096 Owen Schrum: Crypto, The Fed and Other Things Not Said

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welcome to fun with annuities with your

0:06
host me stan the annuity man america's

0:09
annuity agent can annuities be fun can

0:12
contractual guarantees be fun

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absolutely they can find out the brutal

0:17
facts about annuities with no sales

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pitches or high pressure nonsense just

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the brutal and factual annuity truth

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which is all you need to hear

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let's have some fun with annuities and

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let's have that fun start right now

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[Music]

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welcome to fun with annuities i'm your

0:41
host standing annuity man america's

0:43
nudity agent licensed in all 50 states i

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want to welcome everyone on all the

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major podcast platforms and also people

0:48
that are looking at the stunning good

0:50
looks of my guest on the youtube channel

0:53
fun with annuities youtube channel um

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i'm so happy that owen shrum is back

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with us owen is one of the top

1:00
individual money managers in the country

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he works with with consumers just like i

1:04
do one-on-one so i'd encourage you to go

1:06
to shrum

1:08
s-c-h-r-u-m-p-w dot com and that will be

1:10
on my site don't worry about writing

1:13
that down but the reason i want to have

1:14
him back on is number one he's he's been

1:16
doing this a long time taught me

1:18
everything that i know

1:19
about the stock markets etc full

1:22
disclosure i used to be partners with

1:24
owen at morgan stanley a long long time

1:27
ago and um you know he's just he's just

1:30
a really good friend but throw the

1:31
friendship aside for a second he is a

1:34
bad dude when it comes to

1:36
um money management he is really really

1:39
really good and i encourage you for any

1:41
any of your non-annuity type thoughts

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you need to at least interview him have

1:46
a conversation with him because he is

1:49
he's he's really really good at what he

1:50
does so with that being said oh and

1:52
welcome back to fun

1:54
with annuities

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oh it's good to see you again thanks for

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having me on stan absolutely and as i

1:59
was saying before we got on the

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broadcast you know owen went to

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university of north carolina chapel hill

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so that's the reason i have the carolina

2:05
blue baseball cap on um he considers

2:08
chapel hill to be sacred ground he might

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be right it was when dean smith was

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there coaching basketball

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might not be as sacred now

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but um no he's he's a he's a good friend

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and we share a lot of a lot of outside

2:21
things together with music and

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basketball and things like that but i

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wanted to have you all know and because

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you have access to people that

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that we we

2:30
the the peons out here do not i mean

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you're talking to people like jeremy

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siegel and byron wean and you have those

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connections and those insights from

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those people that have been

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in the business for decades and decades

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and decades and we're in weird times

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obviously but i wanted to get your take

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start where you want to start and then

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we'll just go from there because i want

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to hear your thoughts on current markets

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and what's going to happen hopefully

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you'll have some insight into 2022.

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yeah thank you

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what i want to explain first where i put

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together this list we started about 5-10

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years ago 35 years in the business the

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main thing we've learned there are some

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really really smart professionals out

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there not the ones you always see on

3:11
cnbc are doing commercials the ones that

3:13
are managing big institutional monies

3:16
the economist dr siegel's byron wiens

3:19
henry mcveigh kkr

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and

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there's for all of

3:24
all of the

3:26
bad information there are tidbits of

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really smart

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strategists that give us information

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that makes people money and helps them

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protect their money so we gather that

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information from these people at the end

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of the year and january 1st we put out

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our 2022 outlook but it is driven by the

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consensus of what these really smart

3:48
professionals are giving us from an

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information point of view so i'm going

3:53
to go over it because it's playing out

3:55
now remember as i give you some of this

3:57
information stan and the audiences we

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put this together january 1st so this is

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building through the fourth quarter and

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the first thing they said was

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number one we are going to see a big

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increase in volatility this year

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and you're going to see at least two

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corrections

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in 2022 define correction a correction a

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correction is when the market goes down

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10 or more

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in the short term and comes back okay as

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opposed to a bear market

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which is 20 percent

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associated typically with a recession

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and can last years

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owen do you believe

4:40
that they are actually going to raise

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rates and if they and if you say yes

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then you're then you you believe in

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humanity and i like that

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um but if you say yes then how how are

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those supposed alleged potential

4:52
increases in the interest rate

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how's that going to affect the stock

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market and people's investments

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they are going to raise interest rates

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in our opinion three times this year and

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four times more next year

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our opinion is that will be 25 base

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quarter points each time but

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seven increases

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we're changing it the word we're getting

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out now is they may announce

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this week that they are going to raise

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interest rates at the end of march

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our original thoughts were three times

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in the fourth quarter they may start

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early the answer is yes they are and a

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lot why all of a sudden is the fed the

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fed autonomous and doing what they're

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supposed to do whereas before with

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previous administration this one it

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seems like they're being bullied i mean

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the fed is not the fed should be

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standalone that's why they're there but

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they certainly haven't acted like that

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over the last five to six years

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why all of a sudden

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you know are they flexing their muscle

5:50
here when they should be

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well great question and

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dr

5:56
siegel from wharton made this point last

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year that the fed was behind the curve

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they needed to raise interest rates but

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being political animals

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they would not start

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until

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powell was reconfirmed

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this year

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he has been reconfirmed for two more

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years he is now going he is a lame duck

6:18
federal reserve he's a lame duck with a

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heck of a lot of power

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a heck of a lot of power and also

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um they made they are behind the curve

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now rightfully so no one knew where this

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pandemic was going to take us last april

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no one knew

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and

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they have put in the world the greatest

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amount of liquidity meaning cash money

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into the financial markets in history

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greater than post world war ii 25

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percent increase

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in m2 which is the amount of money that

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comes with it printed so much money

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that's exactly right unbelievable and

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they if they don't do something we could

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be looking at hyperinflation and

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but but oh and if they raise interest

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rates aren't they raising interest rate

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payments on themselves

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they the annu they the government

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well they aren't the government

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no no what i'm saying is

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if if the fed raises rates

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then all of this debt and all of this

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printing of money you know we and all of

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the things that we owe as a government

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those payments are going to go up i

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understand that it should be autonomous

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but that's that's where my conspiracy

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hat comes on and go

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man i just don't i think the pressure

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after the first rate increase will be so

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huge and heavy

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that they'll come off of it you're

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saying they're not going to come off of

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it they're not going to they can't come

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off of it

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they come off of it inflation printed

