Martin Parlato: How Politics Affects Your Investments

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welcome to fun with annuities with your

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host me Stan the annuity man America's

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annuity agent can annuities be fun can

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they can find out the brutal facts about

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annuities with no sales pitches or high

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pressure nonsense just the brutal and

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factual annuity truth which is all you

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need to hear let's have some fun with

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annuities and let's have that fun start

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right

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[Music]

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now welcome to fun with annuities I'm

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your host Stan the annuity man America's

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annuity agent licensed in all 50 states

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I want to welcome every single person

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listening on all the ma major podcast

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platforms on the fun with annuities

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YouTube channel thank you so much this

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is one of the fastest growing podcast in

0:55
the business uh category in the country

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and the reason for that is we have great

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guests on guest today is Martin parlat

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to me he's one of the most talented

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onair um Educators edutainer in the

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financial space in the country the fact

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that Jim Kramer is on national

1:13
television and Martin parlot is not is

1:15
an AB absolute crime um I consider him a

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friend uh he's a good person and he

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knows his stuff so with further Ado I

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want to welcome to the show Martin

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parotto welcome Martin

1:30
hey Stan good to see you again let's

1:33
Jump Right In world's chaotic inflation

1:36
Biden Putin markets Bond markets

1:41
interest

1:42
rates chairman pal I cannot wait to hear

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you just start rolling so start rolling

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with anything you want to get started

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with so I I was reading today a speech

1:53
from Ester Williams at the Kansas City

1:56
fed

1:58
and one of the problems with Americas

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nobody reads anything anymore you rely

2:02
on Shan Hannity you rely on Lori Ingram

2:05
and the money honey and um you just get

2:08
no news you get no information so I was

2:11
listening to or reading Esther Williams

2:14
speech

2:16
today and it it completely agrees with

2:20
me which is to say that it completely

2:22
agrees with chairman fed pal fed chare

2:25
Powell and you got to go back to Fed

2:28
chare pow's

2:30
November

2:31
speech which I was in Tampa I was

2:34
driving I was I was in Tampa seeing a

2:36
client and um I I had plenty of

2:39
opportunity to listen to the entire

2:41
interview and the

2:42
speech and and where we are according

2:46
to Esther Williams the the the Kansas

2:49
City fed president and Jay pal

2:52
is we are in the midst of a monetary

3:00
problem and a fiscal

3:03
problem the problem that the fed's got

3:06
if you listen to j

3:08
po is that there are things within its

3:12
control that the FED can control right

3:16
it can control the demand side of

3:20
inflation what it cannot control is the

3:24
supply side of inflation right so you

3:29
have you had Micron come out this

3:31
morning and say wait a minute uh we got

3:34
all these semiconductor chips all these

3:36
memory chips and the economy is so bad

3:41
we got nobody to sell them

3:43
to because the second half of the year

3:47
is so dubious as to his performance you

3:50
had Snapchat last night say look we we

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got this great advertising platform but

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who the hell wants to advertise why

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would Cadillac want to advertise for an

4:00
Escalade when Marty's been trying to buy

4:02
an Escalade for two years and they're

4:04
none of them available you had Toyota

4:07
come out this morning and they're going

4:10
to cut production again you got Ford

4:13
cutting production because they got no

4:14
semiconductors you got General Motors

4:17
cutting nobody's got no stuff nobody's

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got no stuff to

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advertise and the FED can't fix that you

4:27
know there's an old saying my

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brother-in-law used to say say you know

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Marty you can't fix

4:33
stupid and you know Forest Gump always

4:37
says stupid is as stupid does so if you

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listen to Jay Powell in November in

4:44
November he told

4:46
you in the conference call that the

4:50
problem was Joe Biden the problem is

4:54
government

4:55
spending and it's the supply chain

4:59
stupid

5:00
the government cannot fix the supply

5:03
chain and and nothing the FED can do can

5:06
fix the supply chain or or the or the or

5:10
the services the the labor part of the

5:13
problem you can't pay people to stay

5:15
home and expect there to be enough

5:18
waitresses or or expect her to be I

5:20
tried to order a cake yesterday for

5:23
Linda's birthday her 50th her 68th

5:25
birthday is uh Monday I tried to order a

5:28
cake at a local Baker

5:30
they cannot accept the order because

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they don't have enough people to make a

5:35
cake in America cannot cannot make a

5:39
cake in America for delivery a week from

5:43
now so the problem that the economy is

5:46
going through is a question of demand

5:51
destruction we're we're seeing today you

5:53
saw snap today you've seen Facebook in

5:57
the last few weeks you've seen a half a

5:59
dozen companies in the last few days

6:02
begin to lay off employees and that's

6:05
what's going to happen that's what's

6:07
going to happen when Facebook has no

6:10
advertising they're going to start

6:12
laying off employees and it's already

6:16
begun so now you have the real question

6:19
of is the Federal Reserve pushing so

6:25
hard you have a balance you have a

6:28
supply side of it and the demand side of

6:30
it if on the if you can't increase

6:37
supplies then all you can do is decrease

6:40
demand and if you try to decrease the

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demand side so hard that it compensates

6:46
for the supply side that's when you send

6:49
the country into recession that's when

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you send the country into

6:54
stagflation and unless we can get the

6:57
supply side of this country opened

7:01
up you have a very high likelihood of

7:04
recession or

7:05
stagflation or

7:08
worse I've been arguing on the radio

7:11
program on our show for weeks for weeks

7:16
that the president needs

7:18
to cut a purchase order to

7:20
Venezuela we know for a fact the Chevron

7:25
is already in

7:27
Venezuela with a trading desk open

7:30
Chevron is ready to sh to start shipping

7:33
oil from

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Venezuela if the president gives them

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permission to do so you say well Sean

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and and I ran it and raved on it over

7:43
the week Sean Hannity Laura Ingram Maria

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baroma the money honey right well we

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can't we can't buy oil from a death spot

7:51
like Madura why do I care what despot we

7:54
buy oil from everybody's a despot

7:57
everybody that has oil

8:00
is a despot it's the nature of being oil

8:02
Rich you become a despot ifo

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Fatso what do I care which Des spot we

