Owen Schrum: Game Planning for Your Retirement

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[Music]

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foreign

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with annuities where every single week I

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welcome a celebrity guest expert that

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can help you maximize chapter two of

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your life listen learn laugh and love

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every minute of the most unique

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Financial podcast on the planet let's

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get to it

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[Music]

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welcome to fun with annuities I'm your

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host Stan the annuity man America's

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annuity agent licensed in all 50 states

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and I am so glad to welcome back

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my first guest ever on the fun with

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annuities podcast when we decided to do

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guests in my smart little PR team was

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like who do we get who do we get who's

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the I'm like I know who to get I know

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who want I want to be the first guest

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he's a personal friend of mine we we

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were Partners at Morgan Stanley a long

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time ago and he now owns his own firm

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it's called Shrum private wealth

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management and if you see on the screen

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you'll see the the website beside his

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name is s-c-h-r-u-m-p-w-.com

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[Music]

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I could go through all his accolades but

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he's a heck of a rhythm guitar player

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welcome back Owen Shrum glad to be here

1:21
good to see you again Stan man it is I

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am dying to hear your take on

1:26
the chaos and the markets Etc so

1:30
um

1:31
I mean let's talk let's just jump into

1:32
like just a made a main topic that

1:35
everybody talks to me about

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and um you know if they're really rich I

1:39
tell them to stop bitching and that uh

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that that topic is inflation

1:44
well I was thinking about this coming on

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and I like to answer that in a bigger

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picture and the request the the concerns

1:54
that we're seeing is inflation number

1:57
one interest rates now the new thing is

2:00
banking crisis and of course the debt

2:02
limit is going to crash the country

2:03
right then you got the Federal Reserve

2:06
you got spending you got the stock

2:07
market you got the bond market and the

2:09
angle I like to take or the approach I

2:11
like to take with you and your audience

2:13
is not one of those things are

2:16
Standalone items particularly inflation

2:18
particularly interest rates they all are

2:22
related directly related and you check

2:25
it's like some big puzzle a single boy

2:28
you pull out One Log and the whole thing

2:31
May collapse but oh and I call you o

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because I can

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um and by the way just on a side note

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and this is a celebratory mom but I know

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he doesn't look like that because look

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he looks vibrant like me you know you

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know wide-eyed not that good but he is a

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new grandfather that's right proud to

2:49
love to Proud the lovely daughter

2:51
Meredith who Owen and I were talking the

2:53
other day about our our kids we were

2:56
there we were there when they were

2:59
babies and come you know he was there

3:00
for my daughter uh Brenna coming out of

3:03
the the hospital he we were in the

3:05
waiting room together so when I see

3:06
Meredith uh giving birth to the first

3:08
Shrum grandchild it is a it is a

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wonderful moment but also makes me

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realize that even though I am so vibrant

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oh and I am getting older I know you're

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saying no way but no no you're ready

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you're ready to put the sneakers back on

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stand low cuts of course

3:26
um Owen don't you think that inflation

3:28
is just yeah the thing that bothers me

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about inflation is is the talk heads on

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CNBC and Fox News business and all that

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stuff they talk about inflation as

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inflation is a one size I think it's

3:41
customizable I mean for me I don't buy

3:44
milk and take them to dance classes

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anymore my kids so I don't I don't spend

3:48
as much on gas and food and all that

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stuff

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don't you think we need to talk more

3:53
about inflation from the standpoint of

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how it affects each single person

3:58
absolutely by the way when you're

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listening to people talk about inflation

4:02
are you you tune into your newsletter or

4:05
even you talk the advisors out there let

4:08
me State something unfortunate only

4:11
about 15 of the people in the business

4:13
has ever seen inflation we have not had

4:16
inflation since 1980. Owen Shrum has

4:20
cowboy boots older than most advisors

4:24
it's a true story I mean literally he's

4:26
been in the business a long time

4:28
he I mean he's the guy that I give all

4:32
credit to for understanding markets all

4:34
not some all he taught me everything and

4:37
it was back in the day when we were both

4:38
really skinny and vibrant but but I

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here's a great story on people call me

4:43
those you know they have multiple

4:45
multiple millions of dollars unless it's

4:47
then what are we going to do about

4:48
inflation I'm like you got to be kidding

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me you can you can afford the eggs you

4:53
can afford the gas you can be okay

4:54
inflation's hitting the bottom end like

4:57
it always does the people that that are

4:59
really you know the lower end of the

5:01
economy and people that really aren't

5:02
making a lot of money they're getting

5:03
killed that 65 driving around with 400

5:07
in their checking account I always tell

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people when you go out on the road six

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out of the ten cars have 400 on their

5:12
checking account each just realize that

5:14
and be careful driving so getting back

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to inflation though what a derail but I

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think we need to frame it better right

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correct correct if inflation is a tax on

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the lower and middle class Hallelujah

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explain this is really important

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Hallelujah both from your investment

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portfolios in your societal Outlook

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believe it or not if you have inflation

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if you have assets I'm so sorry you have

5:41
assets if you have Investments if you

5:43
have real estate

5:44
inflation you you actually benefit from

5:47
inflation because your assets go up with

5:50
inflation over time assets do

5:53
particularly certain assets keep up with

5:56
inflation who gets hurt the most is the

6:00
consumer class the person working for a

6:02
living without Investments who don't

6:05
benefit from the appreciation of the

6:07
assets all they do is see their cost of

6:10
living going up and their standard of

6:12
living they're called month to month

6:13
there's Owen they're month to monthers

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and every single one of us at some point

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in their life unless we were trust fund

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babies that went to the University of

6:20
North Carolina and stayed in an

6:22
apartment not the dorm

6:23
you know you know what I'm talking about

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um every one of us has been month to

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monthers at some point in time if we

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started from scratch or most of us most

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of us did so month to month is when we

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in that stand month to month there's

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baby so the point is

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we understand that and I call it the

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scars you know we have those scars and

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everyone has the of scars but I think

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unfortunately when people take those

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scars into where there are now where

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they you know they they have money but

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they they're not acting like it right

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really good point really good point

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first off let's go back to what causes

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inflation what started this I don't know

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if when people talk to you do they want

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to know do they do they just blame an

7:06
omnipotent universe or do they really

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understand what caused this inflation we

7:11
pray yeah I I try to explain it in a

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simple form because that's what I do

7:15
Owen about the printing of money

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well in this case it's rather unique if

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you go back to the well the great

