Charles Rotblut: What Individual Investors Need To Succeed

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welcome to fun with annuities with your

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host me stan the annuity man america's

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annuity agent can annuities be fun can

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absolutely they can find out the brutal

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facts about annuities with no sales

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pitches or high pressure nonsense just

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the brutal and factual annuity truth

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let's have some fun with annuities and

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[Music]

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welcome to fun with annuities i'm your

0:41
host stan the annuity man america's

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annuity agent license in all 50 states

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um very happy to have a good friend of

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mine from way back in the day but he's

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still out there kicking and doing his

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thing and providing a lot of good

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information

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charles wrote blood from american

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association of individual investors will

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be our guest today but let me tell you a

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little bit about him

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um he's the vice president of aai and

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the editor of their journal it's called

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the aai journal we'll have all of this

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contact information in the aaa iii site

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on our site for you to go to 24 7.

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um he's he's a vice president there and

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a financial analyst and he's the creator

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of what we're going to talk about today

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which is the prism wealth building

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process

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and he's been an editor of their journal

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for just a long time i've written for

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that

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i enjoy reading it

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he's created a ton of stuff for the

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american association of individual

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investors like vmq stocks aai dividend

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investing services

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um he helps manage the stock superstars

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report

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um he's just been all over the place he

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went to university kansas go jayhawks

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and he's probably seen him on cnbc and

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he's you know does keplinger's wall

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street journal panelists

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um he's written a lot of books one of

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his books better good than lucky

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is i really like that because it talks

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about

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um the stock market etc he's worked for

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zach's invest tools he's done a lot as

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you charter he's a chartered financial

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analyst cfa if you don't know what that

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means that means it's really hard to get

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and really really smart people get it

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like charles um but a little bit about

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aai and then we'll jump in it's an

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independent

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nonprofit corporation formed in 1978

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to assist people like you individual

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investors to become effective managers

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of their own assets and how they do that

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is they provide programs of education

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information and research

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i want to welcome all the people on the

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major podcast platforms and the youtube

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channel that says fun with annuities at

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the top of it charles welcome to fun

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with annuities thank you so much for

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being here

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thanks stan it's great to see you and

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great to uh speak with you i know it's

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been a while i've actually set in in his

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offices in chicago you know he's got

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this really swanky office but he's

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earned it man he knows what he's doing

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um let's jump right in i'm very

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fascinated to what you've built

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this prison wealth building process and

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if you want to go to

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aai.com

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you can pull that up we'll get we're

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going to have the link to this

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exact learn and plan strategy tell us a

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little bit about that charles

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sure the origins came for it really came

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from us trying to uh think about what do

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investors need to succeed uh and one of

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the things we thought about was that

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individual investors really need a

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framework a lot of people have big goals

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they want to save for

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but then

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they get distracted by these shiny

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objects they get distracted say right

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now as we record this the news in russia

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they get distracted by their political

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beliefs

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and certainly the headlines day-to-day

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you can turn on any financial news

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outlets regardless of its broadcast if

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it's online and it's always buy this do

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that and there's never really a

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discussion about

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what's your time horizon where are you

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investing for what's your risk tolerance

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and so

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we wanted to give people a framework and

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i realized in creating this some members

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want us to say

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tell me to do a b and c and i'll do it

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but the reality matter is everybody's

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got different goals different levels of

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wealth different levels of cash flow so

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a financial plan is never one size fits

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all device so

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what we did with prism is we really

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create a five-step framework that

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empowers people to invest based on their

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goals so regardless if your goal is

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short-term if it's long-term

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we're going to give you the framework

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and we'll give you suggestions on what

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should go in that framework but we want

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you to actually create your own

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financial plan that's tailored to your

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goals because ultimately for individual

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investors success is having enough money

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to achieve the goals that are important

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to them

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and i think it's important for people to

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understand that yes 95 percent of our

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our listeners are on podcast platforms

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and they're not visualizing what i'm

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looking at but there is a flow chart um

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that he has developed and also what i

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was going to ask you is

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tell us about the academy that goes

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along with this prism wealth building

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process

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because it sounds very good in concept

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how do you take the person from start

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to finish and then after finish managing

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ongoing

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so that's something a new uh initiative

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for us and so we recently developed what

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we call aai community and it's basically

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an online forum for ai members to

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interact online so we're trying to break

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down our geographical boundaries now we

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do have local chapters they're volunteer

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run groups and they're great uh but we

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also want to provide a an additional

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avenue for members to communicate and

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so academy exists in that framework and

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insight academy

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we have a series of videos a series of

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webinars uh each step in the prison

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process has its own worksheet so we for

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instance talk about prioritizing your

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goals

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we give you a sheet to write down your

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goals uh there's one off quote study

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that says if all you do is write down

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your goals your odds of achieving them

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go up by 40

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so we give you all everything you need

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to create your framework but then you

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also have this community where you can

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see what other members are doing if you

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want to discuss what you're doing if you

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have a problem

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our challenge you can actually go in

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there and communicate with other ai

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members so it really is a an interactive

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experience for members to not only go

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through the process but to really learn

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from other members learn from me

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and share their experiences

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under and step number one is

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prioritizing your goals and that's a

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pretty broad brush how do you how do you

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make the person dig a little deeper

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other than just saying i'd like a

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reasonable rate of return

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i mean how do you d how do you get them

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down into the details of reality

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so we ask them to walk through and we

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ask them to consider what are your goals

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how far in the future is it how much do

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you think is going to cost you and also

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how long you think you're going to spend

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on it and then we ask them to prioritize

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them and prioritizing is a really big

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goal because

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you might want to really for instance

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help your kids or your grandkids pay for

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college

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but if you want to avoid eating cat food

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in retirement

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that's got to be your top priority goal

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and you really need to we encourage

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people to really think through it and

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make those hard choices

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it might be really nice to help your

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kids or your grandkids

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perhaps you want to help your

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congregation or a certain charity

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all that's really noble but

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if you can't afford say to fund

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retirement then you need to assess

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what's really important to me and so we

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ask people to really go through this

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thought process what are my key goals

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and maybe your key goal is you know

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hiking mount everest in a so that's

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great

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but realize that requires choices and

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anything you do with money is a

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trade-off if you save you're not

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spending if you're spending then perhaps

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you're sacrificing your future so we

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really ask people to think through that

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and really you know do the best estimate

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of how much will you really need to