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buy well we need to drill baby drill

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drill in America drill in America I

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don't think you people understand first

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of all that's six months to a year out

8:16
before that oil hits the hits the

8:18
economy and second of all the oil

8:22
companies don't want to drill if you're

8:24
Pioneer and you're

8:27
paying uh an 1110 11% dividend your

8:31
shareholders don't want you to drill

8:34
they want you to

8:37
continue to to drill at present levels

8:41
and then

8:43
benefit from the higher pricing they

8:45
don't want you to put more Capital

8:47
expenditures in and the reason for that

8:51
this is really Ted Cruz was on CNBC

8:55
today Ted should run for

8:58
president Ted Cruz Ted Cruz nailed it

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it's not like it's not like it was an

9:03
original thought because I had already

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thought it a lot of people had already

9:06
thought

9:07
it the dastard with a D in all of this

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is the scumbags at Black Rock the people

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that make the ey shares that are in all

9:18
of your 401ks that are in all of your

9:20
IRAs right the same scumbag company

9:24
that's going to let you put worthless

9:26
Bitcoin in your 401k

9:30
what the reason that a Pioneer or a

9:33
Devon or a schlum or Chevron or an Exon

9:37
doesn't want to invest and drill baby

9:40
drill is that you've had black rock for

9:43
the

9:44
last two and a half three

9:47
years promoting this notion of eni

9:50
environmental social and governance

9:52
you've had Black Rock cutting off

9:55
financing cutting off all forms of in

9:59
investment in the oil services and the

10:01
oil industry because they're dirty

10:03
they're nasty and then what they've done

10:06
is they've turned around in order to be

10:08
as woke as they can possibly be they

10:12
Black Rock literally said that there

10:15
would be no contribution from the ey

10:17
shares company into the energy sector so

10:22
you've got these companies starving for

10:25
financing star and then they're afraid

10:28
that once they do start drilling again

10:31
black Rock's going to pull the rug out

10:32
from underneath them black Rock's gonna

10:35
remember inves let

10:38
me down to two and a half three and a

10:40
half

10:41
4% of the uh entire S&P 500 there there

10:46
was virtually a year ago there was

10:48
virtually no investment in the energy

10:50
sector this idea Marty you're gonna get

10:53
a hey Marty let me let me interrupt real

10:56
quick hold on a second let interrupt

10:59
real quick if you if you haven't put on

11:03
your seat belt yet that's Marty parlat

11:06
and he is rolling now I don't know what

11:09
I think we got a little bit of a

11:11
communication issue with headsets and

11:13
stuff because I'm not sure he can hear

11:14
me as well as I can hear him but I'm

11:15
glad that you can hear

11:18
him um but Marty I want to I want to

11:22
make sure that we cover the items that

11:25
my my listeners and viewers definitely

11:28
want you to cover okay you you touched

11:32
on it I mean that's that's one of the

11:34
best intro rants of all time on my show

11:38
and that's the reason I wanted to have

11:39
you

11:40
on since you mentioned it let's go to

11:44
crypto and I want to

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hear what you're thinking here because I

