082 Terry Savage: Financial Realities Right Now

IN THIS EPISODE, THE ANNUITY MAN AND TERRY SAVAGE DISCUSS:
- Is inflation going to be transitory?
- Getting ready for a collapse
- The Great Resignation
- Technology’s effect on markets
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- We have a lot of components of permanent inflation being injected into the economy along with the shortages of goods.
- No one knows for sure that a collapse is coming - everyone can be a little right and a little wrong. But it’s better to be ready and disciplined than to be very wrong at the very worst time, losing all your ability to adjust to the change.
- We not only helped people who are needy but we incented them to not go back to work. COVID is still out there and people are now more afraid to go back to work.
- Technology has allowed the economy to be less volatile, improved the market’s liquidity and allowed better raising of capital.
- Decide who you are. Know yourself and understand the place in history where you’re at right now and recognize the risks, the upsides and the downsides.
"Good judgement comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgement." — Terry Savage
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FUN WITH ANNUITIES (r)
- 0:00 Intro
- 0:39 Welcome Terry Savage
- 2:14 Inflation is transitory
- 4:05 Inflations customizable
- 8:06 Stocks and inflation
- 11:04 Longterm vision
- 17:32 Trillion dollar coin
- 19:16 Interest rates
- 21:15 Global tax
- 25:11 Political Silly Season
- 27:47 The Pendulum
- 30:27 Labor Day
- 32:38 Shipping Companies
- 34:55 Infrastructure
- 36:40 Markets
- 43:34 The Secret Sauce
- 47:42 Blue Water
- 50:13 Closing Mantra
0:04
welcome to fun with annuities with your
0:06
host me stan the annuity man america's
0:09
annuity agent can annuities be fun can
0:12
contractual guarantees be fun
0:14
absolutely they can find out the brutal
0:17
facts about annuities with no sales
0:20
pitches or high pressure nonsense just
0:23
the brutal and factual annuity truth
0:25
which is all you need to hear
0:27
let's have some fun with annuities and
0:29
let's have that fun start right now
0:33
[Music]
0:39
welcome to fun with annuities i'm your
0:41
host stan the annuity man america's
0:42
annuity agent license in all 50 states
0:45
and are saying here at fund with
0:46
annuities is living the reality not the
0:48
dream
0:50
but today's kind of a dream
0:52
because one of my favorite guests has
0:54
returned
0:55
and i'm so happy she is here um she is
0:58
known as the money lady and she is my
1:00
choice for the next fed chairman
1:03
and honestly she is one of the top
1:06
financial minds in the world that is not
1:08
disputable at all
1:10
um and i love reading her stuff we'll
1:13
have all of her information on my site
1:16
at the annuityman.com so you can go to
1:18
her site and watch the videos and read
1:19
her stuff and buy her books
1:21
etc
1:23
and i just want to welcome everybody on
1:25
all the major podcast platforms and on
1:27
the fun with annuities youtube channel
1:28
with that being said
1:30
welcome royalty terry savage how are you
1:33
terry oh i think i just show up so you
1:36
can introduce me because that always
1:37
gets me going for at least a week or ten
1:39
days absolutely i mean the good news is
1:41
you can always just go back and just
1:43
loop it and you know it's on tape so
1:48
um i'm going to include you i just
1:50
looked at my screen i'm like i need to
1:52
get your face up there on the split
1:54
screen because that's the way we like to
1:56
do it let's jump in and talk about
1:57
inflation my my good friend janet yellen
2:00
who i've never met
2:01
she talks about inflation as
2:04
transitory and then the argument is it's
2:07
sustained
2:08
um i could care less what janet yellen
2:11
says i want to know what terry savage
2:13
says well thank you very much um i have
2:15
met janet yellen it's actually i think
2:17
that word transitory is going to go down
2:19
in history and be associated with fed
2:21
chairman jay powell
2:23
and you know allow me to take you back a
2:24
few years do you
2:26
sometimes i think what this proves is
2:28
that fed chairman can say something but
2:31
the markets always have the last word so
2:34
you remember back when alan greenspan
2:35
said a rational exuberance
2:38
kind of he was right only the market
2:39
went up another couple thousand points
2:42
before it collapsed
2:43
and i think jay powell saying that
2:46
inflation is transitory is going to be
2:48
one of those buzzwords that remind us
2:50
that while the fed is powerful the
2:52
markets are more powerful and they will
2:54
eventually have their say
2:57
and i think when you bring up the word
2:59