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seven percent last quarter alone right

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i mean seven percent is a big number

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and five percent next year five percent

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the next year we're looking at a 20

8:03
increase in inflation over the next

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three to four years and there's no

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that's baked in it's too late to change

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that there's nothing my boy biden can do

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about that right

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you can't just

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our economy is he's not my boy by the

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way i did i died that was a joke

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i have to be i have to really walk up a

8:22
fine level yeah i mean we're not

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political but he's what you're saying is

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there's nothing he can do

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there's nothing it's it's common

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they don't stand

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it's quite possible without raising

8:35
interest rates we could look at

8:37
hyperinflation that could force a

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devaluation of our currency we can't be

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our agenda so they have to fed has to do

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they have to do something

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honestly i like hearing this because

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um

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you know from i'm a planner i'm a box

8:52
checker just like you and most of my

8:54
clients and people out there listening

8:56
they are as well or else why the heck

8:57
are you listening you're trying to get

8:59
some insight but what you're saying is

9:00
bank it i mean this these rates are

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going to go up because they have to go

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up because if they don't go up we're

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screwed right that's exactly

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plain

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is that the southern version of it okay

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that's that's southern fed talk that's

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southern fed talk we're screwed if we

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don't do this i'm gonna tell you that

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right now

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you know and um people people laugh all

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the time because i have this mythical

9:22
person named chester that is the guy

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that that for me and you oh and chester

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is our uncle at the at the family

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reunion is like let me tell you

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something boy

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the fed

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they bet let me tell you something son

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that fed better raise rates or all hecks

9:39
going that's that's that's chester

9:42
talking about the fed

9:43
but that's just interesting so inflation

9:46
is going to continue to go up which

9:48
means the media is going to go crazy

9:50
which means that

9:51
there will be a change of power

9:53
regardless of what idiot is running on

9:56
either side um

9:58
so it's going to happen but but in two

10:00
years so we've inflation's gone up what

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happens then what are what are the smart

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people in the room like you saying

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okay

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this is

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history

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redone and it

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it's it's eerie how accurate this

10:14
replays itself since the 50s the 60s the

10:18
70s and the 80s

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nothing is nothing is the new normal

10:22
stand nothing so history shows

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everyone thinks the fed raises interest

