the reality is

28:39
that markets go up and down that's one

28:41
of the things you'll see in our work we

28:43
show you exactly the amount of risk well

28:46
when i say exactly the amount of risk in

28:49
the past how bad did it get we go all

28:52
the way back to 1928 to show you this so

28:55
you'll know through all wars and

28:57
depression and all sorts of things that

28:59
could impact all of us and the bottom

29:02
line is is that if you're going to be a

29:04
successful long-term investor based on

29:07
all the good advice that we get from

29:09
warren buffett and the academics and all

29:11
the people who aren't trying to sell you

29:13
something

29:15
that if you just stay the course dollar

29:17
cost to average don't market time

29:21
nobody i've i've rarely met people who

29:24
made great wealth because they were

29:26
market timers i've met people who have

29:28
protected against losses short term and

29:31
maybe felt good about doing that but

29:34
long term they paid a price in almost

29:37
every case and boy is that hard to

29:39
believe in when you see your portfolio

29:42
going down

29:43
but young people please understand

29:46
going down is good

29:49
when you're investing for example in the

29:51
s p 500 and the market is in decline

29:55
you're getting more shares every time

29:57
you put money in there

29:59
now your grandmother and grandfather and

30:00
your mother and father may not be all

30:02
that happy but you should take advantage

30:05
of those low prices don't be afraid of

30:08
them

30:09
i'm going to read something that you

30:10
wrote

30:11
i'm going to let you finish the sentence

30:14
quote from paul merriman

30:16
investing has never been easier

30:18
investing has never been more efficient

30:21
investing has never been more investor

30:24
centric

30:25
that's the good news

30:27
the bad news is

30:31
there's never been so much bad advice

30:34
this is the problem

30:36
there is so much bad advice and if you

30:38
can't tell good advice from bad advice

30:41
and if you don't know how to detect a

30:43
conflict of interest in somebody's

30:45
whoever talking to you you are at risk

30:48
you've got to set it

30:50
forget it take your mind off it but do

30:53
the right thing from day one

30:55
and you go on and have a great life it

30:57
does not have to be about watching the

30:59
market day by day not even year by year

31:03
you

31:03
need to save and invest intelligently

31:07
but the minute you let your emotions

31:09
into the process you are at risk of

31:11
buying the story they tell us don't try

31:16
to sell the steak

31:18
sell the sizzle sell the smell sell

31:21
whatever it is that makes people's

31:23
juices

31:24
erupt that's what gets people to do

31:27
stupid stuff

31:30
i'm supposed to be on a diet but when i

31:32
smell that steak

31:35
well i tell people all the time

31:37
but you know don't buy the dream because

31:39
you're going to own the reality and i

31:41
think that people are always looking for

31:43
whether it's investing or losing weight

31:46
or whatever it is a shortcut you know

31:48
and i always tell people that sounds too

31:50
good to be true and this definitely

31:51
applies to annuities but investment

31:53
pitches in general if it sounds too good

31:55
to be true it is every single time

31:58
between paul and i we have 90 years of

32:00
experience okay

32:01
um him 60 me 30. but the point is we've

32:05
seen it all we've seen lipstick being

32:07
put on the pig every single time and if

32:10
you leave the sales pitch or the bad

32:11
chicken dinner expensive steak dinner

32:13
seminar going that sounded pretty good

32:16
it's not as good as what it

32:18
i mean the reality is not

32:20
it's not what you heard and i think i

32:22
could add one thing

32:24
i think it's important

32:26
to understand and appreciate the

32:28
difference between the courtship

32:31
and the honeymoon

32:33
and reality nice and by the way that's

32:35
not just in the investment process it's

32:38
it's about almost every part of our life

32:41
exactly and there is nothing

32:43
more complex

32:45
or potentially costly than the courtship

32:49
because somebody is trying to present

32:52
themselves in a way

32:53
that they're going to make believe that

32:56
they will love you forever no matter

32:59
what you know life is more complex and

33:02
and and that's a challenge because the

33:04
courtship and the honeymoon are very

33:07
very costly for too many people in all

33:10
different parts of their life

33:12
that is what i think you're trying to do

33:14
stan certainly my educational material

33:17
is to try to let you see reality before

33:20
you hear the courtship that's a better