11:48
got a feeling it's we're we're on the

11:50
same page and

11:53
um I just want to hear your thoughts on

11:56
crypto and the whole the whole space

12:00
what's happening to it and what you're

12:02
predicting down the road for the future

12:04
of that I think and I said on a radio

12:07
show two weeks ago that when the

12:10
postmortem of this crash is done I think

12:14
you're G to find crypto had a lot to do

12:16
with it I think crypto is crap I think

12:18
it's totally worthless you cannot name

12:21
for me one thing that crypto does one

12:25
argument was well if the whole world

12:28
comes to an I'll have my stash at crypto

12:30
nobody can steal it and the government

12:33
can't find it well we've already seen

12:34
many millions of dollars stolen in

12:36
crypto so the idea that it's safe and

12:39
can't be hacked that's total bull it's

12:41
total bull we see that it tracks almost

12:46
precisely the NASDAQ stocks it trades

12:48
like a tech stock which means that it

12:50
has no value I think you're going to

12:54
find that there was a lot that that a

12:57
lot of crypto was bought on

13:01
margin because you have young guys that

13:03
are able to trade options and willing to

13:05
use margin particularly because you know

13:08
folks like the robin hoods teach them

13:10
and educate them on how to do it yep and

13:13
I think you're G to find a lot of the

13:15
selling that was done in an apple or an

13:17
Amazon or forget about Amazon just a

13:19
horrible

13:20
company

13:22
um or Microsoft or Google I think you're

13:25
going to find there was a lot of options

13:27
tra I I think you're going to find that

13:29
a lot of people have margined their real

13:32
brokerage accounts in order to buy

13:35
crypto in order to buy energy shares and

13:39
that those I think you're going to see

13:42
them I think you're going to see those

13:43
positions

13:44
Unwound I think you're G to see

13:47
governments I think when you see the

13:49
good folks anytime you see the good

13:51
Folks at Black Rock I used to say why

13:55
would anybody want Bonds in their

13:57
portfolio 401k

13:59
well the reason is the good Folks at

14:01
Black Rock are stuck with billions and

14:02
billions and billions of dollars of them

14:05
and so they want you to put 40% of your

14:07
portfolio in bonds bonds that they don't

14:09
want to own now you got the issue of

14:13
crypto so why are the good Folks at

14:15
crypto and the United States government

14:17
going to let you

14:20
put an investment like crypto in your

14:23
401k they won't let you put stock

14:25
options in it they won't let you put

14:27
leverag ETFs in it but now they're going

14:29
to let you put cpto currency in it no

14:32
pure garbage pure garbage has no value

14:36
um you've seen you've seen uh I think

14:38
you saw Christine lagard the other day

14:40
say that she believe from from the EU

14:42
say that it was totally worthless and

14:45
and and and then you get down to the

14:47
other you know governments have two

14:49
governments can do two things Stan that

14:51
you and I can't do governments can kill

14:55
people and governments can print money

14:58
now they're never going going to give up

14:59
the right to kill people either by the

15:01
death penalty or by War and they're sure

15:04
as hell not going to give up the ability

15:05
to print money right you have to pay

15:07
your taxes in US Dollars correct you

15:09
can't pay your do taxes in Gold you

15:11
can't pay it in diamonds and you can't

15:13
pay it in cpto currency so you got to

15:15
pay for it in US Dollars there's no way

15:19
any government is going to yield the

15:21
power to print currency it's total

15:24
garbage it's total crap and you should

15:26
not buy any of it and it doesn't do

15:29
anything it's not a differentiator it's

15:31
it's it's down huge where's it going in

15:33
price

15:36
zero zero what do you what do you say to

15:38
the Miami mayor that put all that money

15:40
down there in crypto or the or the other

15:43
nicar I mean what country did did base

15:46
their currency on it I mean there's

15:47
going to be some

15:49
problems what do I say to the Miami you

15:51
know you know Miami used to be an

15:53
Economy based on cocaine now it's based

15:55
on crac surrency okay I'm good with that

15:58
you know

16:00
Miami Miami's trying Miami's trying to

16:03
induce technology companies to come to

16:06
Florida which which I think is admirable

16:09
and you know I just don't think that the

16:12
cryptocurrency you know if if you're if

16:16
if you made a lot of money Jim Kramer

16:18
made a lot of money on crypto and bought

16:20
a farm or something great you know you

16:22
can make a lot of money trading stocks

16:24
trading options trading crypto trading

16:26
anything and as long as you're not the

16:28
last guy out the door it you know you

16:31
can convert you can convert crypto to

16:33
real money so if you made a lot of money

16:36
and you took your profits God bless you

16:38
and you know now you got real money do

16:41
you think do you think that this will be

16:44
another chapter like tulip bulbs was a

16:46
chapter do you think that we're going to

16:48
look back on

16:50
cryptocurrency and just shake our heads

16:53
or do you think it will survive in some

16:54
form or

16:56
fashion every government in the world is

16:59
trying to create a digital currency so

17:03
once once China had you know you go over

17:06
to China on your iPhone and buy a pack

17:09
of cigarettes with digital currency

17:11
right now but once but once the Chinese

17:14
government finds out that you're buying

17:16
cigarettes you're going to get a knock

17:17
on the door from the health department

17:19
telling you to stop buying cigarettes

17:21
the same thing you you're going to get a

17:23
situation in the United States when

17:25
digital currency gets here you're not

17:26
going to have to fill out a a tax return

17:29
the government's already going to have a

17:30
record of your income I agree it's going

17:32
to be on your iPhone they're going to

17:34
have a record of everything you buy on

17:36
your iPhone they're going to have a

17:37
record of every expense that you've

17:39
bought they're going to be able to

17:40
categorize it and they're just going to

17:42
mail you your tax return at the end of

17:44
the year and say uh you got 24 hours to

17:46
make these funds available or we're

17:48
going to hit your bank account it you

17:50
know it's going to be a tremendous

17:52
invasion of privacy the days of lying on

17:55
your tax return are coming to an end so

17:57
do you think that there the government's

18:00
going to let the crypto crash happen and

18:03
then step in and say okay we're going to

18:05
do it right because it were the United

18:07
States government do you is that what

18:09
you're envisioning no I think Black Rock

18:11
bribed them I think Black Rock I think I

18:14
think black rocks Black Rock is in bed

18:17
with the Democrats with Hillary with

18:19
Barack with with the bidens black Black

18:22
Rock are the biggest Democrats and

18:25
socialists in the world I think black

18:27
rock is presently in the process of

18:29
offloading their cryptocurrency into

18:32
your 401k and your IRA and um you know

18:36
it'll have some value for some period of