10:26
rates the market's going to crash so

10:28
understand interest rates were 0.8

10:30
percent a year ago 0.8 i know they

10:34
average five

10:36
so they're going to talk about raising

10:37
interest rates

10:39
people are going to sell

10:40
which is what's happening right now

10:43
because they're going to find out

10:44
they're going to raise

10:45
they realize now they're going to raise

10:46
interest rates we're having volatility

10:49
they're going to sell

10:50
and then they're going to realize wait a

10:52
minute they're raising at 25 basis

10:53
points to 1.25

10:56
and why are they doing that it's because

10:57
the economy is growing so fast

11:00
what what happens when the economy grows

11:02
fast earnings grow fast earnings are the

11:06
lifeblood of the stock market stock

11:08
market is nothing but a company's

11:10
earnings plus its dividends so when the

11:13
earnings go they finally say okay

11:15
they're gonna raise it to two percent

11:17
big deal

11:18
and earnings is going to come in a 12

11:21
increase this year which is enormous and

11:24
that's another one of our consensus

11:25
beliefs so the market continues and our

11:28
consensus is for 2022

11:31
starting from january first not right

11:33
now that

11:35
dow is going to go up five percent s p

11:37
is going to go up seven percent

11:39
that's 2022

11:41
but it's still it's still north you know

11:44
we're still headed north even with

11:45
interest rate increases

11:47
now here's the next step this is what

11:50
history also shows us the fed always

11:52
raises interest rates too much

11:54
they always do so why is that

11:57
yeah please do you know that and they

11:59
don't know that uh because

12:02
it's just something you can't time y'all

12:04
it's almost

12:06
the remedy okay let me give you a that's

12:08
a terrible analogy when someone has

12:10
cancer what do you do

12:12
what do you do with chemo chemo is

12:13
killing the cancer but it makes the

12:15
patient sick also you don't know exactly

12:17
the right amount correct you do know you

12:19
have it actually is a actually good but

12:21
morbid example it's not i hate to say it

12:24
that way

12:26
it points out it's an exact science they

12:28
have to slow the economy or you have

12:30
hyperinflation they don't know how much

12:32
that is until feds are if they try to

12:35
say it's forward-looking it's backwards

12:37
looking they raise interest rates until

12:39
the economy stalls a recession happens

12:42
and it's a cycle that starts again so

12:45
typically historically

12:48
market hiccups you get a sell-off then

12:50
people figure it out the markets go up

12:53
as they raise interest rates they raise

12:55
them too much the economy stalls

12:58
then we have a recession then we have a

13:01
bear market and on these seven interest

13:03
rate hikes that you are predicting you

13:05
and your smart people

13:06
um over the next two years you're saying

13:09
25 basis points a quarter of one percent

13:11
what are you saying what is the levels

13:13
that they're going to do they're going

13:14
to tiptoe in

13:15
yeah they're too well they're tiptoe yes

13:17
they're going to tiptoe in as if then

13:19
they're not going to come in with

13:20
they might come in with 50 basis points

13:23
half a point but they're not going to do

13:24
75 basis points they're not going to do

13:26
one percent they're going to

13:28
do a quarter percent

13:30
see how it

13:31
takes do a quarter percent do a quarter

13:33
percent until the economy starts slowing

13:37
down inflation stops now understand the

13:40
united states economy is like one of

13:41
these giant

13:43
giant cruise ships you just can't put a

13:45
brake on and make it turn it's not a

13:47
sports car it's it's a nice it's a

13:49
cruise it's a cruise ship turning a

13:51
cruise ship around in a port if you've

13:53
ever been there exactly right so even

13:55
when they apply this they don't know

13:57
when it's going to stop so they keep

13:59
doing it until they get it going in the

14:01
direction they want unfortunately that

14:03
usually causes a recession

14:05
unfortunately recessions cause bear

14:07
markets that's what history shows us but

14:11
we're looking into 2023 for events like

14:13
that

14:15
so not raging bull market over the next

14:18
two years but bull market with interest

14:19
rates rising sounds pretty good owens or

14:23
the 4 20 22 um

14:26
the consensus we're seeing is remember i

14:29
don't know if i mentioned this before

14:30
two corrections

14:32
in 2022 and define yeah if we if we've

14:35
done this before i apologize but a

14:37
correction is what again

14:39
definition

14:40
correction is a short-term decline 10

14:44
to 20 that's what i thought

14:47
yeah and so that i mean in in these

14:49
volatile markets um i mean that could

14:52
happen in a day and a week and whatever

14:54
and and you had a good point

14:56
um when i talked to you previously

14:58
uh this week was about hey you know

15:00
we're dow 35 000 so

15:03
or ish wherever you want wherever it is

15:05
at the time of this taping um you know

15:07
it's not like the dow is at 1200 right

15:10
when we started back in the day because

15:12
as we as we say we have cowboy boots

15:14
older than most

15:16
investment advisors out there and and um

15:18
hold that thought for a second because i

15:20
want to ask you this

15:21
because most most of these advisors are

15:24
young and green and haven't seen a down

15:26
market and just think that everything's

15:27
going to go up

15:29
is that going to affect the markets

15:31
negatively or i mean are you going to

15:33
see some problems because most people

15:35
haven't seen a down market most advisors

15:38
my concern is short term and long term

15:40
remember we started this off as our

15:42
people say that we're going to have

15:43
increased volatility right because a lot

15:46
of people both professional and

15:48
individual haven't seen this before and

15:50
they're going to react emotionally

15:53
that's going to create the volatility my

15:56
concern is

15:57
people

15:58
who are new investors are going to

16:00
suffer their first correction

16:02
maybe their first bear market

16:05
and they're going to be like our great

16:06
grandparents who in the depression never

16:08
took the money out of the jar in the

16:10
backyard again they're going to abandon

16:12
stocks for the for years to come and

16:15
they're going to surrender one of the

16:17
great wealth creators

16:19
the america has well and i think that

16:22
we're seeing that kind of play out right

16:23
now real time with the people that

16:25
weren't sophisticated that bought crypto

16:28
and and they're coming in they're

16:30
getting they bought it at the high it's

16:32
it's half the value they're panicking

16:34
um i'm reading stories that are they're

16:36
tragic and funny at the same time about

16:38
people that thought they were

16:40
rich and all of a sudden they're not

16:41
rich and also too

16:43
people that are using margin that aren't

16:45
sophisticated to use margin to buy

16:47
things like i read somewhere where a lot

16:49
of the crypto purchased is margined with

16:51
crypto

16:53
so do you see crypto and we've talked

16:56
about crypto in the past in in one of

16:57
our previous podcasts where you really

17:01
succinctly and clearly explain

17:03
blockchain technology and i appreciate

17:05
that but do you see crypto being an

17:08
outlier

17:10
to these predictions that because it's

17:12
blue water and we've never seen it

17:14
before

17:15
could that throw a wrench in the engine

17:19
yes

17:20
good answer no point yes

17:23
expound my friend

17:25
that was that was next so crypto was

17:28
first presented as what a new currency

17:30
correct and i think it's proven to many

17:33
that that's not going to be the case who

17:35
wants to take their paycheck and a

17:37
currency that may go down 40

17:39
before they get their next paycheck a

17:42
couple of dumb people did it last year