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spend and over what time period because

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that really affects a lot of your other

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decisions in terms of what you do with

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your money

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step two of the process is recognizing

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your risk tolerance and allocation

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that's a tough one too um you know and

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you've been doing this for a long long

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time

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people recognizing their risk tolerance

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they might think they're they're less

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risky than they're acting

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right

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yes absolutely

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um and you know it's interesting when we

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did this i looked at a lot of risk

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questionnaires i understand you've seen

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them yourself over the years um and as

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you know a common question these risk

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questionnaires is if the market drops by

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x percent for how will you feel uh and i

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think that's one of the worst possible

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questions they could ask

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and the reason why is there studies

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showing if it's sunny outside if it's

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stormy if you've got enough fight with

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your significant other if there was

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traffic along the way

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all those things

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impact how you react so one of the

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things we ask in there is how have you

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previously reacted uh if you freaked out

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when the market went down in 2020

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because of the chronovirus in 2008

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that's going to play a world but we also

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asked people to consider

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what they're spending relative to their

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wealth um do they have other sources of

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non-portfolio income and matters like

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that so we're really trying to get

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people to think about

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what's their ability financially to

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withstand risk but also

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psychologically so we're asking again

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how they've reacted in the past but also

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i asked them about their knowledge under

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the concept that if you understand

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market history and you see the market in

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a correction then you know that's pretty

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normal volatility

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that's to be expected but if you don't

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have that familiarity you might be more

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willing to panic

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and so the idea is we're really trying

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to get people to assess where they are

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based on what they've done historically

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based on what their financial abilities

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to withstand risk

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and also their knowledge and we give

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them a grid rate really going from have

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a very low tolerance for risk to a very

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high tolerance of risk so we try to

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approach in more of a holistic manner uh

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but using real data when possible to

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help people really decide whether risk

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tolerance is

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because as you said some people

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might believe they have a high tolerance

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for high tolerance for risk in reality

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they don't and other people might feel

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like they can't withstand a lot of

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volatility

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when the reality is from a financial

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standpoint they can actually accept a

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high level

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volatility of portfolios but

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psychologically they may need to dial

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down the exposure to volatile assets

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like stocks

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just to make sure they can stay with

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that allocation over the long term

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right step step number three and again

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for everyone out there we're going to

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have this on our site the prism wealth

10:55
building system that that charles has

10:57
wrote blood has has developed for the

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american association of individual

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investors and i'm going to encourage you

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to consider joining at least utilize

11:05
their site and read read charles

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articles he's a prolific writer and he's

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a very good writer but step three jumped

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out at me charles identifying your

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investment management preferences

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does that mean

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managing yourself or having someone

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manage it for you or a combination of

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the two or am i missing it all together

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that's actually hit just right so it's

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really how's your investments going to

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be managed and we stuck it here

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because i kind of view this as a funnel

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so you have your allocation okay maybe

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i'm aggressive maybe i'm moderate

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but before you fill it you might want to

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think about what preferences do you have

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we have a lot of our members are very

11:44
active stock pickers but you might find

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looking at charts or reading corporate

11:49
earnings reports to be the most boring

11:51
thing you can do

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um or perhaps you're just a big believer

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and you know john bogle where you want

11:56
to purely index right so we want people

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to think about how involved they want to

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be how they want to make decisions but

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then we also prompt people to think

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about what restrictions they have

12:08
a good example is you might be a stock

12:10
picker but if you're investing through a

12:12
401k that does not have a brokerage

12:14
window

12:15
and for listeners who don't know what a

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brokerage window is that's a sign that

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your your 401k probably doesn't have it

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but that means you have to invest in

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mutual funds and that's going to impact

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what investments you select so it really

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is how involved do you want to be

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whether you want to fully make the

12:34
decisions or have someone help you but

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then also are there constraints and then

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maybe you know your ability to invest in

12:40
a 401k uh it might be what a 529 plan is

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limited to but certain professions also

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place restrictions on what their

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employees can invest in so right we want

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people to really think about that

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because if you just go from allocation

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to investments

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you're looking at about 30 000 mutual

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funds in etfs about 5 000 exchanges and

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stocks and

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you know who knows how many thousands of

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bonds are out there and that's not

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touching the whole realm of other

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investments out there so we're trying to

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get you more focused when it comes to

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selecting investments based on your

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preferences and also based what

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restrictions you might face

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you can tell by just listening to

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charles this is a passion this isn't a

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job i mean he has been passionate about

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this since i've known him and that's

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been for decades but i'm looking at the

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steps and i look at step number one

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prioritizing your goals and then step

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number two

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recognizing your risk tolerance and

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allocation step number three identifying

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your investment management preferences

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to me those are three big ones and i

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think if you get past those three

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number four which is selecting your and

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managing your investments

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is a little bit easier than one two and

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three am i missing something

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no and that's the whole point we want to

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narrow it down and i kind of quit if

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you're going to haystack you're trying

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to find a needle you'll be there forever

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but if you can take that big haystack

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and maybe put it down to maybe a small

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you know barrel of hair maybe just a

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little bit of hay scare on the floor

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it's going to be a lot easier to find

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that needle so

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you know say for instance your

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allocation calls for investing in small

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cap stocks

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well if you know that's what you want

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then when you get to the allocation

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decision and you know you're going to

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actually look for stocks specific stocks

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you can tune out bearings you can tune

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out cnbc

14:22
all these things and go right to it say

14:24
a stock screen that's going to find you

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this small cap stock so it's really

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narrowing it down but also we need to

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selecting process this is when we start

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getting into your rules and perhaps you

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have a preference for value

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perhaps you prefer growth or maybe use

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technical analysis you can then start

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overlaying that but those decisions

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really come from your allocation needs

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and then what your preferences are

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and even when it comes to selecting

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investments if you have a bent towards

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growth or value

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you know whether you're looking at

14:54
mutual funds whether you're looking at

14:56
stocks or etfs or say closed in funds

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you already know how those decisions

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made before you actually start looking

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for an investment so you've really

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narrowed down that vast universe

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and i think it adds clarity because you

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know specifically what you're trying to

15:11
find uh versus nothing against cnbc

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cnbc's a fine channel but sure you're

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getting a shotgun approach of an

15:18
investment advice mean by whoever's on

15:20
it on a certain hour

15:22
and your goal really is as investors to

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have this this funnel approach so when

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you're selecting investments you're