18:39
time but

18:41
um you know I don't know anything that

18:44
it does I mean it was supposed to

18:46
protect you it was supposed to protect

18:48
you against these kinds of stock market

18:51
crashes correct and it doesn't do

18:53
anything it it's not safe it's not legal

18:57
tender

18:59
uh it's not

19:00
discreet and it's not a differentiator

19:02
of value it does nothing it has no

19:05
value got it hey let's pivot to interest

19:08
rates and our friend chairman pal where

19:11
do you think the interest rate R raises

19:13
are going to finish at what level do you

19:17
think they're do you think they're going

19:18
to keep their word and continue to raise

19:21
interest rates because you and I both

19:23
know even though the FED is supposed to

19:24
be autonomous and and and not be bullied

19:27
by politicians they are they have been

19:30
they will be so what are you predicting

19:32
where interest rates are going to finish

19:34
up I think

19:37
that I think that the Kansas City Fed

19:40
was very clear

19:41
today you have you have I think chairman

19:44
pal is going to go a half a basis point

19:46
for at least the next two meetings that

19:48
that's fairly well baked in I think he's

19:50
more likely to go Steady Eddy than any

19:54
kind of surprise hike like Paul vuler

19:57
did but

19:59
Kansas City fed today said was very

20:02
clear what we need to see is we need to

20:05
see a concrete

20:07
breaking of inflations

20:09
back but if we continue to see the

20:13
supply chain disruptions in other words

20:15
the supply side the supply does not

20:18
increase if the supply does not come up

20:20
to meet

20:21
demand then you may have a situation

20:24
where the FED has to act much more

20:26
dramatically and what's Crystal clear

20:29
here is Joe Biden and that crowd is

20:31
doing nothing absolutely nothing to deal

20:35
with the supply chain and and that's

20:38
everything from baby food to

20:39
semiconductors to a birthday cake for

20:42
Linda to a Cadillac

20:45
Escalade you

20:47
know I I and I and Stan I don't know

20:50
where it went I don't know why we had

20:52
semiconductors before the pandemic we

20:55
had two years of pandemic where we were

20:57
accumulating semiconductors and suddenly

20:59
there's not a semiconductor chip to be

21:01
bought I don't I don't know where that

21:03
comes from I don't know how that could

21:05
happen

21:07
um so in 20 where it all went in

21:11
2024 two two years from the time of this

21:14
taping the tenure treasury is at what

21:19
level three three and three three maybe

21:23
three three and a half so it's not going

21:25
to be as dra as as drastic of raises as

21:28
are promising is what you're saying well

21:31
in in terms of real interest rates

21:33
inflation adjusted real interest rates

21:35
we're still negative correct we're still

21:38
negative so if you think somebody like

21:40
Tim Cook at Apple gives a crap about a

21:44
one or two% increase in interest rates

21:46
that's not it yeah I listen to all of

21:49
the conference calls I listen to Apple I

21:50
listen to Google I listen to I listen to

21:53
I listen to all of the conference calls

21:55
nobody nobody said anything about

21:58
interest rates all they talked about was

22:01
supply chain and inflation that's all

22:05
they talked about supply chain supply

22:06
chain apple is warning of a four to

22:10
eight billion dollar um decrease in

22:13
sales not because of interest rates but

22:16
because they don't know if China is

22:17
going to reopen right they don't know

22:20
what the covid situation in China is and

22:22
whether they'll be able to get

22:23
components in China I think Apple's

22:25
sandbagging I think they'll I think

22:27
they'll exceed their expectations but

22:29
not one of those companies said anything

22:32
about interest rates because we're

22:34
normalizing interest rates we're not

22:36
planning to raise interest we're

22:39
planning to

22:40
normalize interest rates and that's a

22:43
good thing because you know even when

22:46
you you know we don't want to talk about

22:47
annuities too much but even when you

22:49
talk about annuities as these interest

22:51
rates rise people now have Alternatives

22:54
you can go buy a bond portfolio paying

22:57
four and a half five five and a half

22:59
six% depending on the credit quality you

23:02
can go buy dividend paying stocks um

23:05
with a higher yield

23:07
so it's a good thing because what we're

23:10
finding from our clients is all of our

23:13
clients sign an investment policy

23:15
statement telling me what their risk

23:17
tolerance is and we know that 90% of

23:19
them are either lying to me or lying to

23:21
themselves the risk Tolerance on the

23:24
market is going up is is is full-blown

23:27
risk when the markets coming down oh you

23:30
know there goes their risk

23:31
tolerance and and that's because a lot

23:33
of them should not be in the stock

23:37
market but then it's Tina right there's

23:39
nowhere else there no other there's no

23:40
other place to go there's no other

23:43
alternative once you normalize interest

23:46
rates it'll be better for senior

23:48
citizens it'll it'll be better for

23:50
income investors I agree so we got to

23:54
get there and I'm telling to say what

23:57
I'm trying to say is is it's the supply

24:00
chain stupid it's not the normalization

24:03
of interest rates that's not where the

24:06
problem is the problem is Apple doesn't

24:10
know if China is going to be in lockdown

24:14
or whether they can produce the

24:16
components that Apple needs Google

24:19
doesn't know if Apple's going to

24:21
advertise

24:22
iPhones on the Google platform because

24:25
Apple doesn't need to advertise iPads

24:28
when they don't have any iPads I ordered

24:30
an iPad the other day it's two weeks out

24:32
to get an iPad I ordered a huge Mac for

24:35
one of my my staff one of the Big Macs

24:37
one the desktop Macs and it took us two

24:40
months to get it start to finish two

24:42
months and and if you've ever ordered

24:45
anything from Apple in the past it was

24:47
like on hammered it yeah and and and and

24:52
so but but if you notice what Apple's

24:54
doing right you see this commercial on

24:56
TV you see this bigy at the at the at

25:00
the convenience store he's got a candy

25:01
bar shoved in his mouth and he doesn't

25:03
have any money so he goes onto his phone

25:05
and he opens it up and he downloads the

25:08
U Apple credit card app and he applies

25:10
for an Apple credit card and two seconds

25:11
later he's got an Apple credit card and

25:13
he pays for the candy bar with Apple pay

25:16
that's not being a that that commercial

25:19
is not on TV by accident that

25:21
commercials on TV because Apple doesn't

25:25
have any

25:26
hardware to sell

25:29
because it has no components so it's

25:32
advertising part of its services

25:34
business right which it which it has

25:36
unlimited capacity no no absolutely so

25:40
normal interest rates mean what I mean

25:43
what level are you talking is that 5%

25:47
6% it's it's no normalized interest

25:50
rates are going to be in the two and a

25:52
half 3% range okay you know that's that

25:55
that's not going to kill an apple that's

25:57
not going to make houses unaffordable