33:23
way to do it i always tell people i'm

33:25
never going to be your friend but i am

33:26
going to be the best advisor you ever

33:27
had because i'm going to i'm going to be

33:29
brutally honest you do not want

33:31
a can an oncologist to be your friend

33:34
you want them to be the biggest

33:36
truth-teller of all time

33:38
and um that's what i tell people all the

33:40
time in the investment world you wrote

33:42
something the other day in the question

33:44
i'ma let you finish it and the question

33:46
is what does it take

33:48
to be a star do-it-yourself investor boy

33:51
what a loaded question that only paul

33:53
merriman can fill in the blank

33:56
well

33:57
stan i think they have to be able to

34:00
know themselves

34:02
investing is easy it is very simple

34:06
if you choose funds with very low

34:09
expenses and huge diversification

34:12
and and and

34:13
high tax efficiency and you you put it

34:16
in a roth ira or some place where it

34:18
grows either you know tax deferred or

34:20
tax free

34:22
the all that's left to be done is to

34:24
understand who you are as an investor

34:28
and that

34:30
is something most investors don't know

34:33
and this is why as warren buffett said

34:36
it's good to learn from your mistakes

34:39
it's much better to learn from others

34:41
mistakes

34:43
and the reality is

34:45
when you do what people like stan and i

34:48
would recommend that you do like people

34:50
in the target date fund would recommend

34:52
that you do

34:53
it's all done

34:55
knowing what is probably that's the word

34:58
we have to understand as part of the

35:00
process probably

35:02
investing if you look at it carefully is

35:05
all about faith

35:07
and i'm this is not about of

35:09
religious but it is faith that the

35:12
market is going to grow that the economy

35:14
is going to grow the capitalism is is

35:16
going to survive

35:18
and

35:19
you can look at history and see a lot of

35:21
good ideas that didn't survive and so

35:24
there is a certain amount of faith you

35:27
have to have but if you don't have that

35:29
faith in the economy and all you do is

35:32
put your money in fixed income

35:36
investments

35:37
you were likely to have to work a lot

35:39
longer and live on a lot less because

35:42
you weren't willing to take that risk of

35:44
the long-term success of the system

35:48
i don't blame you for not trusting this

35:50
system it could be a rotten system but

35:54
when you own 500 or 5 000 companies

35:58
you're not counting yes some of them are

35:59
run by crooks absolutely there's no

36:02
question i just can't tell you which

36:03
ones they are i know they're out there

36:06
but that's just a very small part

36:08
probably of your portfolio but

36:11
it's so easy it is so

36:14
unbelievably easy to set it and forget

36:16
it if you know

36:18
you have the ability to keep your hands

36:21
off the trigger

36:23
you know boring is always good simple is

36:25
always good i always tell people if you

36:27
can't explain it to a nine-year-old you

36:28
shouldn't shouldn't buy it no offense to

36:30
nine-year-olds um it really comes down

36:33
to that and um

36:35
you know in low interest rate

36:36
environments uh you always see products

36:39
coming

36:40
to the market that are extremely complex

36:43
with multiple levers and you you need an

36:46
advanced math degree

36:47
to explain it and they can change the

36:50
rules during the time you know that's

36:52
that's that's one of my big bugaboos

36:54
with some of these really complex

36:56
annuities is yeah you buy a 10-year

36:58
policy but you're really buying a

37:00
one-year guarantee with the 10-year

37:02
surrender charge um because the annuity

37:04
company can change the rules at their

37:06
discretion every single year that's not

37:08
that's not an investment that's not

37:10
something that you can pragmatically

37:13
depend on

37:15
and you have to be very very careful out

37:16
there what um

37:19
what are some of the glaring mistakes

37:20
that you continually have seen over your

37:23
six decades like if you and i'm not

37:26
holding you to a number but yeah just

37:28
think uh just off the top of your head

37:30
what do you just continually see people

37:32
doing wrong

37:33
investment wise

37:34
well i i think there's a a range of

37:37
things that have to do with expectations

37:41
uh let's say we are very optimistic

37:44
about the future

37:45
it isn't surprising to find out that

37:47
those people don't have very much

37:49
knowledge

37:50
about how bad things can be their

37:52
expectations are to the upside and they

37:55
don't prepare themselves for the

37:57
downside and this is why a lot of people