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Godfather of of Economics Milton

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Friedman who so it did work and rather

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proved that inflation is caused by an

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increase in the money supply now where

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does that money supply come from comes

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primarily from the Federal Reserve and

7:37
annually forever the Federal Reserve

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increases the amount of money in the

7:42
system your term the print the printing

7:45
press yeah three three and a half

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percent

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then what's the average for inflation

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going back from 50 years I don't know

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that answer what is it three three and a

7:55
half percent okay so what happened in

7:58
2020 covet hits we already had easy

8:02
money going back to 2008 for the

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financial crisis tons of money in the

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system yeah we had a decade of almost

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zero interest rates yeah historically

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low artificially low then the covet hits

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the Federal Reserve comes out and adds

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40 percent to the money supply that's

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not 14. you said what four zero forty

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percent

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nine trillion dollars and unlike 08

8:31
which went into the banks of the banks

8:34
reserves and the insurance companies

8:35
much of this went into the Public's

8:38
pockets in various forms PPP loans

8:42
stimulus loans infrastructure loans for

8:44
giving student debt

8:46
um the new spending bills there wasn't

8:48
any fraud in that was there I wouldn't

8:50
do have we ever there's no fraud at all

8:51
in anything the amount of fraud in the

8:54
PPP program is studying

8:56
it's on it's a university the the ivy

8:59
league universities received more than

9:02
any more PPP loans than your average

9:05
they deserved it the one you know the

9:07
ivy league really deserves to be uh by

9:10
the way on a side note hold that thought

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for a second because I just thought of

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something very very important

9:15
and this is a question for you and

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you'll be honest with me which is the

9:18
reason I love you yeah sure should I

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have get a haircut like Janet Yellen

9:23
like a Dutch boy

9:25
like I love her haircut it's so unique

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as they say do you think I'd look good

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in that I've always preferred the Yul

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Brynner look for you

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[Laughter]

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there's a great story one time

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hold your thought Owen we had a morning

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meeting in um and we're with Morgan

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Stanley and by the way Owen is uh it's

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got the sniffles but he's just you know

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just just he's emotional about them The

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Show Must Go On yeah he's emotional but

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we we had a morning meeting and I got

9:53
this wild hair up my ass to to shave my

9:56
head so the next morning I walk into the

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morning meeting with a completely shaved

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head like first day Marine boot camp

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and walked in in

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I if I had Owen's face

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I wish I had it's just bizarre I don't

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know why I did it you know it's I'm

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standing nudie man I mean I've been this

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character for a long time

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put up with me love you know he's

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embraced the chaos with my personality

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so um okay so it's a no on the yelling

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haircut no dang it she looks good in it

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you have to admit Dutch boy I mean you

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haven't seen that in a long time on the

10:34
paint can so getting back to inflation

10:37
keep going

10:38
it's so inflation is created it's

10:42
predictable uh predictable we sat there

10:45
in March and April of 2020 and told

10:47
people we're going to have inflation

10:49
we're going to have you can't add 40 to

10:54
the money supply without that causing

10:55
inflation well the Federal Reserve then

10:58
as the economy picked back up again and

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people started getting on planes and

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restaurants slowly open and people went

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back to working on the Subways they will

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cut rates again instead of raising them

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slowly to stop inflation they piled on

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then more stimulus checks another two