25:59
that's not going to make you know a

26:01
client came up to me a client came up to

26:03
me the other day said oh the gas prices

26:05
are so high oh they're $4 doll $5 I said

26:08
wait a minute what kind of car are you

26:10
driving well I'm driving a Camry I said

26:12
well you get 30 32 miles to the gallon

26:14
right yeah I said back with back in the

26:17
70s and nothing's changed when I first

26:20
got married it was in I got out of Kenny

26:22
at 71 I I got married or I got married

26:25
in 72 right All in the Family

26:28
nothing's changed since Archie Bunker

26:30
and All in the Family you still got gas

26:32
prices you still got brown outs you

26:34
still got race riots you got Battle of

26:36
the Sexes you still got you know food

26:38
and nothing's changed so I said to her

26:40
you're getting 35 miles to the gallon

26:43
cars used to get 10 15 12 17 20 my Yukon

26:47
out in the garage my old Yukon gets 12

26:50
15 miles to the gallon you can afford a

26:53
price increase in fuel prices if you're

26:55
driving these more affordable uh

26:57
vehicles you don't have you know you

26:59
don't have to buy an electric vehicle to

27:01
get good mileage but

27:03
um what's your prediction on gas prices

27:06
what do you think I think it's a total

27:08
complete bubble I think it is a total

27:12
complete bubble because what you have to

27:14
understand about the oil industry and

27:16
oil trading is it's a Futures business

27:19
it's a Futures business nobody buys oil

27:23
because they want a truckload of oil

27:25
dumped in their backyard if you want to

27:27
get a truckload of gold or a truckload

27:29
of Apple certificates and drop them in

27:31
my backyard I'm happy to have it but

27:33
please don't drop a truckload of oil in

27:36
my backyard right it'll kill the

27:40
grass oil is traded as a Futures Market

27:44
yes so if you would and what are we

27:47
short what you know you see article

27:49
after article about the European onion

27:51
the Europeans are not getting rid of

27:54
Russian oil right their biggest problem

27:57
is Russia might change their mind and

27:59
not be willing to sell it to them

28:01
Finland is finding that out right now

28:04
about natural gas right they have no

28:07
Supply at most at most the USA at most

28:13
is 600,000 barrels a day short assuming

28:16
we actually cut off purchasing

28:19
from um from

28:21
Russia Chevron who's actually in

28:25
Venezuela now with a trading desk could

28:28
double that in a day you could cut

28:32
Chevron purchase order in

28:34
Venezuela and that oil tankers of oil

28:37
could be headed our way and what happens

28:40
Stan is it doesn't need to arrive it

28:44
doesn't need to arrive it just has to be

28:47
announced that that additional oil is on

28:50
the market and then the Futures market

28:53
and the options Market will discount the

28:57
future AR of that oil and you could see

29:00
oil back in the 70 80 and

29:03
90s so what the heck's going on Marty

29:06
what's going on why why isn't this why

29:10
can't we solve it that simply what's

29:12
going on

29:13
because well the president has laid all

29:16
of his cards on the table he's not he's

29:19
going his plan is to cut off his nose to

29:23
spite his face and then to convince

29:28
Europe to do the same now Europe is

29:32
lying to the president there is no way

29:35
Europe is going to get off of cheap

29:37
Russian China's sucking up all the cheap

29:40
Russian oil that they can at a 30 to 40%

29:44
discount China's getting ready presently

29:47
to stimulate their economy by lowering

29:49
interest rates so they're lowering

29:51
interest rates sucking up cheap Russian

29:54
oil everywhere they can get it and their

29:58
GDP will outpace the US's GDP despite

30:01
what Joe Biden said the other day

30:04
because they have the capacity and they

30:05
have the energy to do

30:07
that it's a Futures market and as long

30:10
as the future Market believes that Joe

30:12
Biden is not going to cut a purchase

30:16
order to Venezuela then the Futures

30:18
Market can keep prices this high if he

30:21
would come out because we're I'm looking

30:23
at our portfolios and I said you know

30:25
gwiz we should have put more money into

30:27
energy three months ago but I was in the

30:30
crowd that believed that Russia was

30:31
going to sweep through Ukraine was going

30:33
to be over in two or three weeks and I

30:36
put some money and energy and energy

30:38
immediately went down so I put the money

30:39
back where it was before and we don't

30:42
have enough money and energy right now

30:44
which is to say that we should have

30:45
every penny that we have in energy which

30:47
is an overstatement too because some of

30:49
our annuities variable annuities are

30:52
heavily invested in energy and believe

30:54
it or not they're losing money because

30:57
the only way you really made money in

30:59
energy is if you got in the if you got

31:01
in the rally at the very beginning but

31:03
if you look at it since March energy is

31:06
really Consolidated it's really

31:08
flatlined if you look at it on a chart

31:13
so I'm not sure I I think I may have

31:15
lost my my place there but if you look

31:19
at energy we're talking about gas prices

31:21
and and the fact that if it's gas prices

31:23
are another problem gas prices are a

31:26
Refinery problem right so you had all

31:29
these environmental and social and

31:31
governance issues by Black Rock slamming

31:34
all of the oil companies slamming

31:36
Chevron sh slamming xon and we had huge

31:40
numbers of refineries around the world

31:44
shut down those dirty refineries

31:47
refineries have always been the

31:50
bottleneck always been the bottleneck so

31:53
the so the spread the the crack

31:56
spread between refined products and

31:59
unrefined products that's going that's

32:02
going to increase that's going to

32:03
continue so this is a refiner problem

32:07
not a not a crude oil problem and that

32:09
doesn't get solved overnight because

32:12
does get solved overnight no it's gonna

32:14
be a mess it's going to be lawsuits from

32:15
environmentalists it's going to be

32:18
everything involved politically that you

32:20
can only imagine but you know who's got

32:22
a lot of

32:23
refineries is China China's got a lot of

32:27
refineries they build what one a week

32:29
don't they build one a week they build

32:31
as many as they can and they're sucking

32:33
up at 30 40% discounts cheap crude from

32:38
Russia they're sucking up all the

32:39
Russian crude they can get and the

32:42
United States is walking around not

32:44
sucking up all the cheap you know this

32:46
is one of my pet peeves with Sean

32:48
Hannity Laura Ingram and the money honey

32:51
right go around and everything and and

32:52
we go around and we we say how did China

32:54
steal our econ how did what would the

32:57
hell right does China have to say that

32:59
they want to be number one right

33:01
America's got a god-given right to be

33:03
number one well that's not true either

33:05
because I looked in the Bible and it

33:07
doesn't say that then I looked in the

33:08
economics book and it doesn't say

33:11
that the the deal the deal is that here

33:16
at home we're doing everything that we

33:20
can to be number two right we're we're