15:28
really you know looking at a very narrow

15:30
scope almost with blinders on to fill

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that precise need you need for your

15:35
portfolio regardless of what type of

15:37
asset it is

15:40
so step number four you just talked

15:41
about that selecting and managing your

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investments whether you're doing that on

15:44
your own you have someone helping you

15:45
etc and you're hopefully a member of aai

15:48
and help and using their resources as

15:50
well number five is monitoring your

15:52
allocation which is always you know

15:54
always tough for a lot of people and

15:56
then and then just looking at the

15:58
progress of that and then your life

16:00
stages can you go through those three

16:02
things monitoring your allocation the

16:04
progress of that and then your life

16:05
stages

16:07
yeah so we went through three things on

16:08
this and i'll try to narrow it down so

16:10
allocation is basically is your

16:12
portfolio reasonably close to your

16:15
target allocation so if you think

16:16
allocation is important uh you

16:18
periodically want to adjust it

16:21
i'm a big believer in rebalancing which

16:22
is just periodically rebalancing back to

16:24
your portfolio

16:26
um and you can certainly do it by

16:28
adjusting your portfolio

16:29
changing your contributions where

16:31
they're directed to and withdrawals but

16:33
the idea is just and once a year look at

16:35
your portfolio and

16:37
to use a very simple example say you're

16:39
using that traditional allocation of 60

16:43
stocks 40 bonds uh if you look at your

16:46
portfolio and suddenly it's 70 stocks

16:49
30 bonds well your allocation has

16:52
changed so you want to take actions to

16:54
bring it back to that level uh when you

16:56
get to our life stages we want people to

16:58
really think about what could cause them

17:01
to revise their goals um and it could be

17:04
something big you're retired uh you know

17:07
unfortunately maybe you get divorced

17:09
some big life stage change like that

17:12
or maybe it's something smaller perhaps

17:14
you know you have a new child or a

17:16
grandchild

17:17
that might cause you to reassess your

17:19
goals so

17:20
as a simple example say you're younger

17:23
um you have one child and one of your

17:25
primary goals is to help pay for cause

17:26
for that child

17:28
all of a sudden child two comes along

17:31
you'd want to help that child with

17:32
college expenses as well

17:34
that changes your goals which goes

17:37
makes you go through the whole process

17:38
again how does it alter my other

17:41
decisions so we want you to think

17:42
through that

17:44
and we actually create a pretty

17:45
comprehensive checklist of just little

17:47
things to look through um you know

17:49
because it can you know change your

17:50
family status say

17:52
you know your kids one of your kids got

17:54
divorced well that might mean you need

17:56
to revisit all your beneficiary

17:58
information or perhaps even your state

18:01
documents so a simple checklist and

18:03
most years people go through that no no

18:05
no no no

18:07
but one time there's something on it

18:08
says yes it can be a reminder that hey i

18:11
need to go back and either look at my

18:14
financial goals uh perhaps my documents

18:17
uh perhaps how have my accounts or my

18:20
insurance policies titled

18:22
and those simple things even though it's

18:24
a very simple concept those are big

18:26
things in terms of your lifetime goals

18:28
and how you want your finances to

18:30
ultimately be managed and passed along

18:33
and then finally progress is simply

18:36
helping you decide are you on track to

18:38
reach your goals and if you're ahead of

18:40
schedule great everything's good but if

18:42
you're behind schedule uh then that can

18:44
prompt you to look at your goals is it

18:46
still realistic

18:48
uh do you need to push it back or

18:50
perhaps you need to take actions now

18:52
perhaps save more or be a little bit

18:54
more aggressive

18:55
with your portfolio so we view this as

18:58
really an ongoing living document not

19:00
that i did this and i'm done

19:02
we want prison process once you create

19:05
your own wealth building plan we want to

19:07
evolve with your life so as your life

19:09
changes

19:10
your goals will change and so should

19:12
your investing process it's never i've

19:14
done it once and that's it the idea is

19:17
to give you something you can continue

19:18
using throughout your life

19:20
what i like about it is you don't have

19:22
to reinvent the wheel the wheel's

19:23
already here okay

19:25
the prism weld building process you

19:27
don't have to start from zero

19:29
charles and his staff has done a great

19:30
job and this isn't the only thing they

19:32
have if you go to their site

19:34
aai.com i'll have it on my site i mean

19:37
they have investor classrooms they have

19:39
they have commentary on retirement tax

19:41
strategies asset allocation they have in

19:44
addition to this prism wealth building

19:46
academy they have a wealth building

19:48
process tool box that goes in

19:51
conjunction with that and they also have

19:53
model portfolios investing ideas they do

19:56
they do everything i i laugh sometimes

19:58
charles because i see some young bucks

20:00
out there that'll come up with some app

20:01
on a phone that says hey this is this is

20:04
what you need to look at for retirement

20:06
and to learn about retirement i'm

20:07
thinking wait a minute

20:09
aai was the original people that did

20:11
that still doing that still doing that

20:13
very well

20:14
um and everyone's just kind of copying

20:16
what you're doing what i applaud you on

20:18
is still being innovative innovative and

20:21
coming up with things which i'm assuming

20:24
is a direct reflection of your

20:25
interaction with your members

20:27
and what they're looking for especially

20:30
with with 10 000 baby boomers plus

20:32
hitting age 65 every single day that's a

20:35
demographic tidal wave to me and you

20:37
how has aai adjusted to that demographic

20:41
tidal wave

20:43
um is this just step one of what you

20:45
guys are working on what's the what's

20:47
the future look like for aai

20:50
yeah we're always thinking about what

20:51
problems do individual investors have

20:53
that we can help solve and so we're

20:55
constantly looking at that um we're

20:57
constantly inventing new tools we came

20:59
up with a my portfolio tool which allows

21:02
members to track their investments

21:04
we've enhanced what we offer in mutual

21:06
funds and stock screens uh we're doing

21:09
webinars uh

21:10
regularly as well um prison but we're

21:13
also looking at things we haven't met in

21:15
holes for instance uh you know we'll be

21:17
looking at a retirement uh boosting you

21:19
know what we have in retirement and

21:21
really trying to combine that

21:22
information into a single source

21:24
uh but you are always thinking about

21:26
what challenges people have and what are

21:27
people not thinking about uh for our

21:30
april ai journal i wrote an article