38:00
need an investment advisor to watch over

38:03
them to keep to keep them from doing

38:05
damage to themselves

38:08
that's the business i was in and when i

38:10
left we had a 1.5 billion dollars under

38:13
management i think the firm has three

38:15
billion dollars under management now but

38:18
those are all people that that that need

38:21
somebody to take care of this for them

38:24
right because expectations are rarely

38:28
very good

38:29
because expectations may come from

38:31
hearing something on tv that made sense

38:34
and it could be very scary it could be

38:36
very positive

38:38
but there with every story with every

38:40
smell of the sizzle going on there is

38:43
more to know and people don't want to

38:46
take the time to know it

38:48
i think you should never make an

38:50
investment one that you don't understand

38:54
and understanding index funds is dirt

38:56
dirt simple

38:58
but also i think it's impo it is really

39:01
important to prepare for the worst of

39:03
times not just the worst day week month

39:07
the worst five years

39:09
right because that might have an impact

39:11
on how you

39:12
how much fixed income you have in the

39:14
portfolio particularly if you're close

39:16
to retirement

39:18
and so expectations because people

39:21
haven't looked at the facts by the way

39:23
they're they're past facts and then

39:26
people say well yeah but it's different

39:28
now no it is not different now and this

39:31
is the reason i say that i think this is

39:33
important because if you believe

39:36
that it's it's not the past has no

39:38
meaning

39:39
then what you're going to do is you're

39:41
going to ignore all those difficult

39:42
times and for decades i told people look

39:46
at from 1929 to 1938 look how bad it was

39:50
that is probably probably going to

39:52
happen again hopefully not in our

39:54
lifetime but it did from 2000 to 2009

40:00
the inflation adjusted rate of return

40:03
was better

40:05
from 1929 to 38 than it was in the us

40:08
with the s p 500

40:11
now the good news is

40:13
and boy is this important to understand

40:16
if you had a diversified portfolio of

40:18
something more than just one major asset

40:22
class what they call large cap blend

40:24
that's the s p 500 you would have made

40:27
between four and seven percent a year

40:30
during a 10-year period that the s p 500

40:34
lost money

40:35
and this is the beauty of building a

40:38
portfolio that takes advantages of the

40:41
yin and the yang and the ups and the

40:42
downs

40:44
none of it's guaranteed but you take the

40:46
steps to defend it's all about being

40:49
defensive

40:51
most people think of investing as

40:53
something aggressive it's about offense

40:56
if you look at successful investing

40:59
diversification defensive low expenses

41:01
defensive low taxes defensive all those

41:05
things are defensive and when you get

41:07
into retirement how much money you take

41:09
out

41:10
defensive because you're trying not to

41:12
take too much out that you run out of

41:14
money before you run out of life

41:16
got to be defensive

41:19
uh you know it's kind of like driving a

41:20
car

41:22
you know i was thinking you're saying

41:23
defensive i'm a defensive driver

41:25
you know people that aren't defensive

41:27
drivers and the guys you see come and

41:29
pass you on the interstate at 95 miles

41:30
per hour that's eventually not going to

41:32
end well

41:33
and i think the same thing can be said

41:35
from an investing standpoint one of the

41:36
things i like about your site paul

41:38
number one with people again we're going

41:40
to have us his link there we're going to

41:42
have a link to his newsletter you can

41:43
subscribe to a free newsletter with paul

41:45
okay but if you go to his site at paul

41:47
merriman.com they have portfolios that

41:50
you can look at they have mutual fund

41:52
choices of which if you drop it down

41:55
you know they're going to show mutual

41:56
funds from vanguard fidelity t row price

41:58
schwab with the etfs i mean this is gold

42:01
people i mean they have the vanguard

42:04
they have the best in class

42:05
best-in-class etf recommendations the

42:07
portfolios they have they have it all

42:10
there

42:11
and there's not some pay wall to get

42:13
through to it no you can get it you can

42:16
get it there's podcasts there's videos

42:18
there's there's it there's

42:20
there's so much there and the reason i'm

42:21
spending a little bit of time here paul

42:23
just kind of

42:24
sound the horn with people here is

42:27
there's a lot of people that are

42:28
charging for information

42:30
um

42:33
paul's organization allows you to look