11:13
trillion dollars in stimulus checks

11:15
piled onto that inflate just too much

11:20
money

11:21
chasing too few goods is the recipe the

11:25
cause of inflation it was predictable

11:28
and the federal reserve's take was as we

11:31
all shook our heads well it's transient

11:34
once the supply chain

11:36
it's not transient everyone knows it's

11:39
money supply related but they they

11:42
didn't do anything about it so now we

11:44
have literally till 8 9 10 we printed

11:49
over ten and a half percent as inflation

11:51
rate in 2023 uh eggs tripled cost of

11:57
goods to the person you talked about who

11:59
gets up goes to the grocery store was

12:02
increasing greater than 11 percent

12:05
because a lot of those consumer goods

12:08
cereal eggs things in the grocery store

12:10
were going up 10 11 12 20 percent

12:16
uh quarter to quarter and it really it

12:21
really has so what so where where are

12:24
you projecting no one can see the future

12:25
because we both lost and broke our

12:27
crystal balls but what do you think on

12:28
inflation so we can move on to another

12:30
topic okay it's going down they've

12:32
already they raised interest rates

12:34
saying this is important faster than at

12:36
any point in history I know 500 and

12:40
around 14 months it takes 12 months for

12:43
that to Ripple through the economy even

12:46
housing is slower by the way the fit

12:48
inflation figures they're getting from

12:49
the government that they're using are

12:51
nine months old so they're saying

12:53
inflation's coming down to 4.9 percent

12:55
last quarter it's already down to two

12:57
percent if you take housing out that'll

13:00
report later I think we're going to end

13:01
up at three percent inflation it's a

13:03
moment it's I would tell people it's a

13:05
moment time before we go on the to

13:07
another topic I want to remind everyone

13:09
who I'm speaking with and it's very

13:10
important his name is Owen Trump he owns

13:13
a private wealth management management

13:14
company called Shrum private well Health

13:16
Management it's based in Raleigh North

13:19
Carolina God's country he is fantastic

13:22
if you're looking for someone that

13:24
actually knows what they're doing and

13:26
has ethics and morals and wants and and

13:28
manage your money on the um on the

13:31
non-annuity side it's it's Owen and

13:34
we're going to have a page that you can

13:35
go to his site and this site is Shrum

13:39
sch-r-u-m-p-w.com just want to put that

13:41
in oh and let's talk about interest

13:42
rates

13:44
um you know everyone thinks they're a

13:46
Svengali and I always tell people if I

13:47
knew where interest rates were going I'd

13:49
be on my Learjet trading interest rates

13:50
and you'd be beside me drinking a

13:52
Budweiser

13:54
but I don't know so tell me give me your

13:58
take on interest rates

13:59
as they said they've gone up faster than

14:01
they should have they've gone up 500

14:03
percent they should have started cutting

14:05
interest rates last third quarter of

14:08
last year they didn't they increased

14:10
them more there may be the probability

14:14
we're getting from our people Now

14:16
understand these are not please these

14:18
aren't guarantees these are opinions is

14:20
there's probably they're very good

14:21
opinions though they're very well

14:23
fact-based opinions yeah

14:25
um

14:26
25 or less that they'll raise interest

14:29
rates one more time for that to happen

14:31
the CPI data is going to come in in June

14:34
has to be really hot it's not going to

14:36
be really hot so we think most likely

14:41
that it it is done yeah the bond market

14:45
has priced in and when I say priced in

14:49
if you look at interest rates of the

14:51
treasury 10-year treasury versus the

14:54
two-year treasury versus the treasury

14:57
bills the bond mark is telling you that

14:59
the market has priced in Cuts in the

15:03
third quarter of this year meaning

15:05
they're going to start lowering interest

15:06
rates I think this Federal Reserved and

15:09
they should by the way yeah sure the

15:12
track record is it a lot of everything

15:14
is for show and we don't believe they

15:17
will because they're trying to make a

15:18
point one they'd be admitting that they

15:20
were wrong and that doesn't seem to be

15:23
their track record secondly they don't

15:24
have many monetary Theory people on the

15:27
Federal Reserve they tend to the

15:28
academic divisions or Finance people or

15:31
politicians and so we don't think that

15:34
they will they'll hold them probably at

15:36
this level through the remainder this

15:38
year at least

15:40
and then going into 2024

15:43
we'll start seeing gradual

15:46
cuts and interest rates now Stan let me

15:49
let me make a point the Federal Reserve

15:51
only can affect short-term rates the FED

15:54
funds rates the market does the rest

15:56
believe it or not the Federal Reserve

15:57
actually could cut interest rates

15:59
without cutting interest rates

16:01
please and as they say in the South

16:04
explain please this is really important

16:06
this is really a takeaway for your

16:07
audience if the federal remember the

16:10
Federal Reserve affects short-term rates

16:13
the reaction to those rates is what sets

16:15
mortgage rates is what sets the 10-year

16:17
the reaction Market if the Federal

16:19
Reserve namely Powell comes out in his

16:22
next meeting and says we've looked at

16:23
the numbers inflation is cooling now

16:25
we're looking effects on the economy if

16:27
the number said so we're going to

16:29
stabilize and maybe looking at lowering

16:31
rates to resistance to to lower the

16:34
chances of a hard recession the market

16:36
would take care of the rest they

16:38
wouldn't have to cut fed funds rates for

16:40
the interest rates to start coming down

16:44
frustrates me by the way on a side note

16:47
chairman Powell is known as boogpal to

16:49
me boogpal was a big first baseman

16:51
overweight they played for the Orioles

16:52
but I digress on the oyster bar in Cuba

16:56
and the keys yeah so so boob pal

17:01
um why I understand I'm hoping that they

17:04
know exactly what you just said there

17:05
and if they do know and I'm assuming

17:07
they do

17:08
and why aren't they doing it Owen

17:11
because he's afraid I can't I forget the

17:14
gentleman's name if I if I weren't on if

17:16
I weren't on recording I'd know it but

17:19
the Federal Reserve chairman through the

17:21
70s

17:22
resisted is it volcker no it's pre-voker

17:26
it was pretty vulgar

17:28
um and he was there for eight years and

17:31
he resisted

17:33
um he resisted raising rates and raising

17:36
rates and raising rates and as a result

17:37
was the architect for Arthur Burns okay

17:41
was the architect of the great inflation

17:44
of the late 70s early 80s where

17:46
notoriously infamously uh inflation

17:51
inflation went to 12 interest rates went

17:54
to 19 on CDs

17:58
and

17:59
um and so he he caused it and Powell

18:04
does not want his legacy to be that of

18:06
Arthur Burns so even they've already

18:09
said they don't care about Market

18:11
reactions they've already said most

18:13
likely we're going to have a recession

18:14
he said that on the podium in front of

18:17
the world

18:18
um and

18:21
and

18:22
my belief is he does not want to go down

18:25
his history as the one who let

18:26
entrenched runaway inflation take hold