21:32
simply it's tentative title right now's

21:34
11 key retirement dates

21:37
and you know it just came up from the

21:39
simple fact that you know you and i have

21:40
spent many years in the industry but

21:43
for a lot of people you don't realize

21:45
that you know at age before they reach

21:46
65 and you fall from medicare they don't

21:49
realize that you know if i don't claim

21:50
social security at age 62 i can

21:53
have more money in retirement by

21:54
delaying uh those little things are very

21:57
simple dates but if you don't realize

22:00
when they are it's very easy to get hung

22:02
up and really cost yourself uh you know

22:05
money a lot of times and so we're we're

22:08
constantly trying to think of those

22:09
challenges to some of this pit hole pit

22:12
holes that people can fall into uh and

22:14
really just trying to think about what

22:16
challenges do investors have and what

22:17
how can we how can we solve them

22:21
i laughed out loud as one of your

22:24
columns came across my desk i think it

22:26
was i forgot it might have been early

22:28
this this this month

22:30
and it was the title of the of it was

22:32
where are robin hood customers yachts

22:37
that's like okay

22:38
that's pretty funny can you give a

22:40
snapshot of some i mean you

22:42
i mean you are a very smart person and i

22:44
really love reading your stuff but you

22:46
do have a dry sense of humor that is fun

22:47
to read can you tell people where you

22:49
were headed with that with that title to

22:52
kind of tease them to go read your stuff

22:54
yeah absolutely so there's a book

22:55
written um i guess 1947 by fred schrute

22:58
which is called where the customer's

23:00
yachts and right

23:01
worked in the financial industry um and

23:04
he just really went out the whole

23:05
industry saying how they're basically

23:07
enriching themselves

23:08
uh on the backs of investors and so it

23:10
was a play on that but when you look at

23:12
robin hood we had this whole meme stop

23:14
craze

23:16
uh i got curious and i opened a robin

23:18
hood account and uh i think right now my

23:20
balance might be a hundred dollars in

23:21
there i just wanted to see what it was

23:23
like uh but for me to get approved for

23:26
margin for me to get approved for

23:27
options was

23:29
too simple

23:30
um you know and they didn't know who i

23:32
was it was just very easy to do it and i

23:35
do think you know the idea of no

23:37
commission trading is very beneficial

23:40
especially if you're contributing small

23:42
amounts to an ira or to roth ira

23:45
the problem is when you gamify it such

23:48
as robin hood and then you obviously

23:50
throw in things like reddit it's very

23:52
easy

23:53
to lose a lot of money uh and the

23:56
problem with when you look at robin hood

23:58
is they will literally make most of

24:00
their money from trading and

24:01
particularly options trading and anyone

24:04
can go to the sec documents for robin

24:06
hood and see these numbers

24:08
the more you trade the more profitable

24:10
it is for robinhood

24:12
but this is the case where what's good

24:14
for robinhood isn't necessarily good for

24:16
you and honestly if you really want to

24:19
just take full advantage of robin hood

24:21
go in there

24:22
hi a very low cost etf

24:25
and don't do anything else you'll

24:28
actually be a cost to them and really

24:30
any other broker i'm sitting at robin

24:32
hood here but

24:34
the whole industry is really based on

24:36
getting you to trade more and getting

24:37
you to use more services and some

24:39
services are worthwhile

24:41
a financial planner advisor that keeps

24:43
you on track is worth their weight in

24:46
gold

24:47
but there's a lot of services just

24:48
really designed to get you to trade more

24:50
often and be more active

24:52
and there's a lot of studies out there

24:54
showing that the more active you are the

24:56
lower your returns are going to be

24:59
and i know there's going to be some

25:00
traders sticking their hand ups going

25:02
well i'm really successful

25:03
and i would just say

25:05
you're the exception not the rule

25:08
no i agree with that and it's uh you

25:10
know don't confuse a bull market with

25:11
genius as i always tell people um one of

25:14
the things i really like about what you

25:16
do is you you lay it on the line i mean

25:17
there's there's some

25:19
there's some

25:21
membership kudos that you get and

25:23
benefits but one of them are these these

25:25
um model portfolios that you guys put

25:27
out you put out

25:28
some of the great i really like seeing

25:30
what what's out there the dividend

25:32
investing portfolio you have a stock

25:34
stupid superstars poor report

25:37
multiple versions of that

25:39
you have a value uh portfolio i mean you

25:42
you have model portfolios that people

25:44
can look and they can read the report

25:46
they can see the portfolio

25:48
this isn't just pie in the sky 30 000

25:50
foot view this is charles in an in a

25:53
fighter pilot

25:54
mode of showing you what they're doing

25:57
based upon how they do it

26:00
in the research that's involved to

26:02
implement these model portfolios can you

26:04
talk a little bit about

26:06
if if someone signs up to be a member

26:08
and gets access to the site

26:10
and they can join for as

26:12
little as two dollars come on now

26:15
um tell us about the model portfolios

26:18
yeah so it started with our model shadow

26:20
stock portfolio and this was started by

26:22
our founder jim cloonan um and he

26:24
started i want to say in 1993 and the

26:26
idea was the research at that time uh

26:29
really came from fama in french and for

26:31
those of you who are not familiar with

26:32
them it's eugene fama and ken french and

26:35
it's a quick aside if you just type in

26:37
google ken french database you're going

26:39
to find absolute ton of information

26:42
about stock returns and what

26:44
characteristics have worked

26:46
it's completely free your only cost is

26:48
you need to know how to use excel but

26:50
there's a ton of data on his website

26:53
right

26:54
but what jim took a literally considered

26:56
three things a where do individual

26:58
investors have an advantage and b what

27:00
is a research show and what he figured

27:02
out was that if you look in the smallest

27:05
capitalization stocks these are stocks

27:07
are really operating the shadows on wall

27:09
street

27:10
and you go for a small small size and

27:13
deep value approach

27:15
and you just follow buy and hold

27:16
strategy for that you're going to do

27:18
well over the long term

27:20
and that portfolio

27:22
has been the s p 500 by several

27:24
percentage points over the long term and

27:27
changes are made just once every three

27:29
months

27:30
so that was our original mod portfolio

27:33
our stock superstars report that started

27:35
in the early 2000s and that diversifies

27:38
not only by size and by industry but

27:40
also by investing style

27:42
so we incorporate value we incorporate

27:44
momentum uh growth at a reasonable price

27:47
so the idea is you're diversifying

27:50
every which way not just by size and

27:51