17:44
and as you predicted by the way

17:46
you predicted this last year you said

17:48
hey

17:49
stan and listeners um the united states

17:52
government's going to get involved in

17:53
crypto and when they do it's game over

17:56
for a lot of these you know a lot of

17:58
these dreamers out here that are

17:59
creating their own or have their own

18:01
crypto

18:02
i mean you were on the money spot on and

18:05
just recently there was an announcement

18:07
that the united states government is now

18:09
looking into crypto and me and you both

18:12
know why they can track us and they can

18:13
tax us real time and and they there will

18:16
be no more april 15th when crypto hits

18:18
and the united states government's

18:20
controlling it exactly you were right on

18:23
the money with that what's your what's

18:24
your feel

18:26
on the crypto affecting the predictions

18:28
for the markets

18:30
um crypto has become

18:33
cryptocurrencies now okay i'm gonna back

18:35
up what i think what i personally think

18:37
crypto is i'm gonna

18:39
you're gonna get a lot of hate mail oh i

18:41
got hate mail from the first one so

18:43
bring it all you crazy i believe it is

18:46
an asset a risk asset class it's a

18:48
trading vehicle

18:50
commodities gold is it managed is it

18:53
managed futures our old friend managed

18:55
future so would it fall in the managed

18:56
futures category is it even more risky

18:58
than that

18:59
way more risky than managed futures did

19:02
you ever see managed futures go down 40

19:04
percent no but that's because our boy

19:05
john henry was running running the show

19:08
you know what i'm saying

19:10
people that know the futures they know

19:11
who john henry is he's he's a he's a

19:13
dude man he is a he is a really smart

19:16
guy and when we were at morgan stanley

19:19
together we had we had some managed

19:20
futures with some specific clients that

19:22
could handle it but what you're saying

19:23
is crypt is a whole nother game of

19:25
volatility crypto

19:27
so so

19:28
and by the way i saw

19:29
anthony scaramucci i think it was yes

19:32
and he was on cnbc yesterday and he's

19:35
changed his tone from being a

19:38
currency to it is a

19:41
technology play

19:43
that's what you said you said blockchain

19:45
it's not the crypto it's the blockchain

19:47
well he says they need to be sending you

19:49
money oh and these people are riding

19:51
your coattails he says a new asset class

19:54
i say it is a risk asset class it has no

19:57
stored value it's a way for people to tr

20:00
it's a it's a way for people to trade

20:03
something

20:04
but getting back in my opinion how it

20:06
affects

20:07
markets stock market etc

20:10
when we talk about me and you off off

20:13
air a lot of times about the unwinding

20:15
of crypto you know people don't know

20:17
what not knowing what a margin call is

20:18
that's the worst call you could ever get

20:20
um because you got to come up with money

20:22
immediately and there's no excuses um

20:25
will the unwinding of crypto which is

20:27
which is going to happen okay yes will

20:30
that

20:31
be a wrench in the engine that mr c dr

20:33
siegel and byron wayne and the smart

20:35
guys in the room

20:36
like you

20:38
can't predict and it might throw things

20:40
off a little bit to the contrary i'll

20:42
give you an alternative

20:43
scenario good how much money you've seen

20:46
at stan i'll let you comment how much

20:47
money do you think has gone into the

20:50
crypto market in the past three years i

20:52
couldn't even guess i'm assuming

20:53
trillions trillions and it when it went

20:56
into crypto where did it not go yeah

20:59
that's a good thing to go to the market

21:02
when people are pulling back the reins

21:04
and saying maybe i shouldn't take my

21:05
billion dollars and buy bitcoin

21:08
maybe i should buy the s p 500 maybe i

21:11
should buy microsoft maybe i should buy

21:13
pfizer that's a really good point the

21:15
money's got to go somewhere money's

21:17
going somewhere even if it's half the

21:19
amount of money

21:20
so let's just say there's three trillion

21:22
in crypto it corrects and now it's worth

21:24
a trillion trillion still got to go

21:26
somewhere right it's new money that i'm

21:28
thinking of i think less new money will

21:30
flood into it that money will go

21:32
somewhere interestingly enough guess

21:34
what asset class has seen the most debt

21:36
influx in the past quarter gold

21:39
what was debt gold was dead last year

21:41
right what's your thought on that

21:43
um it is

21:45
rich rich money high net worth money

21:48
is science and i need a hedge from

21:50
stocks

21:52
i'm not going to buy crypto i'm going to

21:54
go buy gold that's my opinion well and i

21:56
read the other day this might might or

21:58
might not be true because at this point

21:59
who can i mean our media is suspect at

22:02
best but i did read that 40 of all

22:04
crypto is controlled by one percent

22:07
of the people

22:08
so i mean it is a it's closely held

22:10
which means that the other 60

22:12
are

22:13
wandering ambiguities that probably

22:15
shouldn't have bought it in the first

22:16
place right

22:18
right but that's going to happen do you

22:19
see crypto

22:21
correcting and i don't know what the

22:22
definition of a crypto correction

22:24
is what's already happened

22:26
sorry so it's all so you think the

22:28
corrections already happened with crypto

22:30
well i'm not saying it's found the

22:32
bottom it has happened it's down 40 is a

22:35
correction stan valid valid under your

22:37
definition it is a correction but just

22:39
gut instinct with me

22:41
and discernment i i just i think it's

22:43
got a ways to go

22:45
they gotta they gotta they gotta flush

22:47
out the weaklings

22:49
and and it they will be flushed out and

22:51
uh hopefully for the listeners out there

22:53
you're not a weakling

22:55
so and it's in proportion i mean you

22:57
said a long time ago there's nothing

22:59
wrong with investing and just in

23:00
proportion please don't go all in

23:04
but you're saying that the market's

23:05
going to absorb it and actually benefit

23:07
from a crypto correction so

23:09
it is going to happen it is going to be

23:11
ugly it is going to be volatile but at

23:12
the end of the day

23:14
it will be okay

23:15
yes i believe that

23:17
very much so

23:18
and that that's that's interesting and i

23:21
think going back to the original thought

23:23
you had yet last year when we asked on

23:24
the podcast talking about blockchain

23:26
blockchain technology is the investment

23:29
yeah that's where you that's where

23:30
you're

23:31
you know you've done your work with your

23:33
clients money

23:34
um in in looking for those opportunities

23:37
not crypto but blockchain blockchain is

23:39
the real deal

23:40
not only is it the investment it is the

23:43
vehicle that's going to make your

23:45
companies

23:47
that you own more profitable more

23:49
efficient

23:51
um it's the new technology

23:54
no i i agree with that totally

23:56
um

23:58
tell me about

24:01
and i hate to parrot what media says but

24:04
but i went to the grocery store last

24:06
night owen

24:07
and i'm a southerner you know that and

24:08
that's why you love me

24:10
but um i was looking for saltine

24:12
crackers owen there was none

24:14
on the shelves we're living in a world

24:16
that i never thought would exist where i

24:18
when i go to the store there's a doubt

24:20
in my mind that what i'm looking for

24:22
would actually be there i i know we were

24:23
spoiled but i cannot i i literally

24:27
looked at my wife unless i said there's

24:29
no saltine crackers seriously how's that

24:30
even how do i have peanut butter and

24:32
crackers um but my point is about the

24:35
supply chain

24:36
issues

24:37
give me your insight into that um

24:40
you know getting rid of the media hype

24:43
what's the real deal on the supply chain

24:45
stuff that's going on because it's it's