42:36
around

42:37
and honestly i'll be honest with paul

42:39
i've

42:39
when we built our new website and people

42:41
that go to my site it a lot of it had to

42:44
do with what paul's doing because you

42:45
can go to my site you have to you know

42:46
you can run quotes and you can get books

42:48
and you can watch videos and you can

42:50
list the podcast

42:51
eerily similar to paul merriman.com

42:53
because

42:54
i think we both believe in

42:57
you know if you're doing the right thing

42:58
and if you're giving the information

42:59
away and you're educating then people

43:01
can make good decisions on their terms

43:03
in their time frame and i think that's

43:05
what i like about what you guys are

43:07
doing there and you have a great team i

43:09
mean that you know paul

43:11
you know

43:12
i could go through all the people that

43:13
work for him but i mean they're really

43:15
really good and they're really really

43:16
smart he mentioned chris patterson who's

43:18
the director of research but you know

43:20
daryl

43:21
also works with chris he's very very

43:23
very smart all volunteer by the way yeah

43:26
richard

43:28
and aisha

43:30
all of those people renee

43:32
all of those people

43:33
um are there to educate you and give to

43:35
you and honestly get you through these

43:37
times right now these are these are

43:40
weird

43:41
times

43:42
um

43:43
and you know it's going to be

43:44
interesting to see if the fed raises

43:46
rates and what happens with putin and

43:48
what happens with china and what happens

43:49
with inflation and what happens in the

43:51
midterms and but as you said earlier

43:54
there's always something it's always

43:55
been like this right

43:56
yeah and and and stan i think another

43:59
thing that's unique about our work and

44:01
we have a we're actually a non-profit

44:03
foundation so we really aren't trying to

44:05
make money at all

44:07
but

44:08
i think what is important is that we

44:10
have tried to design

44:12
our work so it's available and helpful

44:16
to people of all ages so yes we have

44:19
these portfolios of vanguard and then

44:22
the etfs and all but we have a

44:24
conservative and a moderate and

44:26
aggressive and we have an all value and

44:28
we have a uh and an all small cap for

44:32
people who want to have a worldwide

44:34
small cap value portfolio

44:36
we have four funds u.s we have four

44:38
funds they're all built to meet the

44:41
needs of different kinds of investors

44:44
and as i said before

44:47
we have a lot of people who follow our

44:49
work for newborn children

44:52
because we really are trying to

44:54
encourage parents and grandparents to do

44:56
some very low-cost simple things to get

45:00
to give their children and grandchildren

45:02
a head start and we tell you exactly how

45:04
to do it and in no case

45:06
do i ever get involved in the doing it

45:09
because i don't do anything except teach

45:12
which is enough which by the way is

45:14
enough that's enough

45:15
we hope it's enough

45:18
by the way paul has written eight books

45:20
paul is there a number nine on the way

45:23
is it well

45:25
uh yeah

45:26
yes there is a number nine on on the way

45:30
and and uh but i don't think it's going

45:32
to come

45:33
for a couple of years because believe it

45:35
or not what i want before i die

45:38
uh which i hope will be more than a

45:39
couple of years i do want to produce a

45:42
book my wife she she just chastises

45:46
me for anything over seven but i want to

45:48
write a book about the 1 000 things

45:51
you should know about investing

45:54
and by the way

45:55
that 1000 things will include

45:58
200 quotes and i am a huge believer

46:03
in great quotes to help us stay

46:06
the course john bogle warren buffett i

46:08
mean there are so many great quotes that

46:11
if you just remembered that quote when

46:13
you started to pull that trigger

46:15
oh no i'm supposed to i'm a buy and

46:17
holder don't do this those kind of

46:19
things help and then

46:21
you're going to find a couple hundred

46:23
myths

46:24
of investing right i don't know all the

46:26
myths in fact i should come to you stan

46:28
you can help me build the myths around

46:30
annuities oh my goodness i need to write

46:33
that i could write that book today one

46:34
of the greatest quotes i've heard of

46:36
some steve jobs is simplicity is complex

46:39
in other words staying in your lane is

46:41
hard

46:42
um it sounds easy and function

46:45
but

46:46
and but the implementation is always

46:48
tough and i always tell people whether

46:50
it's investing and what paul's doing and

46:52
he does this all the time and whether