33:23
threatening China with war we're

33:26
threatening Russia with War we're not

33:29
sucking up cheap crude oil around the

33:31
world because we have some moral

33:34
compunction against dealing with despots

33:37
although we've been dealing with oil

33:38
despots for how many years a hundred

33:40
years 60 years a thousand years all the

33:43
all oil magnets are

33:46
despots if America wants to be number

33:51
one you need to start acting like China

33:54
you need to start sucking up cheap oil

33:58
you need to stop going around the world

34:01
making War I I was watching something on

34:03
Hannity last or our Carlson last night

34:08
about the U the amount of corruption in

34:12
Ukraine and other than the fact that you

34:14
know babies are freezing and starving

34:17
and people are starving and hungry this

34:20
is a horrible country this is a horrible

34:22
country for the United States to be

34:24
supporting these guys are as evil and

34:26
corrupt as as Russia or or Worse yeah we

34:30
keep sending them money and we send them

34:32
more money than Biden even wants us to

34:34
send them I haven't figured that one out

34:36
yet there's got to be a backstory that

34:38
we're going to find out in the future

34:39
maybe not if the media controls that

34:42
message but it does seem a little

34:44
strange and I think that the United

34:47
States citizens have checked out a

34:48
little bit I mean they got bigger things

34:50
on their plate like their lives well

34:53
they they checked out and it seems

34:55
amoral it seems amoral to not support

34:59
the Poo pitiful people of the Ukraine

35:02
but if you listen to this fella last

35:04
night Todd something something Todd

35:06
whatever his name is uh he he he makes

35:10
the allegation that this $40 billion

35:13
dollar is not going to make its way to

35:15
where American people think this money

35:17
is going this is not going to make its

35:19
way to baby food and baby diapers and

35:22
shelter and all this this is a corrupt

35:25
country this is a totally corrupt

35:27
country country and and billions of

35:29
these dollars are going to make their

35:31
way into zelinsky's pocket this is a

35:33
terrible horrible country th this is a

35:36
horrible you know the idea that there

35:39
were us uh n there were experimental uh

35:43
biological weapons facilities in that

35:45
country I don't doubt that rumor a bit

35:48
you know the the world needs places

35:51
where you can go do evil things and pay

35:54
the bribe so that you can operate there

35:57
that's that's that's the Ukraine uh the

36:00
people may be fine the weather may be

36:03
okay but but but this is a vacuum of a

36:07
country and and and and and if you look

36:10
at our policy versus China's who wants

36:13
to be number one China's policy is to

36:16
just let that thing unravel the way it

36:18
unravels and I don't know why our policy

36:20
should be any different let it unravel

36:22
the way it unravels and uh you know in

36:25
instead of zalinsky buying stinger from

36:27
us now they should have been buying

36:29
Stingers from US 20 years ago let's

36:31
let's pivot a little bit let's pivot

36:33
away you know we this is a uh this

36:36
podcast attracts so many people that are

36:38
retirees pre-retirees been retired for a

36:41
long time thinking about retirement and

36:44
your specialty is is obviously the

36:46
overall markets in general but for the

36:48
person that's watching the markets

36:50
definitely has a percentage of their

36:52
portfolio in stocks ETFs Etc what are

36:56
you telling people in these volatile

36:59
times obviously it's it's always

37:00
volatile to some point but these seem a

37:03
little weird what are you telling people

37:06
here from the standpoint of where

37:07
markets are going and the volatility and

37:10
how to address that as a as a retiree or

37:13
pre retiree about equities we don't

37:16
allow our clients to use the word retire

37:19
unless they have a minimum of $1

37:22
million what what I'm learning as I go

37:25
through this practice is

37:28
most people should never use the word

37:31
retire because they simply don't have

37:33
enough money if you don't

37:36
have you're working I'm working I have

37:39
extra cash coming in every quarter I can

37:42
take advantage of these horrible times

37:44
and buy something that's on

37:47
sale if you don't have extra cash right

37:51
now where you can take advantage of this

37:55
selloff then you're in a miserable able

37:58
place and it's it's really just that

38:01
simple Because unless you either a went

38:03
to entirely cash or annuities even or

38:08
you put all of your money in energy

38:10
you're underwater you're underwater real

38:14
bad and if you're a client with three

38:16
four

38:18
500,000 and you think you're retired

38:21
you're probably going to be headed up to

38:23
the Walmart to see if you can get a

38:25
part-time job up there because

38:28
this has

38:30
been this has been it this has

38:33
been this is different than 2003 2007

38:38
and8 right because people don't under

38:40
we've never had a supply side problem

38:45
like we we've never had a situation

38:48
where you can't buy baby milk where you

38:50
might have brown outs you can't get

38:52
diesel fuel you can't buy a Cadillac

38:54
Escalade you you know where Toyota

38:57
shutting down we've never had a supply

39:00
side stock market crash this is a real

39:05
problem it's simply not going to get

39:09
better until General Motors can produce

39:12
a car it's not going to get better until

39:14
Ford can produce an electric pickup it's

39:17
not going to get better until as you and

39:19
I say apple can produce a computer or

39:22
Dell can produce a computer and deliver

39:24
it next day it's not going to get better

39:27
until people feel like they they can go

39:30
on to Amazon and order something and

39:32
it'll be delivered the next

39:35
day I've never seen a supply side stock

39:40
market crash as we are in now um I want

39:44
to buy more apple right now but I really

39:47
don't know if Apple's going to be able

39:49
to make enough iPhones or enough iPads

39:51
in the next quarter I simply don't know

39:53
what their supply situation is going to

39:55
be so one of the things that I heard

39:58
that makes sense for retirees going

40:01
forward is this somebody said this week

40:04
they saidwell what about this notion of

40:06
long-term Financial Planning and we're

40:08
looking at you know new software now

40:10
we're looking at money guide Pro and you

40:13
know it is really complicated

40:15
software and I looked in money gide Pro

40:17
and I said let me see where it said uh

40:20
you know you do financial planning

40:22
through money guide Pro you run a Monty

40:23
Carlo simulation and all that I said let

40:26
me look in there and see where it says

40:27
that Cadillac's not going to be able to

40:30
make an Escalade let me see where it

40:32
says that there's not going to be any

40:33
baby formula let me look and see where

40:36
it says that the price of Wheat and corn

40:38
is going to double in quadruple let me

40:40
see where it says that there's going to

40:42
be no

40:43
semiconductors and nowhere in money

40:45
guide Pro did it say that nowhere in

40:48
those written Financial plans that