24:46
real to people like me that need saltine

24:48
crackers

24:50
i'm gonna get i'm gonna dip my toe into

24:52
politics here please do the start of the

24:55
supply chain problem

24:57
is the united states and other developed

24:59
countries deciding a decade ago that

25:02
they could make 10 cents more a share if

25:03
they outsourced all their production to

25:05
china

25:07
i agree

25:08
so when everything you import into the

25:11
united states

25:12
is in another country

25:15
in this case china and they have a

25:17
disruption which they're having

25:19
from the pandemic from the pandemic

25:23
from demographics

25:26
and then it piles up and you have

25:28
shipping issues in the united states

25:31
and the ports

25:32
and it is a domino effect but it starts

25:35
with the fact that we have outsourced

25:38
our raw materials our manufacturing

25:42
chips

25:46
technology chips for cars they're in

25:48
china i blame both parties and the

25:51
chamber of commerce

25:53
yes there's lots of blame for everybody

25:55
i mean but but both parties

25:57
and this is a this is agreed play that's

25:59
affected the country as a whole but i

26:02
think what's hap do you see the pendulum

26:04
turning and swinging a little bit

26:06
because labor

26:07
you know the workers seem to have a

26:09
little bit more power here owen i'm not

26:11
sure if that's good or bad i actually

26:13
think it's good for the workers i want

26:14
them to make more but obviously it's the

26:16
bottom line for the um for the suppliers

26:19
and the manufacturers but

26:22
you know if i was running for president

26:23
owen and i should

26:25
i would be like i would be pounding the

26:27
table and doing the tax incentives to to

26:30
keep the manufacturing here

26:32
because that's what you're saying is

26:34
we've we've done it to ourselves we've

26:36
done it to ourselves but that's that's

26:38
all right i'm gonna give you another

26:39
scenario three years from now

26:42
the pandemic was an ugly ugly memory

26:45
four years from now

26:47
and let's

26:48
so let's think back to 1970s

26:52
which you remember

26:54
and great music great music in 75 just

26:56
letting you great

26:58
great music i mean fiscal graffiti okay

27:01
exactly exactly go ahead i'm sorry and

27:04
we've got wage inflation

27:07
we have strikes we have disruptions and

27:09
supply

27:11
and the ceo says wow china's got their

27:14
stuff together

27:15
why don't we just outsource it back to

27:16
china again

27:17
and my concern is corporations absent

27:21
political

27:23
we need something from a national

27:25
political consensus that incentivizes

27:28
companies not to

27:30
not to seek the cheapest source if it

27:32
can make your earnings better and

27:34
increase your su

27:36
increase your your supply because you've

27:38
got disrupts in the united states five

27:40
years from now they'll go back to maybe

27:42
vietnam it may not be china oh it'll be

27:44
some third world country because we we

27:46
both grew up with this we're from north

27:48
carolina both of us god's country by the

27:50
way if you're keeping score

27:51
um and we saw this happen with the

27:54
textile mills because all of our

27:55
families worked in the textile mills

27:57
owen and i did not come from the silver

27:59
spoon gold spoon we came from poorer

28:01
middle class hard-working north carolina

28:04
and all of our family tree was working

28:06
in some type of either textile mill or

28:08
manufacturing mill

28:10
you know if you go back to the lenders

28:11
my grandfather your grandfather i mean

28:13
they were working on looms and then all

28:15
of a sudden they

28:17
you know went to china and it was over

28:19
um i i think that maybe this time

28:23
hopefully we'll learn a little bit

28:25
better as a country that we cannot have

28:26
it all

28:28
sourced overseas it's dangerous

28:31
i hope so i hope so

28:33
but

28:34
i

28:35
am not

28:36
i i'm not

28:38
optimistic about it well as long as the

28:40
the markets are quarter to quarter on

28:42
earnings that's and and people look at

28:45
it like that then they're always going

28:46
to be looking for the third world

28:47
solution for for labor

28:50
in most cases

28:51
getting back to the markets um

28:54
historically and we're doing this in

28:56
2022 we're going to up to the midterms

28:58
which hopefully no one's going to watch

29:00
because it's going to be horrific

29:02
but what happens historically during

29:04
midterms with the markets

29:06
or have we seen this have we seen this

29:08
combination of low rates getting ready

29:10
to raise interest rates volatility in

29:12
the markets and midterms what what's

29:14
your prediction for that

29:16
i do not have a

29:18
stan i'm very honest with you i don't

29:19
know the answer to that i love that see

29:21
owen's going to tell you the truth so

29:23
what's your what's your i mean gut feel

29:25
just yeah you don't have an answer i'll

29:27
ask everybody to look up this name frank

29:29
luntz

29:30
l-u-n-t-z i don't like him

29:33
well he's a nice guy and i'm sure his

29:34
wife makes a really nice peach cobbler

29:36
but he's the pollster right he's the

29:39
borah he's not a pollster he does focus

29:42
groups

29:43
and in fact he called brexit he made a

29:45
tomata whatever

29:46
he called brexit he called trump he

29:48
called trump again he called last

29:50
midterms he's very accurate

29:53
right like it or not he said that his

29:55
group showing

29:57
if you look at news everybody's focused

29:59
on

30:00
um

30:02
voting rights whether right or wrong but

30:04
uh january 6

30:07
they're overlooking he says people are

30:09
concerned about inflation absolutely

30:12
and that's what's driving it and it's

30:14
not being addressed and he says that

30:16
it's almost a certainty that you'll see

30:19
uh the house of representatives go to

30:22
the republicans

30:23
and the senate thin majority go back to

30:26
the republicans just let's just hope

30:28
they have a plan on a side note i think

30:29
we all can agree listeners oh and

30:31
everyone that frank luntz has a head

30:34
that will not accept a baseball cap so i

30:36
can never see him

30:38
he's got one of these weird i mean i'm

30:40
not i mean you know i wear basically but

30:42
i wear it with you know i wear suave you

30:44
look good i thank you very much i mean

30:46
it's it's natural but um

30:49
but frank luntz is one of these dudes if

30:50
i ever saw him with a baseball cap i

30:52
would like run up to him and rip it off

30:53
his head and say do not do that

30:56
you look like you shouldn't be doing

30:57
that i was going to say something that

30:58
was probably a thin but

31:01
he's been he's been accurate we do i do

31:03
listen to what he says though i have to

31:04
say i don't like him but i do listen to

31:06
what he said yeah he's a you know he's

31:08
uh he's messy as they say he's messy um

31:12
tell me about bonds oh and trump you

31:14
know you're tall you taught me

31:16
everything i know

31:17
about bonds which is a crapload and

31:19
you've forgotten more than anyone else

31:21
will ever know about them

31:24
bonds coming up now this could be fun or

31:27
not fun

31:28
not fun of the five of the five people

31:32
that we followed closely there was only

31:34
one item where there was 100 consensus

31:38
and that 100 consensus was that anyone

31:41
who involves bonds that are longer than

31:44
one year in maturity which all funds are

31:47
yes target date funds are going to have

31:49
negative returns this year negative

31:51
returns next year dr siegel says they're

31:54
going to have negative returns for the

31:56
next five years and if you have a

31:58
closed-in bond that baby's probably

32:00
margin

32:02
understand a quick lesson make it real

32:05
simple picture of see-saw stick your

32:07
arms out

32:09
when interest rates go up the value of

32:11
your bonds go down on the other end of

32:13
the sea salt bonds have been in a bull

32:15
market since 1985.