18:30
he'd rather he'd rather keep rates high

18:33
at these levels cause a recession he's

18:36
already said he's not he's looking for

18:38
and wants five percent unemployment

18:42
so he's willing to do that to in his

18:45
eyes not allow runaway inflation to

18:48
become permanent

18:50
country boys from North Carolina we both

18:52
grew up there and we both both grew up

18:54
without and made it to where we are now

18:56
by working hard I mean none of that

18:59
makes sense to me I mean to stand up and

19:01
say I want five percent unemployment I

19:03
just thought what what are you talking

19:04
about

19:05
I I don't I don't get it on a side note

19:08
oh and a nice passion to music and he

19:10
actually right now underneath that shirt

19:12
has a Mott the Hoople t-shirt on and he

19:16
also knows that T-Rex is not a dinosaur

19:18
it's a rock band So for all you old

19:21
heads out there that are rock and

19:23
rollers Owen and I that's our passion

19:25
you know we really we really don't

19:27
I mean that's what we that's what we

19:29
like to do we're both you know play

19:30
around a little bit with the guitar and

19:32
mess around but I thought I'd throw a

19:34
Mott the Hoople reference in there Owen

19:36
just to see if I could go I took off my

19:39
Mott the Hoople t-shirt and changed it

19:40
in for my Uriah Heep t-shirt today

19:43
I saw you right Heap recently I really

19:45
did I saw Uriah Heep in in Austin Texas

19:48
and I was like are you serious yeah

19:51
yeah they opened for uh Judas Priest No

19:54
blasphemy intended just a rock band

19:57
um but yeah it was pretty interesting on

19:59
it let's let's let's let's pivot Owen

20:01
that's a good Trend that's a transition

20:03
if there ever was one all right that's

20:05
good banking crisis now let me let me

20:07
say something right now the regional

20:09
Banks and I've been looking into this

20:11
and I am appalled stunned and shocked

20:15
at the the lack of assets my comment and

20:19
I want everyone to listen closely the

20:22
annuity man LLC which I own has more

20:25
assets under management than most

20:27
Regional Banks

20:29
now yes we are the grill in the room in

20:31
the annuity business high five but

20:33
that's nuts I didn't know they were that

20:36
small and I you know I guess

20:38
when I'm looking into it you know Canada

20:40
not that I care they have no Regional

20:43
Banks this is kind of major Banks do you

20:45
think we're trending in that direction I

20:48
believe our government wants that

20:49
there's a great fear amongst many and

20:52
not just the radical on either side

20:54
that's calling for quote unquote a

20:56
national bank now people say Federal

20:58
Reserve is a National Bank do you know

21:00
the Federal Reserve is a private

21:01
institution yeah there's I love the the

21:03
conspiracy books on the Federal Reserve

21:05
you know they're on Pawleys Island South

21:07
Carolina drinking a nice tea you know

21:10
that kind of stuff the national

21:11
nationalization of the banking system

21:13
You could argue that happened in 2008

21:15
but uh it is essentially the control

21:18
Europe quote unquote has nationalized

21:21
Banks if you go to go to Europe each

21:23
country has two or three and they're

21:25
largely and of course so and we want to

21:27
be just like Europe somehow our Elites

21:30
really we really want to be like Europe

21:32
because Europe no we don't want to be

21:34
like Europe hello country and Museum

21:37
workers um yeah

21:41
I like I love Europe by the way if you

21:42
miss that

21:44
entries of Museum workers

21:48
that's fantastic all right okay so so

21:52
banking crisis I mean this is real and

21:54
there's a lot of shotgun weddings going

21:56
on this is very real in this

22:00
include this has if you're a small

22:03
business and I hate the term by the way

22:04
small business yeah we're small

22:07
businesses there's no such thing as a

22:08
small business but

22:11
explain that a person with three people

22:14
is an important critical business it's

22:17
not small to them it's not small to the

22:19
customers it's not small on the effects

22:21
of the economy 50 of the GDP of the

22:24
United States is made up of those people

22:27
uh they just don't have organized

22:29
lobbyists and but small businesses is in

22:33
this but economically there's a term for

22:35
small businesses non-publicly traded

22:37
businesses less than 500 employees Etc

22:39
uh small business make up 50 GDP and

22:43
this is going to affect them greatly

22:46
I want to start off saying it's all

22:48
related correct yeah it's all time let's

22:50
see what caused this problem Banks

22:53
believe it or not bring in deposits

22:56
make out loans greater than those

22:58
deposits or record leverage they

23:00
leverage the bank they then are required

23:02
to keep reserves they invest those

23:04
reserves sure so the banks then in

23:08
remember we're in the zero percent

23:09
interest rate for the since 2009 right

23:14
when I say zero percent a 30-year

23:17
treasury was 1.9 percent

23:20
so that's close to zero percent interest

23:22
rates well the banks do with these

23:24
required reserves they're mandated to

23:27
require them they buy treasuries

23:29
so and even so the bank management comes

23:33
in so instead of getting point one

23:35
percent on T Bill let's go buy a 10-year

23:38
it's a treasury right it's safe that's

23:40
my attention to Treasury and get two

23:42
percent so they did they bought one year

23:45
two year ten year they bought treasuries

23:47
they extended the maturity

23:50
rates go up 500 percent standard

23:54
listeners may or may not know there's an

23:56
inverse relationship picture of seesaw

23:58
if this goes oh he's got his arms up I

24:00
mean which is scary interest rates go up

24:04
the value of those bonds go down yep

24:07
it's that simple it's just that simple

24:09
let's not make it complicated interest

24:11
rates go up the value of those bonds go

24:13
down as a rule of thumb they go down

24:17
something called duration one percent

24:19
for for tenure or one percent will go

24:22
down and what Owen's talking about is

24:24
the underlying value of the bond what

24:26
you can sell it for or risk down that's

24:28
what he's talking about the value of the

24:29
bond if you sell it prior to maturity

24:32
you hold it to maturity you get your

24:34
money back you sell it prior to maturity

24:36
it's subject to market prices those

24:38
market prices go down sometimes

24:41
substantially when interest rates go up

24:42
particularly when they go up 500 percent

24:45
the FED over is over aggressive days

24:48
raise interest rates 500 there's nothing

24:50
these Banks can do their bonds are

24:52
sometimes worth 60 70 percent on the

24:55
dollar in their reserves so then

24:58
people because interest rates have gone

25:00
up the banks have been paying for 0.4

25:03
0.1 percent right the positives say I'm

25:06
gonna go find bigger money right they

25:08
find some of these money markets pay

25:10
three percent there's you know oh and

25:12
the rumor is some annuity fixed rate

25:13
annuities really pay high as well

25:16
here's the other thing too and I'm going

25:18
to interject this this is the annuity

25:19
interjection right here

25:21
um annuity companies and Banks buy the

25:23
same bonds okay the difference is

25:25
annuity companies aren't forced to sell