industry but also by investing style

27:54
uh we have a dividend investing

27:56
portfolio that's run by my colleague

27:58
derek hageman

27:59
that looks for stocks with growing

28:02
dividends and we follow a value

28:04
investing approach to that

28:06
uh our most recent one is our vmq stocks

28:08
and vmq stands for value momentum

28:11
quality and it's a factor based approach

28:13
it's really looking at what

28:15
characteristics

28:16
have been associated with really

28:17
long-term

28:19
uh advantages in terms of higher

28:20
long-term returns for stocks and when

28:22
you combine value momentum together they

28:25
pair really well because they're just

28:27
completely different values what's cheap

28:30
momentous was doing well and i like this

28:32
i like to say it actually gives you a

28:34
glimpse on market efficiency because it

28:36
tells you

28:37
what might be undervalued but what other

28:39
people are also recognizing that stock

28:41
as being undervalued

28:43
and then we use quality just because we

28:45
want to get the junkiest stocks out of

28:47
the way sure

28:49
no i i i love it and there's more so

28:51
much more to it one of the things i i

28:53
really like about aai when i say that is

28:56
apple apple investing investing aaii.com

29:01
um they also have you know they have

29:02
stock screening

29:04
um

29:05
opportunities where you can do that but

29:08
to me it's it's aai as a community and

29:12
it's and it's people that

29:14
are like thinkers and they're they're

29:16
analytical and they like to do their own

29:18
research

29:19
they're smart enough to make their own

29:20
decisions but yet they want to have the

29:22
best tools in front of them but the

29:25
community part helps because

29:27
at the core of of your association there

29:31
is about education and that could

29:33
involve that can involved

29:35
you know a an in-person event or an

29:37
online event or one of these programs

29:40
that they can go do 24 7 365 i think

29:43
it's one of the best

29:45
websites you're going to find to dig in

29:48
and not get lost in a candlestick chart

29:50
if you know what i mean um it's it's

29:52
it's

29:53
the investing ideas that they have

29:55
they'll break it down to stock ideas or

29:58
dividend investing ideas or mutual fund

30:00
ideas or bond ideas or mute i mean or

30:03
etf ideas they they they get

30:06
that detailed and even in the education

30:09
side it can go to as

30:11
as basic as beginner's

30:13
guide to stock investing

30:15
to

30:16
as deep in the weeds as your brain can

30:19
take you

30:20
um i applaud you for that from the from

30:22
the website stuff you know and i've

30:24
known you for a long time where you know

30:26
a lot of the stuff was uh done at shows

30:29
and things like that but your website is

30:31
really beefed up what's what's the

30:33
future for where you guys are headed for

30:35
the website

30:36
and we're going to maintain it um we're

30:38
obviously always paying attention to

30:40
trends and so we're always we're keeping

30:42
you know trying to make it better and

30:43
better on mobile devices

30:45
because we know people are using their

30:46
phones we know people are using

30:48
uh

30:49
their their tablets but we're also

30:50
looking you know what can we enhance how

30:52
can we improve the usability of the

30:54
website uh what content can we add uh

30:57
and we're very blessed to have a very

30:59
talented marketing team

31:01
that always has some good ideas and a

31:02
good eye for uh web design um our our

31:06
art director is great with colors and

31:08
design and we have talented directors

31:10
but we are it really comes down to uh we

31:12
always consider how investors engaging

31:14
with information uh but also again just

31:17
back to that concept that what problems

31:19
do they have that we can solve and how

31:21
can we make the investing process clear

31:23
for them uh easier and just really

31:26
better empower them to make smart

31:28
decisions for their own portfolios

31:31
charles the last couple years have been

31:33
could be categorized in probably the

31:35
next couple of years as black swan

31:37
events for sure

31:39
you've seen a lot you've seen you've

31:41
been through market cycles you've been

31:42
through market ups and downs

31:44
this isn't your first rodeo

31:46
what's different in your mind or is

31:48
there anything different from these

31:50
black swan events i'm assuming we're

31:52
talking about covid

31:54
and um the

31:55
encroachment of countries onto other

31:57
countries named the country right um

32:00
how are you approaching that from

32:03
your process and what you're telling the

32:06
people that follow you

32:08
yeah we're trying to tell people just to

32:09
keep focusing your goals and invest long

32:11
term and i realize that can be really

32:13
tough to do um and it's you know it's

32:16
easy to forget that a lot of things have

32:18
happened in some form before obviously

32:20
uh we had the spanish flu following

32:22
world war one uh

32:25
yesterday i was talking to my mom she's

32:26
a holocaust survivor and she was saying

32:28
you know i'm watching what happened in

32:30
ukraine um and it just reminds me of

32:32
what i saw in france in 1940 in 1941

32:35
where people were lining up trying to

32:37
get out of the country right and so

32:39
these things do repeat and although

32:42
history doesn't repeat exactly uh we do

32:45
have see it rhyme often and

32:48
could there be something down the line

32:49
that's happened that we've never seen

32:50
before absolutely uh but

32:53
you can't stay up all night worrying

32:55
about things i mean we can't rule out

32:57
the possibility in one year uh we'll get

33:00
massive hurricanes on the east coast

33:02
massive

33:04
earthquakes on the west coast and a

33:05
solar flare knocking out power across a

33:07
good part of the world in the same year

33:09
right

33:10
that is within a realm of possibilities

33:12
is it a black swan event

33:14
sure it is but

33:16
it doesn't mean it can't happen um and i

33:19
think if you're always reacting to

33:20
what's happening right now

33:22
you're going to lose sight of what can

33:24
happen in the future

33:25
one of my favorite investing quotes

33:28
comes from james mattier

33:30
at the investment from gmo and he once

33:32
said

33:33
that if you don't know what's going to

33:35
happen

33:36
don't structure your portfolio as though

33:38
you do and i think that applies really

33:40
well to a lot of situations go back two

33:42
years ago or three years ago uh no one

33:45
was talking about the chronovirus

33:46
pandemic no one's talking about stimulus

33:48
checks on and even a year ago no one was

33:51
really saying hey we're going to have

33:52
russia invade ukraine and you're going

33:55
to be paying five dollars a gallon for

33:56
gas

33:59
and so when you look at these forecasts

34:00
these people are so sure something's

34:02
going to happen

34:03
you want to discount it because they're

34:05
crystal ball is cracked there's there's

34:07
no doubt but i i do call what you do

34:09
steady steady during the storm and you

34:12
always have been there i've you know