46:54
it's annuities keep it simple

46:57
keep it very very simple and warren

46:59
buffen's you know we keep referring to

47:01
him

47:02
but he always said if i don't understand

47:04
it i'm not going to invest in it and

47:05
what does warren buffett own coke and

47:08
candy stuff and insurance

47:10
he understands it i think it's that

47:13
simple it really is don't you think

47:16
i do and interestingly enough

47:19
a portfolio of value asset classes

47:23
different indexes

47:25
have for the last 15 20 years produced

47:28
a very similar return maybe even better

47:31
than warren buffett

47:33
that you don't have to be warren buffett

47:36
to get exceptional returns you just need

47:39
to be in the types of asset classes that

47:42
have historically paid a premium for

47:45
then that's what that's what he's been

47:47
doing for for

47:49
what 50 years back to the mid with the

47:51
mid 70s he was buying companies that

47:54
were really good deals remember it's not

47:57
about the price you pay it's about the

48:00
value you get he was always on the value

48:03
and of investing and his teacher

48:06
was was benjamin graham who is the

48:09
father of security and

48:11
analysis

48:12
we all read that book you know it's

48:14
funny that you bring that up because

48:15
that was the first book i read in 1986

48:19
when i decided to

48:21
that's this is where i was headed i was

48:22
headed in the in the

48:24
in this world

48:26
two more questions

48:28
by by the way if anyone wants to read a

48:30
good book

48:31
security analysis by benjamin graham for

48:33
people like paul and i that was like the

48:35
intro book that was the book you read to

48:37
kind of get it to understand it

48:39
um

48:40
and it's still it's it's timely to this

48:43
day but but i might i might add

48:46
that it created a complexity

48:49
to to to which people don't have to go

48:51
to be a successful investor i agree in

48:54
fact at the end of his life benjamin

48:56
graham said

48:58
that something like an index fund

49:01
without all the fancy formulas that he

49:03
tried to apply would likely be just as

49:06
good as what he did

49:08
and and and so

49:10
uh that's where you'd have to read all

49:12
of his stuff until you get to that final

49:15
and end of his life before you learn the

49:18
secret to success from benjamin graham

49:22
final two questions here's the first one

49:24
you've been doing this for six decades

49:26
plus

49:27
and you know

49:29
hoping and praying you're here for

49:30
another one decade because

49:32
thank you we really want you here

49:35
what in the past

49:37
two years 18 months year

49:40
has surprised you that you really

49:43
or is there anything that surprised you

49:44
something like you just kind of said

49:46
wait that's that's interesting i i

49:47
wasn't expecting that or that was a

49:50
unique stat anything that jumps out at

49:52
you because i would love to know what

49:54
your brain finds in just interesting

49:56
well i i find it very difficult to deal

50:02
with the complexity we have in our

50:04
society today

50:06
uh

50:07
i

50:09
i've always worked really hard to

50:11
understand the other person's beliefs

50:14
some of my best friends

50:17
totally i totally disagree with the

50:19
things they believe in sure

50:21
but it's never been like this the things

50:23
that we disagreed about i know that has

50:26
been very hard on me

50:29
the other thing is and i just i just

50:32
love it when i can say

50:34
i told you so

50:36
and i and i mean that in the the most

50:38
calm and generous way

50:41
and that is i look at what we just went

50:43
through

50:44
and if you didn't know what the market

50:46
did for the year that we went through

50:48
something and somebody said i guarantee

50:51
you in the next 12 months here is what

50:54
we're going to have happen to us do you

50:56
want to be in the market

50:58
or out

50:59
i can guarantee you that most people

51:02
would want to be out of it because it

51:03
sounds so

51:05
scary

51:07
and the fact is the point at which the

51:09
market is really really scary to me

51:13
is when it's really really high

51:16
because

51:18
that that is in essence a point at which

51:21
it might be things are so good i don't

51:24
know how it could ever be better boy am

51:26
i feeling good right you know when

51:28
things are too good and they can't get

51:30
any better that's bad

51:32
if things are terrible and can't get any

51:33
worse that's good and it's hard to get

51:37
that uh emotion

51:39
uh right as an investor right because

51:42
most of society

51:44
when things aren't going well

51:46
want you to listen to them complain and

51:48