25:27
them that is correct and that's the

25:29
reason there's no run on annuity

25:30
companies and there's no correlation not

25:32
that annuity companies are smarter than

25:34
Banks as I always say they're just more

25:35
regulated and they put things in place

25:39
they have liability matching they make

25:42
there you go Bingo whereas Banks they

25:44
got ten three they got 10 million

25:46
dollars of death benefits actuarily in

25:48
2022 they have 10 million dollars of

25:50
treasuries it's like oh and walking into

25:52
a bar and forgetting to put on pants

25:55
remember those days yeah yeah I don't

25:58
remember the thing exactly

26:00
so these reasons these Banks Silicon

26:04
Valley was a very unique Bank by the way

26:06
that's not your grandmother's Bank no

26:08
Bank a venture capitalist and small

26:12
business and by very very wealthy

26:14
Venture Capital very wealthy very

26:16
connected we are at Silicon Valley

26:19
because Silicon Valley was one of the

26:21
few banks that would lend to the tech

26:23
industry in Silicon Valley so yeah that

26:26
money is easy it's not sticky it can go

26:28
out the door real quick they can tap the

26:30
computer and move it to Sofi name name

26:34
your continuity they can move it

26:36
anywhere so rates go up they start

26:40
pulling out large amounts of money like

26:43
500 million and 2 billion like a lot of

26:46
billion billion billion yeah billions

26:49
that'll leave a mark that hurts as Chris

26:51
Farley said it doesn't hurt here or here

26:53
it hurts right here

26:56
then has to sell these Bonds in reserve

27:01
but because the FED has raised interest

27:03
rates those bonds are below value they

27:06
have to pay out two billion dollars they

27:09
sell bonds and only have 1.6 trillion

27:12
billion dollars they are now technically

27:14
in default there's the banking story my

27:17
Arbitrage brain when that you taught me

27:19
how to develop

27:21
inner cranium says that there's if you

27:25
had a lot of money like institutional

27:27
money you could have bought you're going

27:28
to buy up those bonds hold them hold

27:29
them to term and make a killing am I

27:31
missing something

27:33
um no because even at the dis the

27:36
discount those bonds are not good if you

27:40
want to those bonds are are depressed

27:44
value aren't good if you got to cash

27:45
them in and pay depositors however now

27:47
I'm talking about I'm talking about Owen

27:49
Stan hedge fund but they're discounted

27:52
to the amount of the current interest

27:53
rate so right now A two-year a

27:59
three-year treasury is 4.8 they were

28:02
issued at 1.8 their discount 30 but that

28:06
discount only brings them up to the

28:07
current market value no institution is

28:09
going to be satisfied with 4.8 return

28:11
hey by the way on a side note now that

28:13
we just brought it though understand

28:14
hedge fund I am interested in doing that

28:17
with you but we're only going to buy

28:18
music catalogs like we go in and buy

28:21
Mott the Hoople catalogs right and T-Rex

28:25
big business and private Equity right

28:27
now that's where we're headed brother me

28:28
and you I don't know it would be called

28:30
and we'd buy obscure bands like budgie

28:33
and things like that I

28:37
but I I actually have a budgie I I

28:41
understand I understand okay get back to

28:43
the banking crisis my question to you is

28:45
when I saw this this is when I saw was

28:48
getting chaotic when you UBS had to buy

28:50
credit Swiss they didn't do that because

28:53
I they really liked each other that's a

28:55
shotgun wedding was the last one we saw

28:58
here with a one of the big Banks here

29:01
buying the regional was that a shotgun

29:02
wedding oh absolutely absolutely they

29:04
tried everything and they were all

29:07
Republic Bank and by the way we got a

29:10
stop on

29:11
oh we're not from the south shotgun

29:13
weddings if you don't know what that is

29:14
is it's a force wedding with the

29:16
father-in-law holding a shotgun to the

29:18
head of the person marrying his daughter

29:19
who's pregnant that's a shotgun wedding

29:22
okay so that's what we're talking about

29:24
it was a shotgun wedding and JP Morgan

29:27
was given inducements and guarantees

29:30
sure took over the assets and guarantee

29:34
the deposits of no not the bot not the

29:37
equity not the credit holders but the

29:39
deposits of deposit holders for Old

29:42
Republic just to stop a bank bank does

29:45
that make your stomach hurt Owen other

29:47
than other things what happened into

29:48
after 2008 I got calluses in my stomach

29:54
that's fantastic the shotgun Reddit

29:56
weddings in 2008 would would

30:00
yeah the Bank of America the yeah the

30:02
whole yes the whole Merrill Lynch that I

30:05
would have loved to been in that meeting

30:06
where they had all the big big who who

30:08
has in the one room and the guys you

30:10
know with big egos like I'm not gonna do

30:12
that because the number and the guy's

30:14
like um no you're gonna do that to your

30:17
listeners I'm gonna tell you to watch

30:18
something on YouTube for 15 minutes it's

30:20
better than Star Wars or Ted lasso and

30:24
we go to YouTube I'm not kidding go to

30:26
YouTube type into John Mack talks to

30:29
Wharton class about Morgan Stanley

30:32
default and John Mack was the CEO of

30:35
Morgan Stanley when Owen I was there and

30:37
he was such a fan of ours I mean

30:39
literally loved us but go ahead and he

30:42
talks about on Sunday night the

30:44
president the Federal Reserve and the

30:45
treasury telling him that he is going to

30:48
turn over the bank to JP Morgan for

30:51
pennies on the dot Pennies on the dollar

30:54
and lay off

30:56
200 000 employees and he tells them

31:00
expletive expletive expletive to the

31:03
president of the United States and the

31:04
Federal Reserve on the phone hangs up on

31:07
them gets on the bank and starts working

31:09
the banks of Japan in the middle of the

31:11
night to get a bailout so he doesn't

31:13
have to have a shotgun wedding holy crap

31:16
it's the most intense

31:18
talk I've ever seen that's why I say

31:20
it's better than Star Wars say the title

31:23
again to type in it's just a Google

31:24
search John Mack talks to Wharton

31:27
w-h-a-r-t-o-n which is why I watched it

31:29
John maxtor talks to Wharton about

31:31
Morgan Stanley takeover financial crisis

31:34
you'll you'll thank me

31:37
by the way Warren has graced the

31:38
presence of Wharton and they they were

31:40
lucky to have him

31:42
um

31:43
so so going forward oh

31:47
Regional Banks the the game I mean the

31:49
crisis isn't over explain what's getting

31:51
ready to happen from here I'm gonna jump

31:53
forward I think the cry we're gonna see

31:55
more stress on Regional Banks we're

31:57
going to see several more shotgun

31:59
Weddings But I don't my opinion is it's

32:01
the crisis in this case is somewhat of a

32:04
a media discussion there's not because

32:07
like I said a crisis was 2008. this

32:09
isn't going to be a crisis however the

32:12
cry the problem is coming and it's going

32:15
to affect your listeners and here is why

32:18
the regional Banks now have been told by

32:22
the Federal Reserve by the FDIC that you

32:25
better really look at your balance

32:27
sheets because all of them have duration

32:29
poor duration matches you better clean

32:31
up your balance sheets you better pull