34:13
i've followed you and you was around in

34:16
the 2008's and

34:17
and you know how you handled that you're

34:19
handling it similar there's been a

34:20
couple of things that um i know that my

34:23
listeners and viewers want to hear your

34:24
in your insight first of all is this

34:27
this inflation gorilla

34:29
that's out there and now rush has thrown

34:31
a little gas on the fire no pun intended

34:34
um

34:35
what's your take on this that's a broad

34:37
that's a broad question to a broad

34:40
category and a broad subject what what

34:42
are you feeling your gut feel on

34:44
where we are with inflation and what the

34:46
future holds well two things one i'm

34:49
glad i'm not jerome powell oh

34:52
my gosh

34:53
oh i'm telling you if he doesn't drink

34:55
he might start right exactly uh but you

34:58
know it's it's interesting because when

35:00
you look at corporate earnings reports a

35:02
lot of people will expect a lot of

35:03
companies expect to supply this [ __ ] the

35:06
supply chain issues to ease as we go as

35:08
your progressives i'm not saying

35:11
anyone's saying it's going to end this

35:12
year a lot of people are saying it's

35:13
going to take until 2023 in some case

35:15
2024

35:16
but i think that should alleviate some

35:18
of the pressure uh we do have economic

35:21
growth and obviously people are

35:22
continuing to spend uh but i think the

35:25
wild card is really russian ukraine and

35:27
what happens and you know as we talk

35:30
there's debate about you know what types

35:32
of sanctions are going to be placed on

35:34
russian oil uh but yeah i think it also

35:36
it all really depends on

35:39
you know do we get to a state where it's

35:40
a standoff where the sanctions just hold

35:42
as is and we adapt to those our god

35:45
forbid things escalate uh that's hard to

35:48
say but i think on our side we are

35:50
seeing some of this really be supplying

35:52
chain issues where we had a huge rise in

35:56
demand um as we all know from economics

35:58
101 supply and demand that mix

36:02
i do think those things are going to

36:04
ease but it's going to take some time

36:06
but you know obviously the fed is

36:08
raising rates are expected to raise

36:10
rates we do have economic growth and the

36:13
economy should be able to withstand uh

36:15
raising rates uh

36:17
but again uh rising energy prices in the

36:20
past have caused economic slowdowns

36:23
i think the last time we saw you know

36:25
oil prices above 100 was right before we

36:28
had the financial crisis

36:30
uh so i was a little bit worried about

36:32
what sustained high oil prices might do

36:35
but yeah i can't see a path to inflation

36:38
coming down from where we're at right

36:39
now uh but you know with that wild part

36:42
of russia

36:43
still being out there russia and china i

36:46
think i think going into the midterms

36:48
that's always that's always weird you

36:50
have the midterms you have russia you

36:52
have ukraine you have china you have

36:53
north korea being north korea yes and

36:56
then you have company countries like

36:58
india that are kind of abstaining from

37:00
the whole thing it's been interesting to

37:01
watch obviously we're in a global

37:03
marketplace and me and you can both

37:04
remember when it kind of wasn't that

37:06
back in the day but it is certainly now

37:09
everything interconnected and we're

37:10
going to learn a lot about russian wheat

37:12
here coming up um that we didn't know

37:15
about

37:16
but uh um

37:18
i always ask my guests my celebrity

37:20
guests like you about this next topic

37:22
because it's new

37:24
um not that you have all the answers and

37:26
no one has all the answers because no

37:28
one understands dutch tulip bulbs and

37:30
what i'm talking about is crypto some

37:32
people call it cryptocurrency some

37:34
people say it's not a currency what say

37:36
you charles wrote blood

37:39
you know i i think until you can walk

37:40
into a grocery store and buy goods and

37:42
services i don't think it's a currency

37:44
um it's just a simple

37:46
donation uh you know simple definition

37:48
but i think it holds up really well

37:50
most of people holding crypto are really

37:52
doing it because of speculative assets

37:54
and they think it's going to rise in

37:55
price

37:57
you know it's

37:58
there's parts of the crypto world that

38:01
actually have appeal and can have some

38:02
long-term likes particularly the idea of

38:04
secure networks sure although the

38:06
blockchain technology is legitimate

38:08
absolutely yes all does about the sale

38:11
though we know it's not quite secure as

38:13
some proponents want to make it out to

38:15
be as we've seen with something we're

38:16
learning aren't we we're learning some

38:18
things with what just happened in um

38:20
canada and what's happening right now

38:23
with russia

38:24
uh we're gonna find out how private it

38:26
really is huh yes yes

38:29
you know and i also look at this too and

38:32
you know i think from the uh from nfts i

38:34
kind of look at those like comic books

38:36
or baseball cards or watches or you know

38:39
where you have these collar beanie

38:40
babies where you have these collectibles

38:42
let me interrupt you real quick nfts for

38:43
everyone out there is a non-fungible

38:45
token is what it's called that's what

38:47
nft stands for i would encourage you

38:49
just to google it

38:50
but i'm going to let you finish that

38:52
thought but someone said the other day

38:53
that non-funds told me that non-fungible

38:55
tokens

38:56
is a way for people to force you to use

38:59
crypto

39:01
i thought that was a unique take on it

39:03
but you know there's a lot of new stuff

39:05
out there

39:06
charles and i think how do you i guess

39:08
finish your point on crypto and then and

39:10
then answer the question how to how are

39:12
you answering your uh your followers

39:14
about krypto

39:16
yeah so this is about not about nft so i

39:18
do think you know the when you attach

39:20
them to the collectible and you know

39:21
someone paid an obnoxious amount of

39:23
money for uh basically artwork that was

39:25
for free on instagram right i i think

39:27
that's just trendy and that'll go down

39:29
but the idea that you can actually use

39:31
this token to assign ownership to

39:33
something that has some interest because

39:35
you can obviously if that develops you

39:37
can see using it for contracts

39:39
perhaps transfer of ownership uh

39:42
property rights there's some parts to

39:44
this actually do have some links to it

39:47
and and even the idea of digital

39:49
currency i think as it evolves uh you

39:51
know right now you and i use a credit

39:53
card there's fees involved there's

39:55
delays and payments for the merchants uh

39:58
there's areas of blockchain

40:00
where it could actually have some

40:02
future applications are very legitimate

40:05
but

40:06
any time we see these huge technical you

40:08
know innovations there's always a lot of

40:10
companies at the start

40:12
that go away and i'm sure very few

40:15
people remember some of the uh you know

40:17
early search engines such as northern

40:18