32:17
that bull market is over if you own

32:21
bonds

32:22
and there have most bond funds have

32:24
maturities of 10 years

32:26
at least

32:28
that's your average duration and a bond

32:30
fund that means when interest rates go

32:33
up one percent

32:35
you lose 10 percent of value

32:37
by the way when you did that arm thing

32:38
for the people on the podcast he did

32:40
like like owen was flying a plane and i

32:42
just there's instinctually i wanted to

32:44
start singing wheels on the bus go round

32:46
and round

32:47
um it was like

32:49
i understand but it just i just was

32:51
thinking you know wheels on the bus go

32:53
ground and round round no but um so

32:55
you're telling people that that have

32:57
bonds bond funds closing bond funds you

32:59
might want to exit the building

33:02
uh i think you need to talk to your

33:04
advisor

33:06
lawyers are over my shoulders

33:08
that's a compliance trap yes uh call

33:10
owen shrom

33:12
you know and for the people that uh

33:14
this is owen trauma he is he is a

33:17
fantastic

33:19
money manager if you're looking for that

33:21
you know fee only guy that is going to

33:23
shoot it straight and and what i really

33:26
like about what you do

33:28
is you manage risk can you go into

33:32
what that means in 2022 to manage risk

33:34
on a portfolio

33:38
the old school is diversification

33:40
accounted for 80 of the return of your

33:43
portfolio and we got away from that as

33:45
as tech stocks have gone through the

33:47
roof and to make money you had to own

33:50
you know the names the tesla's the

33:53
amazons

33:54
and people

33:56
the movie theater that people were

33:58
buying and on reddit i forget the name

34:02
but you you get you get the idea and

34:06
we're going back to an era where

34:08
diversification is king you need to have

34:11
at different asset classes you need to

34:13
have different sectors you need to have

34:15
different size stocks you need to be

34:17
diversificate diversified

34:20
diversification doesn't mean owning five

34:22
different mutual funds because those

34:24
mutual funds probably own the same

34:26
stocks you're talking about asset

34:28
classes now diversification that means i

34:29
have to wear bell bottoms again owen

34:31
because i look good in that

34:34
diversification means you might own cash

34:37
you might involve

34:38
inflation-protected securities you would

34:41
own annuities you would own large stocks

34:44
value stocks international stocks real

34:47
estate and just the there's these

34:50
programs that will run that give you

34:52
it's called the efficient market

34:54
sufficient frontier modern portfolio

34:56
theory won a nobel prize in the 60s but

34:59
there's a formula there's a computer

35:01
program where there's a perfect mix of

35:03
asset classes for someone's risk profile

35:06
their individual risk profile and if you

35:09
get that right balance you minimize risk

35:12
and maximize the return for the risk

35:14
that you're going to take and in my

35:16
opinion you achieve that by proper

35:18
diversification

35:20
and as always dividends and cash flow

35:24
are king

35:25
well and and everyone's different

35:27
there's a there's not a cookie cutter i

35:28
mean when you a client calls you and i

35:30
know this for a fact i mean it's

35:32
customization i mean you're listening to

35:33
them you're asking the questions you're

35:35
qualifying them their goals their risk

35:36
tolerance and then you're putting

35:38
together

35:38
a one-off for them each specific person

35:41
and then you help manage that or manage

35:43
that for them

35:44
ongoing but that's um i think i think

35:48
the value of a money manager like

35:50
yourself i i don't know if that's the

35:51
correct

35:52
um

35:53
description of you

35:55
but

35:56
an expert i think i think the experts

35:59
are going to go are going to divide

36:02
move away from the weaklings and the

36:04
beginners you're going to have to have

36:05
someone really good like an owen

36:07
managing that side and looking at it all

36:09
the time because it's going to be choppy

36:12
for the next couple years right yeah and

36:14
stan i also want to add something to you

36:17
you have

36:18
really good people that listen to your

36:19
podcast well intended they want to learn

36:22
something i want to give them a take

36:23
away something they may not have thought

36:24
of okay when we mentioned that bonds in

36:27
our opinion are going to have negative

36:28
returns

36:30
i know a lot of people say i don't own

36:32
bonds so i'm going to ask you to stop

36:34
for a second do you own a 401k

36:36
a lot of people do guess what by a large

36:39
factor the main thing that people invest

36:42
in a 401k in target dates target day

36:44
funds yep target date funds look inside

36:47
of them that'll just be a hint

36:50
look inside they have bonds that's what

36:53
makes them a target debt fund and if you

36:55
it's a lot of them have long term bonds

36:58
so you need to look inside your target

37:00
date funds or have your advisor run a

37:02
report on the target date funds and find

37:05
out how many bonds are in their

37:07
portfolio

37:08
and what the maturity average maturity

37:11
is

37:11
of those bonds and their target dates

37:14
don't let this mess blow up your

37:16
retirement just because you weren't

37:18
aware what's inside of your 401k plan

37:21
well we're not we're not poo pooing on

37:22
bonds that's a technical term poo pooing

37:25
um

37:26
but but people have to understand

37:27
there's more bonds out there than stocks

37:29
and bonds are volatile correct people

37:31
people have an assumption sometimes that

37:32
bonds are

37:34
safe and they can be if done correctly

37:36
but they're not all the time safer than

37:38
all the time liquid either i think

37:40
liquidity of bond holdings is a big one

37:42
as well

37:43
um

37:44
and just because you're buying a bond

37:46
mutual fund or bond etf doesn't mean

37:48
that you're you're slaying it right

37:52
correct

37:54
correct but didn't you tell me a long

37:55
time ago and i i remember when we were

37:57
at morgan's morgan stanley

37:59
um

38:00
and they're you know big municipal bond

38:02
buyers we love that you taught me

38:03
everything i need to know about muni's

38:05
but aren't the institutions just coming

38:07
in and buying those things locked stock

38:09
and barrel and

38:10
what's happening in the muni world well

38:13
actually one of the biggest declines

38:15
we've seen in the past six months has

38:17
been municipal bonds really going down

38:19
into why is that i mean returns because

38:22
interest rates are rising and your

38:23
average municipal bonds a 30-year bond

38:25
that's valid period that's a simple

38:28
answer i don't need anybody and if you

38:29
oh if you and if you take that bond to

38:32
term and on it for 30 years you're fine

38:34
but if you look the valuation underlying

38:36
that bond is going to is going to

38:38
fluctuate so

38:40
that's the reason you'll see bonds you

38:42
know par on on a bond is 100 and you'll

38:44
see one selling for 107 or 106.