40:49
people have does it say that those are

40:53
those are reasonable risks that you

40:55
should consider so somebody was asked

40:57
what do you think about this idea of

41:00
long-term Financial Planning and the guy

41:02
says you know my my idea of longterm

41:05
financial planning is six months and

41:09
then six months from now we'll do

41:11
another plan and reassess and six months

41:13
from now we'll reassess again and I

41:16
think that's where I land that's that's

41:19
where I

41:20
land retirement planning is six-month

41:23
projects because if you look at where we

41:25
are the beginning June when this

41:28
probably airs versus January 1 exactly

41:31
six months we're in a different world

41:35
than we were six months ago if you own

41:38
stocks six months ago and you held them

41:40
you're in a world of pain but if you're

41:42
just finally getting ready to retire and

41:45
you're separating from your employer and

41:47
you got a nice

41:48
401K well you're in you're in the

41:50
driver's SE you're able to make some

41:53
tremendously opportunistic purchases

41:55
they're going to set you up for a very

41:57
long

41:59
time the problems that we have in this

42:03
case and the retirees need to

42:06
understand is that elections

42:09
matter you you elect stupid people and

42:13
this is what you get you get a series of

42:16
bad decisions that affect your

42:20
retirement that that's been the thesis

42:22
of our radio program since day one this

42:26
we are a money show

42:27
that believes that politics affects your

42:30
money what we're going through now is

42:34
entirely a government created

42:38
catastrophe the FED did not need to

42:40
leave interest rates and I don't care

42:42
which one you're at whether it's Joe

42:44
Biden or Donald Trump Donald Trump's the

42:46
biggest Democrat there ever was Donald

42:48
Trump ran huge deficits Donald Trump

42:52
started all of this PPP and these and

42:55
arguably he had to arguably he had

42:59
to but it didn't end Joe Biden did not

43:02
end it the the

43:05
idea that that you know that this is a

43:09
government created Donald Trump had the

43:13
opportunity to not reappoint J pal and

43:17
decided that he would he he raged

43:20
against J poell

43:22
endlessly but when it came down to the

43:25
time he reappointed J pal and that's why

43:28
we have J pal that's why we have the

43:29
easy monetary policy that we have now

43:32
because Donald Trump reappointed J pal

43:34
and now you got Joe Biden or Barack

43:37
Obama whoever you think's in charge

43:39
reappointed him again and now we have to

43:42
undo that easy money policy so you know

43:46
these elections matter and um you know

43:50
it's a difficult situation no it is for

43:52
retirees it is um I want you to address

43:56
also too you know kind of the equity

43:57
Market which kind of doves tailes into

44:00
the bond market me and you have been

44:02
around a long long time we remember in

44:04
the 90s when the bond markets just fell

44:07
fell the floor fell out from under them

44:09
um and we're seeing similar I think

44:11
bonds are down what 10% since the first

44:14
of the year however you want to track

44:16
that what is your advice for people that

44:19
get that that that napkin 60 40 40 60 50

44:23
50 and the word bond to them means safe

44:28
what do you say to them and and educate

44:30
The Listener on Bonds in general and why

44:34
it's it's a little dangerous here with

44:37
bonds we had a client come in from U our

44:40
office in Vero Beach last week she

44:42
walked in with a million and a half

44:43
dollar

44:44
portfolio 50% of it was entirely in

44:47
bonds the lqd the TLT a variety of ETFs

44:50
with Bonds in it

44:52
$750,000 portfolio she's down $90,000

44:57
and she wants to know what happened I I

44:59
said I I said' darling what part don't

45:02
you understand you know we're we have

45:05
been in a rising interest rate

45:07
environment since at least January

45:11
interest rates rise I said what do you

45:13
think happens to bonds well the answer

45:14
is bond prices

45:17
decline it's it's not a possibility it's

45:19
a fact it's what has to happen and I

45:22
said so just out of curiosity she says

45:25
well what should I do I said well you

45:27
tell me when interest rates are going to

45:29
start to the yields on interest rates

45:31
are going to start to decline and I'll

45:33
tell you when you can buy bonds

45:35
again I tell our clients that unless you

45:38
have Bill Gates kind of money I don't

45:41
have any clients that can live on even

45:44
if you could

45:45
afford the decline in the price the

45:48
share price of the bonds I don't have

45:51
any clients that can live on two or two

45:52
and a half percent interest so what's

45:55
the point right yeah you know I I I I I

45:58
can look at at particularly today I mean

46:01
this client's coming in by the time her

46:03
money gets here we'll have dozens and

46:05
dozens and dozens of great opportunities

46:08
for her um but but you can

46:11
get what is it three and a half%

46:13
dividend on the S&P 500 plus or minus

46:17
all of the growth that you may get and

46:20
even as low as the S&P 500 is is likely

46:22
to come back I mean we came back from

46:25
the 20023 crash we came back from the

46:27
2007 2008 crash we're likely to come

46:31
back from this if you listen to the work

46:33
of Tom Lee who we pay for his research

46:36
Tom Lee will tell you that he believes

46:38
the market and I believe it too has

46:40
already achieved Peak

46:42
inflation right I believe that if I

46:45
believe that if if Don if Joe Biden were

46:48
to cut a purchase order to Venezuela I

46:50
think you could break the back of

46:52
inflation overnight I think the FED

46:54
would not have to raise interest rates I

46:57
think that if you get to the November

47:00
midterms and you get rid of the democrat

47:03
congress you're going to break the back

47:05
of inflation

47:08
um

47:09
quickly if you listen to Tom Lee and I

47:14
believe this and we've said it we said

47:16
it as early as November we think that

47:20
fed is jawboning the market we don't

47:23
think the FED has any interest in

47:25
raising interest rates to the point that

47:27
it caus causes stagflation or recession

47:32
we don't believe the FED has any

47:34
interest in replicating the work of Paul

47:36
vulker back in the 70s during Jimmy

47:38
Carter days but I think they want to

47:41
talk about

47:42
it because every time they talk about it

47:46
you kill the stock market and I and and

47:49
and that causes the businesses to cut

47:54
back on employment to cut back on

47:56
expenses

47:57
and so you're effectively doing the work

47:59
of raising interest rates without

48:02
actually having to raise interest rates

48:05
so we think the FED is closer to being

48:08
done than you think they are um unless

48:12
the supply chain gets much worse

48:14
interesting Are there specific sectors

48:17
or names that that are just hitting you

48:20
in the forehead same opportunity all of

48:23
Tech every bit of tech okay UHD is tra

48:27
at where's AMD right this second AMD is

48:31
uh Snapchat's down 41% and at the time

48:34
of this tap and we're a couple weeks out

48:36
by the way when he's pulling these

48:37
quotes real time a AMD is down to $90