32:33
back on your reserves increase your

32:34
reserves and we're going to regulate you

32:36
more in 60 days and you better be ready

32:38
or you Mr Bank president are going to

32:41
lose the equity of your bank and it's

32:42
going to be taken over so what does and

32:45
by the way these are some large

32:46
regionals I'm not going to mention names

32:48
large regions and so you know what

32:50
they're doing they're not they're

32:52
pulling in their loans they're calling

32:54
in their lines of credit they're Shoring

32:56
up whereas before they may have given

32:59
the Mason or the cement company a credit

33:02
line at three percent for his

33:05
receivables they're charging him nine

33:08
percent SBA Loans for regional banks

33:10
have soared to 11 today God so if they

33:15
will give you a loan they're going to

33:16
Triple what they're charging you but

33:18
most likely if you need the money

33:19
they're not going to give it to you and

33:22
so now and this is a fact what's

33:25
happening in this is why it's going to

33:27
affect remember we talked about interest

33:28
rates remember we talked about this all

33:30
being interrelated we're talking about

33:32
inflation because the banks 50 of the

33:36
economy or more small businesses they no

33:38
longer can get credit from the city core

33:40
of the big Banks don't deal with small

33:42
businesses do Community Banks do they

33:45
now have had this credit is going to dry

33:48
up and when there's loans coming in

33:49
summer you're going to send contraction

33:51
of credit that's going to cause an

33:52
economic slowdown economic downturn this

33:56
is going to be equivalent of raising

33:58
interest rates two times

34:03
this is not my my opinion this is

34:06
straight from really smart people you

34:09
can look it up yourself two times

34:11
another two more rate Cuts could be the

34:14
effect of the contraction of the banks

34:16
now let's take a step further in 2024

34:19
and 2025. there's tons of commercial

34:22
real estate

34:23
um loans that are due now a lot of as we

34:27
know oxygen rate New York's now up to 13

34:30
35 in San Francisco 25 in Chicago so you

34:35
got a lot of empty offices you got a lot

34:37
of cash flow issues now their Bank what

34:40
those commercial loans roll over every

34:42
four or five years they're rolling over

34:44
in 2024-25 the big banks are saying wait

34:48
a minute I'm not going to lend you that

34:49
money at that rate you've got you got to

34:52
bring some more cash we're gonna have we

34:54
could have some commercial loan defaults

34:56
out of this because of tightening credit

34:58
this is where it's related and

35:01
unintended consequences the Regional

35:04
Bank issues the contraction of the

35:07
credit that is a necessary that is the

35:10
cause of that the The increased

35:12
regulation that's going to contract

35:14
lending is going to affect businesses

35:16
and real estate for the next 24 to 36

35:19
months having an added effect on slowing

35:22
down the economy we talk about it we're

35:25
gonna have a recession is it going to be

35:26
a software session it's going to be all

35:29
hard recession you gotta factor in the

35:31
effects of this credit contraction in

35:34
those discussions

35:36
so take away for the people is just hold

35:40
on it ain't over right

35:42
the economy probably I'd like to say one

35:45
of a soft Landing we've got to see what

35:46
the effects of this banking contraction

35:48
is going to be this puts pressure on the

35:51
camp that says we're going to have a

35:53
recession

35:55
yeah before we pivot to the next topic

35:57
my question to the listeners and viewers

35:59
because we're on all major podcast

36:01
platforms and the fun with annuities

36:03
YouTube channel if you want to see the

36:05
dynamic nature of what we look like

36:07
but my question to the viewers and and

36:09
listeners is does your current

36:12
advisor sound like this

36:16
do they talk like this do they have

36:18
insights like this do they have facts

36:20
like this do they have experience like

36:22
this

36:23
and I'm going to say 99 of your advisors

36:27
do not

36:29
which means you might want to check Owen

36:30
out this isn't a Shameless plug I'm

36:32
trying to

36:34
in these times you need someone really

36:36
smart

36:37
so you know check Owen out you know

36:40
schrumpw.com Shameless plug is a

36:43
personal friend of mine

36:45
and um and I just I just think what he

36:48
does is unique

36:50
and it's needed

36:53
and people need to know about it which

36:55
is I'm just so happy to have him on oh

36:57
and let's talk about the debt limit and

37:00
the

37:01
I don't want to talk politics because

37:03
both sides make me want to vomit

37:06
but give us the real take on what's

37:08
going on screw the media they're it's

37:11
ridiculous that was the debt limit stuff

37:14
if I was a good actor I'd feign falling

37:17
asleep on the screen and snore what to

37:20
do about nothing this has happened 19

37:21
times

37:24
it why

37:25
is it just because you know for ads and

37:28
clicks is that yes I mean every time

37:30
this happens I'm like

37:32
Shimmer sit down McCarthy sit down

37:35
whoever's in the off presidential chair

37:38
sit down if you can

37:40
um I just it drives me crazy oh so we're

37:44
just we're just running on a treadmill

37:46
again is what you're telling me so

37:49
um it's happened 19 times it almost

37:52
always happens whenever you've got

37:55
divided government meaning the president

37:56
and houses are not

37:59
um

38:00
I'm sure we've got audience members

38:02
who've invested for a long time 10 years

38:04
ago the market since 10 years it's more

38:07
than doubled I think that's that's a

38:08
fair just a fair statement your

38:10
Investments have doubled 10 years ago we

38:13
had the worst debt crisis of all time

38:16
with President Obama and

38:19
senate representative Boehner so much so

38:22
if you remember Boehner like the one

38:25
that cries every time when he says hello

38:26
okay go ahead if you remember audience

38:30
they shut down the national parks

38:33
they shut down no Yogi Bear no yoga they

38:37
shut down the national parks you

38:39
couldn't go in the plaza they shut down

38:41
tours it was all they shut down

38:44
libraries

38:45
it was all say they were

38:49
since then they settled it in the last

38:51
hour they did an extension they settled

38:53
it they've done it twice since then

38:55
they're going to do it this time

38:58
um

38:58
there's lots of things we can discuss

39:01
lots of things we've already discussed

39:03
that you need to think about for your

39:05
for your standard this ain't one the

39:08
same one of them this ain't one of them

39:10
have they say in the South it ain't one

39:12
of them well let's talk about debt in

39:14
general not the political crap that's

39:16
going on now as I understand it and

39:19
there is many ways to count debt but

39:22
aren't we at 31 trillion and Counting

39:23
and what does that mean means that for

39:26
the largest period in history with the

39:28
percentage of the GDP I don't have the

39:30
percentage but we've now reached

39:33
debt is a percentage of the GDP by far

39:36
it's doubled since in the past eight

39:38
years

39:39
and it's it's a problem

39:43
I saw an interesting stat and

39:47
I I think this is correct the increase

39:50
in the debt load

39:52