tell you why it's you know how we could

51:50
fix this and why isn't it being fixed

51:53
and it's all very kind of pessimistic in

51:55
nature and it keeps people from doing

51:57
the the right thing for the long term

52:00
with their investments because they are

52:02
becoming

52:03
what they all believe they shouldn't be

52:06
they become market timers they decide

52:08
they should move more money into large

52:10
or more money into small companies or

52:12
more money into bonds or they should be

52:14
moving around and wall street wants you

52:16
to move around they can't make any money

52:18
if you don't move around so you start

52:21
moving around and you say i don't

52:22
believe in market timing but you are

52:24
market timing

52:26
most of you use what i call the i can't

52:28
stand it anymore market timing system

52:31
well and in these times absolutely

52:33
fearing greed

52:35
rear its ugly head from a sales pitch

52:37
standpoint you're they're either selling

52:38
you the fear or the greed and it happens

52:42
too often in the uh certainly in the

52:44
annuity industry which which makes me

52:47
laugh out loud because you're buying a

52:48
contract there is no fear and there's no

52:50
greed it's a contract so um one last

52:54
one one last thing and um

52:57
and first of all before you answer it

52:58
you know paul marion is a national

53:00
treasure to me

53:01
um and and he wrote something to me the

53:03
other day that i underlined and stuck it

53:06
on the speaker beside my

53:08
um

53:09
screen and it said

53:10
i'm having a ball and celebrating every

53:13
extra

53:15
day i'm getting in life

53:18
i absolutely am stan it is

53:21
it it is amazing i get up between three

53:23
and four in the morning sometimes a

53:25
little earlier

53:27
and rarely after four

53:29
and i am immediately

53:32
reading

53:33
articles about our industry

53:36
i now i'm playing wordle i get up and do

53:39
wordle first thing i don't know if you

53:40
do that brain moving i like that but i

53:43
but i've missed one so far and i'm just

53:45
uh so sorry i did

53:47
uh and and uh and i love answering

53:50
emails i love helping people yeah i love

53:54
honestly i love believing that the work

53:57
that we're doing is changing lives

54:00
and i don't care if they don't remember

54:04
my name 50 years from now

54:07
but i'm hoping they will remember the

54:09
point in their investment career

54:12
where they finally got it right and by

54:15
got it right i don't mean got the best

54:18
return in the world i mean god a return

54:22
and a combination of investments that

54:24
they could have a sense of peace of mind

54:27
along with a reasonable piece of the

54:29
action that's what we're because

54:32
we always know what we should have done

54:34
there is no risk in the past

54:36
and so we're always dealing with the

54:38
unknown and if we can find a way to put

54:41
a portfolio together that we can deal

54:44
with the unknown and stay the course

54:46
i have done

54:48
a good day's work that's what i'm here

54:51
for i always ask my celebrity guests

54:53
like you

54:54
a mic drop moment and you just did it

54:56
without me asking that was the last

54:58
question and you you did it

55:00
but but rest assured paul merriman your

55:02
legacy is in

55:03
is intact

55:05
and very kind thank you and it's intact

55:07
and the evergreen content that you have

55:10
put out there and the team that you put

55:12
in place

55:14
um you know will be helping people for

55:16
generations to come

55:18
i want to thank you for being on the

55:19
program and i want to thank every single

55:21
person listening to paul and i on every

55:23
major podcast platform and on the fun

55:25
with annuities

55:26
youtube channel and we'll see you next

55:29
week

55:34
thanks for listening to fun with

55:36
annuities please hit the subscribe

55:38
button and make sure to go to my site at

55:40
the

55:41
annuityman.com where you can run your

55:43
own spea dia and q let quotes and see a

55:46
live feed of the best mega fix rates in

55:49
the country and even get indexed and

55:51
income writer quotes as well

55:53
you can also sign up for my six annuity

55:56
owner's manual books and i'll ship them

55:58
for free and under no obligation i also

56:01
encourage you to schedule a one-on-one

56:03
call with me stan the annuity man so we

56:06
can have a full discussion of your

56:08
specific situation it will be the best

56:11
brutally factual and truthful advice you

56:14
will ever get and that's one guarantee

56:16
you should definitely take advantage of

56:18
so join me next time for the number one

56:20
annuity podcast on the planet fun

56:24
with annuities

56:28
[Music]

56:39
you