48:41
it's down four and a half% today for no

48:43
reason stock was $12 $103 last week

48:47
right stocks got

48:50
$16 Target on it City group has a $4,100

48:56
Target on Amazon crossing the screen

48:59
down $100 at

49:01
$2,000 you're when you look at Amazon if

49:04
you can hold your nose and look at that

49:06
pig of a

49:08
company because that was among I gotta

49:11
be honest with you if you listen to the

49:13
Amazon conference call three weeks ago

49:16
every one of them should be in jail

49:18
every one of them should be in

49:20
jail because it it it was a horrible

49:23
misleading conference call and every one

49:25
of the directors should be in in jail

49:27
for that for the for the earnings

49:29
because they lied they lied to their

49:32
shareholders

49:34
but City Group says in the case of

49:37
Amazon it's a $2,000 stock that they

49:39
thinks worth

49:41
4,100 they say that at

49:44
2,200 all your you're you're not getting

49:46
credit for any of the retail part of

49:49
that company that that the Amazon web

49:52
services is worth more than $2,100

49:56
by itself if you look at shares of Apple

50:02
um you could just go down the you could

50:04
go down the list what is okay so Tech is

50:07
Tech is the one you're that you see

50:09
opportunity what what's the sectors that

50:11
you're a little wary of right here I

50:14
think oil's in a

50:16
bubble

50:18
um I've never been a big fan of

50:20
healthcare because I never know what

50:23
government

50:24
regulations are going to be placed on

50:26
the SE

50:27
as a

50:28
whole

50:30
um you know you you got one new drug and

50:33
one little thing goes wrong and it and

50:35
it blows up yep

50:38
um the retail sector it's like I told a

50:41
client the other day we were talking

50:42
about Target I said it's the most

50:44
worthless store in the whole world I

50:45
never go to Target they're not good at

50:47
anything they they don't have cheap

50:49
clothes they don't have good computers

50:50
they don't have good toy section they

50:52
don't have a particularly so why would

50:54
anybody go to Target I don't understand

50:56
Target you know so to me it's a you know

51:00
Macy's when I think retail I retail to

51:04
me has changed so much if it's not on

51:06
Amazon I don't even go there you know my

51:10
daughter told me she says you got to go

51:12
look at these new sugar-free cocktail

51:14
mixes I said okay is it on Amazon no I

51:16
said I'm not looking I'm not going there

51:19
you know I'm not opening an account at

51:21
five different stores um but for you

51:25
know

51:27
you know Google Google had an

51:29
interesting comment the other day Google

51:33
said that the number of

51:36
searches related to quote near me you

51:39
know how you put in bakery near me or or

51:43
Clos store near me they say the use of

51:47
the of the phrase near me in Google

51:50
searches has screamed higher and what

51:53
they say that means is the consumer is

51:57
just no longer

51:58
willing to go anywhere they don't want

52:01
to go to Dick Sporting Goods they don't

52:03
want to

52:04
go to the bakery they don't want to go

52:07
to the Cadillac dealer they just want to

52:10
go to whatever's nearest to me they

52:13
simply are not interested in the

52:15
shopping experience right they need some

52:18
they need they need a laptop they need a

52:20
pair of shorts or a pair of Crocs and

52:23
they want to know where the nearest

52:25
place to get it is and they're not going

52:26
to go shopping around a lot so so that

52:30
was a fairly interesting thing you know

52:32
you look at I'm watching Expedia go by

52:35
the whole the whole travel and Leisure

52:37
sector should be up Marriott sold that

52:40
it's for a family of four to go to

52:44
Disney 10 grand 10 grand for a week at

52:47
Disney now um Lindon and I are going for

52:50
our 50th anniversary in July

52:52
congratulations

52:54
$4500 for three days in

52:57
Disney Marriott sold out Cruise Lines

53:00
fleets are full why those stocks cannot

53:04
stay up I do not know booking.com sold

53:09
out um it it's like people simply don't

53:13
have any faith in the Market at

53:17
all

53:19
and it's it's it's interesting we got to

53:21
we got to kind of wind this up Marty and

53:24
and this has been what I knew was going

53:26
to be which was entertaining educational

53:30
informational I told you to put on your

53:32
your uh your seat belt early because he

53:35
is the one of the most talented people

53:39
on air that you'll ever hear he Jim

53:41
Kramer is not even in his league and you

53:44
know he should be a national name and a

53:47
and a new and a perfect world he would

53:50
be and I'm just happy to call him a

53:52
friend and and glad that we have a

53:53
relationship and hope he comes back on

53:55
but but Marty what I do at the very end

53:58
of each of these podcasts is I do what's

54:00
called a mic drop moment and I'm going

54:02
to give I'm going to give you about 30

54:04
seconds to a minute to give some people

54:07
kind of words of wisdom on your way out

54:09
then I'll close us out but um so so

54:13
think for about two seconds you don't

54:14
need much time but Martin parl Martin

54:18
Marty parlat here's your mic drop moment

54:21
for fun with annuities listeners and

54:23
viewers

54:24
go this

54:27
this two shall pass this two shall pass

54:31
you cannot be looking at your

54:34
portfolios at a moment in time and

54:38
panicking you need to be in the right

54:40
sectors you cannot own a bond and think

54:42
it's going to come back because it's not

54:43
going to come back but if you've got

54:46
what most people in America had going

54:49
into this which is a whole lot of tech

54:52
these things will come back this is

54:55
where all the growth in the world is and

54:58
unless America's dead unless we're

55:00
doomed to

55:02
Extinction leave these things alone and

55:06
they will be

55:08
better in a year or six months or or two

55:11
years but these things too shall

55:15
pass and um that's that's and quit

55:19
watching quit watching the TV for God's

55:22
sake man it's just all bad news all the

55:25
time Marty I really appreciate it I

55:27
really appreciate every single person

55:29
that's listening and View and viewing us

55:31
here on the fun with anties YouTube

55:33
channel of course on all major podcast

55:35
platforms thanks for joining fun with

55:37
annuities one of the fastest growing

55:39
podcasts in this financial sector we're

55:41
very happy about that and it happens

55:43
because we have Superstars like Marty on

55:45
so thanks for joining us and I will see

55:47
you next

55:53
week thanks for listening to fun with

55:55
the nudy please hit the Subscribe button

55:57
and make sure to go to my site at theanu

56:01
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56:19
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56:24
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56:26
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56:29
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56:32
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56:34
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56:36
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56:38
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[Music]