stand to your audience you know we I

39:54
told you they've increased remember we

39:55
borrowed those 31 trillion dollars have

39:57
to pay interest you have to pay interest

39:59
on those to bondholders uh the increase

40:02
in the past 12 months and the debt and

40:05
just the interest on the debt not the

40:07
interest on the debt just the increase

40:09
in the interest on the debt is larger

40:12
than the defense budget

40:14
which means that that Abu pal

40:18
you know

40:19
it's like I always tell people this is

40:21
very simple if you had a mortgage let's

40:23
just say you did

40:24
and you just said you know what I'm

40:26
going to raise the interest rate on the

40:28
mortgage that would not be smart

40:29
eventually you'd want to lower it back

40:31
down isn't it that basic of a

40:32
correlation sure

40:36
it's a little more complex when you're

40:39
looking at a national economy and I

40:40
don't want to get into the politics of

40:42
this you just get a little bit of

40:45
kinsian versus Supply but oh I just fell

40:48
asleep I'm sorry

40:51
our economy is built upon the fact that

40:54
the private sector

40:56
invests and builds

40:59
they take Capital they multiply that

41:01
Capital by hiring people creating

41:03
products you hire people create products

41:06
Apple makes a phone 100 companies make

41:09
parts in that phone right it's a

41:11
multiplier effect Irish people creates

41:13
taxes grows the wealth grows the GDP

41:16
when the government takes that wealth or

41:19
for debt

41:21
it doesn't do that

41:24
it doesn't create doesn't have a

41:26
multiplier effect it doesn't build

41:29
business so the more resources any

41:33
government let's not pick on ours the

41:35
more resources any government takes away

41:37
from the private sector the slower that

41:39
economy is going to grow right now

41:42
particularly when that's just that's

41:44
just interest on the debt I mean that's

41:46
dead money that's just waste it has no

41:48
multiplier effect right so the more

41:52
resources the slower the economic growth

41:54
is going to be instead of growing I mean

41:57
two to three percent which by the way

41:59
when you grow two to three percent you

42:00
grow faster than your debt and that way

42:02
you your your your your debt is less

42:06
important because your economy is

42:07
growing faster than your debt but when

42:09
you slow growth suddenly that government

42:11
spending becomes even important it's a

42:13
visually it's a giant anchor

42:17
on the economy you used your household

42:20
you you worked hard but both you and

42:23
your wife or you're retired and you've

42:24
got your income lined out everything's

42:27
great you can go on vacation you can pay

42:29
your mortgages and all of a sudden

42:31
they increase the insurance on your

42:34
house by a hundred thousand dollars

42:37
so you've got to go cut you got to stop

42:40
spending somewhere right right got to

42:43
pay it that's what businesses have to do

42:45
when the government's taking that money

42:46
out of the economy they have to stop

42:48
spending on growth what are

42:51
um what are some of the positive Trends

42:53
you're seeing in the economy because one

42:54
of the things I love about this country

42:55
not to start singing the um I'm Proud To

42:58
Be An American song

43:00
um is that when we go through crisis

43:03
covet

43:04
Etc we have a country

43:06
and I'm a little biased here that reacts

43:09
changes and and and gets better that's

43:12
what I love about us is as a country is

43:14
we just don't say well that that hurt

43:17
that well you know I guess it'll happen

43:18
again no we try to prevent it

43:21
so what are some of the positive things

43:24
you're seeing

43:25
in the country right now or in the

43:28
global environment inflation is getting

43:31
back under control

43:33
number one number two despite inflation

43:36
being 10 companies earnings small and

43:39
large businesses are actually holding up

43:41
better than people thought because

43:43
they're smart

43:45
they've increased prices they've they've

43:48
gotten lean the management of business

43:52
in this country has to done a remarkably

43:54
good job through covid keeping the who

43:57
would have ever guessed in 2020 that you

44:00
couldn't get on an airplane because

44:01
every seat was full

44:03
no doubt man no doubt I fly all the time

44:07
and it's just

44:08
it's packed yeah this country is so

44:13
resilient church can I say a side note

44:15
though I think the seats need to be

44:17
larger and Coach that's just my opinion

44:20
the physics is not working when I when I

44:24
see that of course of course of course

44:26
I'm flying first class but as I see them

44:28
walking past me as I'm drinking my

44:30
coffee I'm thinking that ain't a work

44:32
player

44:35
uh to answer your question in one

44:37
sentence Winston Churchill had a great

44:39
line in World War II he says I'm

44:42
paraphrasing I hope I get it right the

44:45
United States will exhaust every

44:46
opportunity to do the wrong thing in the

44:49
end when Force 2 will always do the

44:51
right thing that's a good way to put it

44:53
I mean even though politics is crazy and

44:55
you know the whole political correctness

44:58
and wokeness and and friends right

45:00
whatever friends write friends left both

45:03
nuts

45:05
um it seems like I got an interject this

45:07
man well we all now know Alexander

45:10
Hamilton is right guys I do and by the

45:12
way Owen I did go see the the Broadway

45:14
play and set through the whole thing I

45:16
I'm impressed yeah now that we know how

45:19
important an American he was remember

45:21
founding fathers the all those smart

45:24
people

45:25
Aaron Burr shot him and killed him the

45:28
vice president of the United States shot

45:30
him and killed him and is a duel

45:31
politics have always been ugly in this

45:34
country

45:35
and it always will always say Owen and I

45:38
think um I'm not sure you can fit into

45:40
this because you're so dashing but

45:42
always say it's an ugly world and I fit

45:44
in perfectly

45:46
um you can quote me on that

45:49
um tell me what your what's your boy

45:50
Jeremy Siegel saying about all this

45:52
chaos because tell first of all tell

45:54
people who Jeremy Siegel is and if it's

45:56
not on their radar screen it needs to be

45:59
Dr Siegel is noted Professor Wharton

46:04
business school best of mine most famous

46:08
he was asked back in the 80s to write a

46:10
definitive book on the stock market

46:11
stocks for the long term and it's not

46:13
your normal book he researched and had

46:15
all the Wharton people research stocks

46:17
going back to before they kept records

46:19
to prove all the trends and

46:22
um and historical references to the Star

46:26
Wars It's the definitive work on the

46:28
stock market and mine in your day he was

46:30
famous in 1999 I remember Stan he said

46:34
we are this is a bubble

46:37
um the NASDAQ can't go up is it's a it's

46:41
in financial bubble it will crash

46:44
everyone laughed him at him he did his

46:47
track record he doesn't pick stocks he

46:49
picks economic Trends and he has been

46:52
remarkable in his accuracy he got on a

46:56
call with us March 30th April 1st 2020

47:00
said inflation is coming however the

47:03
stock market will recover guess what

47:06
inflation came stock market ended up

47:09
positive for 2020.