lights or

40:20
the initial web browsers uh that no one

40:22
can name anymore

40:24
because things evolved google was not

40:26
the first company to come along the

40:28
internet world

40:29
but it ended up being one of the biggest

40:31
well and me and you went through the dot

40:33
com era of when we saw companies that

40:35
weren't actually companies and had no

40:37
earnings that had no balance sheet go

40:38
from 15 to 75 in one day and me and you

40:41
that were probably grew up in the

40:42
benjamin graham fundamental analysis

40:44
stage and we read that book went wait a

40:46
minute what

40:47
what just happened um do you look at

40:50
crypto as an asset class or just a

40:51
speculative managed futures type thing

40:54
i think it's purely speculative right

40:56
now um we have actually run some

40:58
articles on it i actually reached out to

41:00
the uh the editor of forbes krypto

41:02
newsletter and he wrote a great piece

41:04
explain the whole crypto market so we're

41:06
trying to explain to our members what it

41:08
is so at least they understand what

41:09
they're looking at uh but right now i

41:11
think it's purely speculative and you

41:13
know if someone wants to just you know

41:15
they think it might have some money it

41:16
might have some value in the future and

41:18
they have some money they're willing to

41:19
to risk all of it on you know that's

41:22
fine um i like to joke but it is true

41:24
all my bitcoin it was for free um i

41:27
think that mill had a promotion they

41:28
gave me like 40

41:30
and i think you know coinbase in the

41:31
super bowl they gave everyone 15 so

41:34
uh that that's the extent of my bitcoin

41:37
uh but you know someone really thinks it

41:38
might have a future and you're willing

41:40
to purely speculate sure then go ahead

41:44
but if it's money you absolutely need

41:47
i would stick with you know more

41:48
traditional assets and not take a risk

41:50
on something that's so new uh that

41:52
really has value because people are

41:54
assigning value to it not that there's

41:56
anything economically

41:58
backing it right now and of course we're

42:00
probably tragically wrong and we'll be

42:02
on a 40-year loop but like 40 years from

42:04
now they'll like listen to these two

42:06
guys talk about krypto

42:08
i'm going out on the record right now

42:10
that the fact that i don't know anything

42:11
about it i always tell people if i can't

42:13
explain it to a nine-year-old then i'm

42:15
not buying it and so

42:17
that means i miss out on a lot charles

42:19
but it also means that i understand

42:21
what i what i own kind of like you're

42:24
you know you guys

42:25
you guys remind your if if warren

42:26
buffett ran an organization it would be

42:29
yours because it's kind of that same

42:32
plotting

42:34
very very just pragmatic approach which

42:37
you need to do

42:38
when investing okay and um i always tell

42:41
people annuities aren't investments or

42:43
contracts we're talking about

42:44
investments with charles we're talking

42:46
about model portfolios and stock

42:47
screening

42:48
we're talking about putting the process

42:50
in place you know with this prism wealth

42:52
building process that can get you on

42:54
track and keep you on track and as i

42:56
always like to say stay in your lane

42:58
stay in your lane don't get out of your

43:01
lane

43:02
stay in your lane even though that that

43:04
uh that turn off looks good to go get

43:06
that burger and fry stay in your lane

43:08
right so absolutely

43:10
i know it's a i know that you don't have

43:12
a crystal ball and if you did you

43:13
wouldn't tell anybody um

43:17
are you bullish on on on the markets

43:19
here

43:20
because of all the cash on the sidelines

43:22
are you bullish because of earnings are

43:24
you bullish because we're coming out of

43:25
a

43:26
covet are you just a total bear right

43:28
here are you right in the middle which

43:30
one no i'm actually so optimistic i mean

43:32
probably our sentiment survey we every

43:34
week we survey our members and we ask

43:36
them really three simple questions um so

43:39
one simple question with three simple

43:41
answers over the next six months i

43:42
expect stocks to be up bullish

43:45
flat neutral or down bearish um and what

43:48
we've seen over time is when

43:50
bullish sediment not pessimism bullish

43:52
sediment gets too high

43:54
we tend to see s p 500 underperform not

43:57
go down because over most periods the s

44:00
p 500 rises

44:02
but when bull assignment is unusually

44:04
low meaning well below its average then

44:06
we see the markets tend to do well over

44:08
the next six to 12 months and that's

44:10
actually

44:12
been unusually low in the past few weeks

44:14
so that uh particularly when we look at

44:16
february

44:17
and so that's a very optimistic sign but

44:20
i do think over the short term we'll

44:22
obviously have to see what happens with

44:24
russia um we'll have to see what happens

44:26
with oil and i think but i do expect

44:28
once we get through some of these

44:29
short-term issues uh you know i think we

44:32
are looking at a period of continued

44:33
economic growth

44:36
not to say it's going to be smooth but

44:37
over the long term i'm optimistic on

44:39
stocks simply because the historical

44:42
odds say over the long run stocks rise

44:44
in value sure

44:46
i also have a feeling i mean i tell

44:48
people this all the time i'm i'm a very

44:50
patriotic person

44:52
um you know if i was if the united

44:54
states was in ukraine's position right

44:56
now if anyone ever came on our soil i

44:59
pity those people because you see some

45:00
fighting you've never seen before

45:02
people would and i defend i defend

45:05
you know both parties i defend

45:07
everything i defend the country

45:09
um but i also think that when there's

45:11
really weird times whether it be covid

45:14
um or the times we're in now

45:16
this country seems to get better during

45:18
adversity and i think that's what you

45:21
kind of said which was stocks are going

45:23
to be okay we're going to figure it out

45:25
we're going to become more efficient

45:26
we're going to be better do you agree

45:28
with that

45:30
no i do and i think right now you

45:31
obviously see more and more electric

45:33
cars come out there but that's you know

45:34
you look at the long-term trends i think

45:36
when we look at energy efficiency um and

45:38
i've long said privately that we can get

45:41
grip on just handling waste better um

45:43
and you know people talk about pollution

45:45
and global climate but sure any time you

45:48
throw out something anytime you expect

45:50
something to air that's an asset you're

45:51
not fully using um so you know i think

45:54
that but i think you also just look you

45:56
mentioned cova look at the medical

45:59
side i mean we got those coded vaccines

46:01
out really quickly but it was based on

46:03
existing technologies so yes

46:06
i'm not a biochemist i'm not i don't

46:08
have a background in medicine but

46:10
you do you do one or you think a step

46:12
back if they're learning something from

46:14
the ability to produce you know those