38:47
um you know just people need i mean

38:50
here's here's what i tell people all the

38:52
time in the and this is the correlation

38:54
i'm staying the annuity man there's no

38:56
need for you to dive into annuities even

38:59
though i have 500 videos and podcasts

39:00
and seven books i'll send you all those

39:02
you can do your own research but at the

39:03
end of the day you need an expert

39:05
same thing for the risk management side

39:08
equities bonds etfs whatever you need an

39:12
expert yes you can do your own research

39:14
but

39:15
um in a fee conscious world i understand

39:17
people don't want to pay fees and they

39:18
want to strip fees out i get that i mean

39:20
i really do

39:22
but

39:24
there is a reason

39:25
that

39:27
people with real money have advisors and

39:29
experts and specialist doctors and

39:31
people like that because

39:33
they're specialists right

39:35
um are you seeing people a little bit

39:37
more open to

39:39
having an expert like you manage their

39:41
money because they see volatility coming

39:44
on the forefront

39:45
interesting question and here's what

39:47
we're seeing and that's what we've we've

39:48
been seeing

39:50
and it's the exact opposite of what most

39:52
people would think

39:54
people with high net worth people

39:58
are all are

39:59
on a large percentage hiring people to

40:02
help them manage their money

40:04
the more you go down in the net worth

40:06
line people just starting out with

40:08
without

40:11
all money is important i'm not

40:12
diminishing

40:13
we both came from no money so we i mean

40:15
we're

40:16
those advisors that came from poor

40:19
actually the reason that we're advisors

40:20
we couldn't figure out why everyone else

40:21
had money we didn't honestly we've had

40:23
that discussion and then we became

40:25
advisors and saw what other advisors

40:27
were doing to people

40:28
exactly so that's another podcast

40:33
but

40:33
but what we're finding is as you go up

40:36
the net worth curve that the percentage

40:39
of people hiring advisors go up

40:41
and it really should be the reverse

40:44
it really should be

40:46
i mean it's sad but it should be the

40:48
reverse i think and i have nothing

40:49
against do-it-yourselfers because

40:51
you know annuities because they're

40:52
contracts it's kind of a do-it-yourself

40:54
thing but but stock market stuff is not

40:56
do it yourself okay

40:57
um in a raging bull market it can be

41:00
because it's a regional market but what

41:02
you're saying in your outlook is going

41:03
forward it's not going to be it's going

41:05
to be bullish but it ain't going to be

41:06
raging bullish right

41:08
uh

41:09
i'm not even saying depending upon your

41:12
time if we're looking at 20 years 10

41:14
years it's going to be bullish

41:15
for looking at one year it's going to i

41:17
believe it's going to be bullish we're

41:19
looking two three four years i'm i'm not

41:21
guaranteeing that i'm not getting

41:23
anything and i think that's that's

41:25
important because as i always tell

41:27
people that are retirees already retired

41:30
thinking about retirement trying to

41:31
spell retirement looking at retirement

41:32
retirement

41:34
on the horizon

41:35
i mean

41:36
you need

41:38
you need to focus in on

41:42
you're at lap three or four do you want

41:44
to take risks you need to manage the

41:46
risk you don't have time to go backwards

41:48
as much as you did when you're in your

41:50
40s

41:52
so i think it's even more important to

41:54
look at risk in managing risk or in a

41:57
case for annuities for principal

41:58
protection like to minim transfer risk

42:01
um

42:03
the most critical time the sardine rust

42:06
the most critical time investing in your

42:09
life

42:10
is the three to four years before you

42:12
retire

42:13
and the three to four years after you

42:15
retire that's a really good feeling case

42:17
in point

42:19
john and joe

42:20
john doe and jane doe john retired with

42:23
his million dollars

42:24
on

42:25
january of 2007

42:28
and started taking income on it invested

42:31
it gonna take it out

42:32
and then found out in 2009

42:36
that million dollars was worth 600 000

42:38
and he had gone back to work

42:40
jane invested 2009 two years later her

42:44
million dollars was at 1.5 million just

42:47
by luck

42:48
just by bad timing or good timing you

42:51
can't take a chance on luck when you're

42:53
retiring so the most important time to

42:56
make sure you're managing risk in your

42:58
money is a couple years before

43:00
retirement and the couple years after

43:03
retirement because you can't afford to

43:04
just have bad luck no absolutely

43:07
recently i had wade fowl on the podcast

43:10
and people don't know who a foul p f a

43:12
you pull him up smart guy doesn't sell

43:14
anything but he he writes books and

43:15
talks and people listen to him oh and he

43:18
destroyed the four percent rule he

43:21
factually destroyed it he threw it under

43:23
the bus he drove over it a few times and

43:25
then he did it again

43:26
based upon his research

43:29
i know that when we were in morgan

43:31
stanley and owen owns his owns his own

43:34
firm now it's shrum

43:36
s-c-h-r-u-m-p-w dot com please go there

43:39
um

43:40
do you agree with wade on the four

43:42
percent rule is that is that dog that

43:44
dog doesn't hunt anymore well the main

43:47
reason that doesn't that dog doesn't

43:49
hunt is because interest rates have

43:50
fallen when when the four percent rule

43:52
was in place you had a predictable

43:54
return of five to six percent on bonds

43:57
and well said well said my friend i mean

44:00
dick marsden at wharton has done so much

44:02
work on that and he

44:03
he used to

44:05
preach the four percent rule even to

44:07
institutions he says no you can't do it

44:09
anymore and one of the main drivers

44:11
again is you're not getting that return

44:13
on your your safe assets that you used

44:16
to

44:17
that's true and and i also wade's

44:20
comment too was when the four percent

44:22
rule was

44:23
initially adopted by the industry and it

44:26
is such a hack way to do it i mean if

44:28
anyone's saying well just use the four

44:30
percent rule that is a hack you need to

44:32
walk out of their office immediately um

44:35
it's because a lot of the international

44:37
markets were not were not um

44:40
taken into account of the four percent

44:42
no it was more of a domestic

44:44
um u.s market thought but it's just it's

44:46
just kind of gone by the wayside so

44:48
yes it's wonderful that you could

44:51
peel off gains or interest and not touch

44:54
the principle etc that's perfect world i

44:55
hope it happens for you

44:57
but

44:58
yeah

44:59
in a bull market it could but in a

45:01
choppy market it can't

45:03
particularly when you're taking

45:04
immediate with distributions from your

45:05
money

45:06
because

45:07
you're if you're in a down market and

45:08
you keep taking money out and you're

45:10
taking principle out instead of returns

45:12
and then when the market turns around

45:14
you have less principle working for you

45:18