47:11
very smart man he has been and you can

47:15
go on CBC records or just Googling he

47:18
has been a

47:20
outspoken critic unbelievably so I mean

47:23
yo what did he say about the FED

47:25
recently you were telling me that what

47:26
did he say he said uh chairman Powell

47:30
owes the American public an apology

47:34
that'd be nice

47:36
but for him to say that the most notable

47:39
that's a lot that's a lot that's a lot

47:41
yeah um he he's accurately he said the

47:44
Federal Reserve should have raised

47:46
interest rates in 2023 a little bit and

47:49
this instead of lowering them and it

47:51
would have all worked through the system

47:52
they did it he said they should have

47:55
stopped raising interest rates third

47:56
quarter of 2023 last year

47:59
they didn't he said they've overshot on

48:02
interest rates they're using stale data

48:04
they're using real estate data showing

48:07
things that rents are still going up

48:09
because they're using data from nine

48:10
months ago and and that that he's been

48:15
remarkably

48:17
poorly executed Federal Reserve policy

48:21
most importantly he says they should

48:24
stop raising interest rates immediately

48:26
should change their tone remember what I

48:29
said about the biggest thing in Federal

48:31
Reserve is just stop talking

48:34
and just say okay we're going to use the

48:36
numbers inflations waning we gotta

48:38
control we'll wait and see if he did

48:40
that we'd be fine six months later

48:43
they'd stop cutting start cutting rates

48:45
probably he says inflation will end up

48:48
averaging 2.3 percent next year

48:51
and interest rates will be 3.5 percent

48:57
we'll just follow two people from Market

48:59
stuff Jeremy Siegel and Owen Shrum who I

49:02
now deem as the Dean Smith of private

49:05
wealth management no offense to NC State

49:07
fans out there

49:08
if you I can say it he's the Dean Smith

49:11
he's the gold standard of private wealth

49:13
management for individuals but if you

49:15
follow just Owen and Jeremy Siegel

49:18
you'll be fine one last topic going and

49:21
I know you're just leaning into this you

49:23
just love it because now let me give you

49:25
some audience some background we first

49:27
did the first

49:28
fund with annuities podcast with guests

49:31
when my PRC team said you know it'd

49:33
really be good Stein if you had guests

49:35
on and you'd like to share their

49:36
knowledge and I'm like okay and so Owen

49:38
came on and at that point in time

49:41
Bitcoin was 66 000.

49:44
and we blasted it and we got so much

49:47
hate mail it was overwhelming now of

49:50
course we were right and Owen was right

49:52
give me your take currently on the

49:54
bounce here because I still don't

49:56
understand it there's still no

49:58
underlying value yes bitcoiners come at

50:00
me baby

50:02
what's your take oh

50:04
foreign

50:07
it goes back to the initial comments

50:10
about the degree of liquidity there's so

50:13
much money out there chasing assets and

50:18
whether or not and I do not believe I

50:21
still maintain there's no stored value

50:23
outside of the technology okay the

50:25
blockchain is legitimate but we're

50:28
talking about the 7 000 cryptocurrencies

50:31
there has been a much needed ShakeOut

50:34
with possibly more to come however

50:36
there's still a lot of money in that

50:38
area it went on the sidelines when it

50:41
went down to what 14 000 last year it's

50:45
going back in there's still devotees

50:47
there's still I mean Stan I read that

50:49
average person average person under 30

50:52
and there's some people with wealth

50:53
under 30 particularly of course and that

50:55
they buy more CR they just are believers

50:58
they've been raised with it and they

50:59
believe it whether I do or not they do

51:02
and some of their wealth is going back

51:04
there

51:05
so it's just assets going into a

51:08
technology and it's increasing its value

51:10
I mean there's money going into it is

51:12
your answer why a lot of young people

51:14
believe in crypto more than they believe

51:17
in the S P 500 they do they do and

51:19
that's

51:20
absolute nuts to me but I'm you know

51:23
Owen as you know I'm old

51:26
and so you know I'm dating myself

51:28
speaking of old if you want another take

51:30
on crypto dial up and read what Charlie

51:33
Munger and Warren Buffett says about it

51:36
yo Buffett said he wouldn't give 25 for

51:38
all of it that's he did I love that and

51:41
Monger said something even worse oh you

51:44
know if I'm 98 Owen can you picture me

51:46
at 98 how brutal I'll be oh my gosh

51:57
what's another one I'm missing there

52:00
that's from that age that I really need

52:02
to

52:03
listen Park bowling and T-Rex Martha

52:06
Hoople David Bowie Mick Ronson

52:09
yeah there's a great David Bowie

52:10
document here on HBO right now that just

52:12
very Visionary and you know

52:15
uh when I retire that's my look going in

52:18
it's probably David Bowie either that or

52:20
Jen Yellen or a combination of the two

52:23
um

52:24
what no Alex Harvey in The Sensational

52:28
Alex Harvey band oh my gosh wow

52:32
oh and we're up against you man you know

52:34
that me and you we could chat like this

52:37
forever I enjoy it I tell your audience

52:41
but here's and again Owen Trump

52:45
it's it's schrum www

52:51
s-c-h-r-u-m-p-w.com PW sounds for stands

52:54
for private well

52:55
check him out you know if you don't have

52:58
to listen to this I have no I don't know

53:00
when you hit your head and how much how

53:02
many paint chips you've eaten but uh I

53:05
mean he is I mean he's the real deal

53:07
he's the real deal if you haven't

53:09
figured it out unfortunately I got in

53:12
the way with some you know my brain goes

53:14
down the rabbit hole sometimes and then

53:15
Owen has figured that out because we

53:17
used to work together and he's like

53:18
grabbing me there's good information out

53:21
there that I think think you did you did

53:22
a good service to your audience bringing

53:24
you on you're right one last thing and

53:26
that you know with all of my guests is

53:28
the mic drop moment of which I count you

53:30
down 54321 and then you're gonna say

53:33
something

53:34
that is going to be Evergreen content

53:36
that people will always refer to even

53:38
after your Learjet hits the mountain and

53:41
they're gonna say remember when Owen did

53:42
that mic drop moment on Stan's podcast

53:44
so no pressure whatsoever Owen but I'm

53:47
gonna count you down so get prepared

53:49
here's the mic drop moment and then I'll

53:51
close this out after that here we go my

53:54
drop moment oh and Shrum five four three

53:57
two one go

54:00
we are going to be facing a lot of

54:02
uncertainty going forward in the next 18

54:04
months shrink your sources of

54:07
information to proven people stay with

54:10
solid Diversified assets that have

54:13
proven over time to be outperformers and

54:16
inflationary High tax Mark markets

54:20
um

54:21
can we say hallelujah that from the

54:23
south very very good

54:25
um listen I want to thank everybody that

54:28
joined us on all major podcast platforms

54:30
uh the the YouTube channel fun with

54:33
annuities obviously I appreciate you

54:35
tuning Us in check Owen out I appreciate

54:37
on you being on and I will see you guys

54:40
yeah we'll see you next time on what's

54:43
not what's it called it's called fun

54:45
with annuities

54:50
[Music]