46:16
coveted vaccinations so quickly have

46:17
they figured out some of the rna

46:18
technology or just vaccine development

46:21
that might set them down a new path in

46:23
terms of medicine and that obviously can

46:26
have some huge

46:27
payoffs down the line as well and let's

46:29
all hope that it does lead them down on

46:31
your path to a safe and highly effective

46:33
new medicines i don't think we'll ever

46:36
be blindsided like we were this country

46:38
learns

46:39
uh and i will guarantee you that the the

46:42
health stocks and the bio tech people

46:45
are skating where the puck is going to

46:47
be not behind it

46:49
but let me uh let me take a second and

46:51
talk a little bit more about the

46:52
membership to what you guys do and i

46:54
don't get paid a penny i don't want a

46:55
penny

46:56
i bring charles on here because hey he's

46:58
a friend b he's very smart as you just

47:00
well just knew and heard and if you

47:03
didn't know about him you know about him

47:04
now and you better follow him because

47:06
he's one of those people that you need

47:07
to be reading constantly but if you want

47:09
to become a member

47:11
of

47:11
aai.com just go there you can join for

47:14
as low as 49 a year okay i mean this

47:17
podcast is worth 49 just what charles

47:20
said for goodness sakes but they they

47:22
have helped millions of people

47:24
um over the years i think they've got

47:26
150 to 200 000 members right now of

47:29
which you you know you're part of that

47:30
community

47:31
but at a minimum at a minimum you should

47:34
join just to get the journal which

47:36
charles is the editor of the aai journal

47:39
and that's just gold i've been reading

47:41
it for a long long time and it is solid

47:44
it is just should be in your wheelhouse

47:46
of things that you're looking at

47:48
especially for are you what i call

47:49
chapter two people you're you're in the

47:52
you're not working anymore you're

47:53
retired or semi-retired and your your

47:55
part-time job is to manage what you

47:58
worked your rear end off to save and put

48:00
away

48:01
consider charles and his team part of

48:03
your team

48:04
and that's the reason i wanted him on

48:06
and i'm certainly going to have him on

48:07
again because

48:08
as you can tell he has very

48:11
succinct

48:13
and very smart and high iq insights into

48:15
what's going on right now in the markets

48:18
um

48:19
in and this is coming from a person that

48:22
has seen the markets evolve from

48:24
not a 24 7 365 global marketplace i mean

48:28
me and him joked a while back about you

48:30
know we were in it way back in the day

48:31
when you put in an order and it was a

48:33
vacuum tube and you wrote it on a piece

48:36
of paper then the vacuum tube shot to

48:38
the front desk and then they inputted it

48:39
by hand

48:40
i mean that's

48:42
i think that's important for to have

48:43
that kind of knowledge because as i tell

48:46
people all the time

48:47
most advisors out there right now number

48:49
one have never seen a bull market and

48:50
number two

48:52
charles and i have cowboy boots older

48:54
than they are

48:56
don't you agree

48:57
yes yes

48:59
yes i don't admit i'm that old come on

49:02
you haven't changed that you haven't

49:04
changed that much we've we've been

49:05
around the block together and it's been

49:07
fun it's been fun watching you and what

49:09
i admire about you is you found your

49:11
home there a long long time ago

49:14
and you've stayed there you'll be it

49:15
sounds like you're a lifer there i don't

49:17
think they're i think they've got the

49:18
permanent wing there for you right

49:21
yes

49:22
although i will say many people have

49:24
been there longer than i have so the

49:25
nice thing about our organization is

49:27
that we have a lot of people who have

49:28
been there for well over 20 years in

49:30
some cases over 30 years so we

49:32
people we find a home we find great

49:34
people they find a home and uh it truly

49:36
is family uh at the office that's

49:39
excellent i mean obviously we're gonna

49:40
have all the information for charles up

49:42
uh for the you to check him out check

49:44
his writings i will have his article

49:46
links up we'll have links up to the

49:48
association membership um his prism

49:50
wealth building system that he's put

49:52
together etc now charles one thing i do

49:54
with all my celebrity guests is at the

49:56
very end of the podcast we've reached

49:58
kind of that time

49:59
i give you the mic it's called the mic

50:01
drop moment and so you've got to hit us

50:04
with something i never i never give you

50:06
a heads up on it i hit you late so you

50:07
got to come up with it on the fly

50:09
give the people a kind of a mic drop

50:11
moment on where thing just what you

50:13
would want them to know if you had just

50:16
30 seconds to tell them something what

50:17
would you tell them

50:18
yeah i would just say

50:21
think about who you are as an investor

50:23
and never forget that and when you're

50:24
getting investment advice

50:26
think about who is that person that's

50:28
giving you an investment advice

50:30
and what do you know about them and what

50:32
do you not know about them and

50:34
understanding where your limits your

50:36
knowledge are and whether they where

50:38
they're not act can help you immensely

50:41
over the long term

50:44
that person that you just heard wax

50:46
eloquent charles roblet american

50:48
association of individual investors

50:51
a person that you've probably already

50:53
knew existed and you can't believe he

50:55
actually came on my podcast but he's a

50:57
good friend charles thank you so much

50:59
for being with us we hope to have you on

51:01
soon

51:02
and um i want to thank everybody in all

51:05
the major podcast platforms out there

51:06
that's listening to us once again every

51:08
week and the people that are viewing us

51:09
on the fun with annuities youtube

51:11
channel i will see you next week on fun

51:15
with annuities

51:20
thanks for listening to fun with

51:22
annuities please hit the subscribe

51:24
button and make sure to go to my site at

51:26
the annuityman.com where you can run

51:29
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51:32
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51:34
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51:36
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51:39
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51:42
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51:44
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51:47
encourage you to schedule a one-on-one

51:49
call with me stand the annuity man so we

51:52
can have a full discussion of your

51:54
specific situation it will be the best

51:57
brutally factual and truthful advice

52:00
you will ever get and that's one

52:01
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52:03
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52:05
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52:08
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52:10
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52:14
[Music]

52:25
you