i know that you have been so gracious to

45:20
to give us your outlook on things um

45:24
today

45:25
is there something on your site that

45:26
shows that as well do you have something

45:28
written up do you have something you can

45:30
send to people we have something we can

45:32
send to people it is sitting on the

45:34
compliance officer's desk right now to

45:36
put it on our website that's the world

45:38
we live in and yeah

45:40
so in other words shoot your knee shoot

45:42
go to the site sign up for it you'll get

45:44
it to them and and if you want to have a

45:46
conversation with owen

45:48
uh

45:49
you know and he has associates but but

45:51
uh because you know i want you to talk

45:52
to the people you know there's a lot of

45:54
people that have that heard you on the

45:55
previous podcast and talked to you and

45:57
became clients and they really like your

45:59
cadence and how you do things you'll

46:00
you'll give them the oversight as well

46:03
but i i understand the compliance issue

46:05
i thought that that's just

46:07
that's just a post on the site email

46:08
stan i'll have it to you in two hours

46:11
there you go i mean it's stan at the

46:15
annuity man.com

46:17
what else and there's a lot of things

46:19
happening in the world we're we're

46:20
looking a little bit myopically at

46:23
markets and bonds and etfs and things

46:25
like that

46:26
but we're living in a wild world once

46:28
again we at the time this taping

46:31
there's there's chaos and potential war

46:33
on the horizon in eastern europe etc

46:36
what is that another

46:39
thing that you just that could throw

46:41
things out of whack if that happens or

46:43
or what's your take on that

46:45
as you know we there's a lot of moving

46:47
parts interest rates potentially rising

46:49
crypto declining even more and unfolding

46:53
um

46:54
war what's your what's your war take on

46:57
the markets

46:58
it is

46:59
in the short term it's going to increase

47:02
volatility

47:03
and

47:05
by early and by the way if you type in

47:08
my name

47:09
we've mentioned and stan mentioned byron

47:11
wayne a wonderful man and a very very

47:14
smart very very wealthy man

47:16
i get an article for u.s news and world

47:19
report on byron wien it's a good read

47:22
and there's some wonderful tidbits of

47:24
knowledge i bring him up because he said

47:28
the greatest time to invest ever

47:31
is climbing the wall of worry he

47:33
invented that term

47:35
markets will sell off over things like

47:38
ukraine

47:40
oil embargoes

47:41
and all they're doing is transferring

47:44
money from people not being very smart

47:46
to people who are smart meaning some

47:47
people sell and some people's buying

47:50
those assets at cheaper prices climbing

47:52
the wall of worry

47:54
his number one wait a minute it wasn't

47:57
that

47:58
an album by matt the hoople

48:01
in 74

48:03
climbing the wall of worry

48:05
or is it pink void

48:06
people that

48:08
google not the hoople for anyone i mean

48:10
owen and are music people but climbing

48:12
the wall of worry which is which is a

48:14
contrarian way of a very smart way of

48:16
saying

48:17
when the [ __ ] hits the fan turn the fan

48:18
on faster and when everybody's buying

48:22
maybe think they're overpaying for it

48:24
his biggest indicator for being wealthy

48:27
he's a wealthy man

48:29
was the

48:32
uncertainty versus sad when people were

48:34
optimistic he sold

48:37
when people turned he had he measured

48:39
sentiment and when sentiment turned

48:41
below 50

48:43
he put every buy signal in the world and

48:46
when investor sentiment got over 80

48:48
percent he started selling

48:51
that's just that's common sense

48:53
contrarian

48:55
strategy right there common sense so

48:57
that's how i'm answering however you

49:00
will historically be it lebanon uh

49:03
africa

49:04
ukraine two this is the second time we

49:07
visited ukraine yeah

49:09
you're we are always going to have these

49:11
pop up markets always react negatively

49:14
and they always go back

49:16
now if that turns into world war ii i

49:18
can't predict that

49:20
but that's called a fat you know a black

49:22
black swan event i can't predict those

49:24
but

49:25
nobody can but if we have your

49:28
internationals um skirmishes that happen

49:33
markets do react in the short term

49:35
negatively and often times they're

49:36
opportunities

49:38
would you rather buy

49:40
x would you rather buy x stock at 120 or

49:43
two weeks later at 100 because it went

49:46
down short term because of

49:48
an international event

49:51
which begs for you to have someone like

49:53
owen

49:54
manage either all or a portion of your

49:56
money um just because you need expertise

50:00
um in these types of markets he's been

50:02
doing this a long time i mean a long

50:04
time

50:05
i know he looks vibrant but he's old i

50:07
know that for a fact

50:09
i do this with every

50:11
celebrity guest i have on i've done it

50:13
with you in the past i'm gonna do it

50:14
with you one more time yeah

50:16
words of wisdom might drop moment owen

50:19
trump leave some nuggets of wisdom for

50:22
our viewers and listeners before we

50:24
close this thing out

50:27
do not

50:29
invest

50:31
your hard earned money

50:32
emotionally

50:35
do it stone cold non-emotional talking

50:39
to an advisor or a trusted person do not

50:42
let emotions

50:43
factor into your money

50:46
sociopathic investing

50:49
behavioral finance is the term

50:54
i'm always pushing that envelope you

50:56
know um

50:58
owen strom good friend you know your

51:01
family to me but you're also one of the

51:03
smartest guys in the country

51:05
when it comes to managing money insights

51:07
into the market

51:08
um well respected he's an icon that if

51:11
you don't know about him you do now

51:14
and i would encourage you to go to shrum

51:15
s-c-h-r-u-m-p-w

51:17
dot com we'll have this uh you know

51:19
we'll have a thing on our site page on

51:22
the site for him

51:23
but owen i thank you for joining me and

51:25
i thank every single person out there

51:27
listening on all the major podcast

51:28
platforms and watching us on the phone

51:30
with annuities

51:31
youtube channel and i will see you

51:34
next week

51:39
thanks for listening to fun with

51:41
annuities please hit the subscribe

51:43
button and make sure to go to my site at

51:46
the annuityman.com where you can run

51:48
your own spea dia and culat quotes and

51:51
see a live feed of the best mega fix

51:53
rates in the country and even get

51:56
indexed and income writer quotes as well

51:58
you can also sign up for my six annuity

52:01
owner's manual books and i'll ship them

52:03
for free and under no obligation i also

52:06
encourage you to schedule a one-on-one

52:08
call with me stan the annuity man so we

52:11
can have a full discussion of your

52:13
specific situation it will be the best

52:16
brutally factual and truthful advice you

52:19
will ever get and that's one guarantee

52:22
you should definitely take advantage of

52:24
so join me next time for the number one

52:26
annuity podcast on the planet

52:28
fun

52:29
with annuities

52:33
[Music]