inflation that's just what's beginning
3:01
to happen
3:03
we are seeing
3:04
not forget the cpi
3:07
and this most recent increase in
3:09
consumer prices you see what's going on
3:11
in the labor market with strike with all
3:14
of these uh unions and others
3:17
who are just not saying i'm not going to
3:18
go back to work you have to be a union
3:20
member to say i demand higher wages we
3:21
have millions of jobs unfilled because
3:24
people won't go back to work there and
3:26
so there's a tremendous wage component
3:29
housing is a huge component of the cpi
3:32
uh now rising interest rates which come
3:34
with inflation typically might
3:36
dim that that the rise of meteoric rise
3:39
in home prices but the fact is we have a
3:41
lot of the components
3:43
of
3:44
permanent inflation being injected into
3:47
the economy along with the shortages has
3:50
been the main headlines recently of
3:51
goods and subs goods that are backed up
3:54
at the port so i think this is actually
3:56
we'll look back on this exact moment as
3:59
when everybody realized the fed can say
4:02
whatever it wants
4:03
inflation's coming and the markets know
4:05
it
4:06
and it's i think it's going to be
4:07
sustained for a longer period of time as
4:09
always tell people inflation's
4:11
customizable and personal i mean i don't
4:13
drive a lot so i don't feel the gas
4:15
crunch but for people that drive
4:17
i really feel sorry for them or if you
4:19
have
4:20
small kids my kids are out of the
4:22
household thank goodness um they're
4:24
still on the payroll terry but they're
4:26
out of the household but anyway um
4:29
you know people with small kids
4:30
inflation hits them differently because
4:33
they have to go the grocery store and
4:34
buy different things can you address
4:36
kind of the customization of inflation
4:38
and for you know most of my listeners
4:41
are either
4:43
retirees they want to be retirees
4:45
they're pointing toward retirement
4:46
they're seniors they're baby boomers
4:48
they're people that are
4:49
do-it-yourselfers that want enough
4:52
information and really good information
4:54
so they can make a decision on their
4:56
terms
4:57
how do you address inflation from that
4:59
group
5:00
yeah well i call us grown-ups
5:02
[Laughter]
5:04
we need grown-ups in the room terry yeah
5:07
we need grown-ups in the room and um all
5:10
grown-ups are going to feel this if you
5:11
keep this this inflation if you heat
5:14
your home with gas
5:15
you you may not have you don't fall to
5:17
futures markets but now gasoline prices
5:19
maybe you don't drive a lot stand but if
5:21
you heat your home with gas which a vast
5:23
majority of america does and that's an
5:25
input into electricity as well
5:28
gas natural gas prices have more than
5:30
doubled so you can expect at least a 50
5:33
increase in your home heating bill this
5:35
winter and and for this particular 50 do
5:38
you're saying 50 percent
5:40
yeah
5:40
your monthly bill in december last year
5:43
it was 382 or whatever it was i think
5:46
you're going to see 500 something
5:48
dollars
5:49
now i i definitely think that's going to
5:51
be passed along and even though we talk
5:53
about it you know i'm on the board of
5:54
directors of cme group the chicago
5:56
mercantile exchange i've watched the
5:58
futures on everything from gold and
6:00
oil we see oil over 80 a barrel now
6:03
again all part of this inflation note so
6:05
seniors just this past week it was
6:07
announced that social security
6:08
recipients will get a 5.9
6:11
increase the cost of living increase
6:13
that's the biggest in 40 years since
6:15
1983. is it 5.4 or
6:19
nine five point nine did it for five
6:21
point nine
6:22
okay so remember back in uh we some of
6:25
us remember 1983 remember the inflation
6:28
we remember in 80 the prime rate at 21
6:31
as paul volcker tried to ring inflation
6:33
out of the economy he was fed chairman
6:35
then we remember treasury bill rates
6:37
that 12 and 13 percent they were and we
6:40
remember that kind of inflation i'm not
6:42
saying that's going to happen today but
6:44
along with inflation tends to come
6:46
higher interest rates so if you think
6:49
that you are um
6:50
blessed now with an almost six percent
6:53
increase in your social security check
6:56
they have not announced the premiums yet
6:58
for medicare part b that's a
7:00
hospitalization and you know those creep
7:02
up every year so that's going to eat up
7:04
a little of your check
7:06
they have not announced yet you know
7:08
every year as a senior about this time
7:09
end of the year you go through at
7:12
medicare.gov your prescription drugs the
7:14
part d plan even if you're not taking
7:17
them
7:17
but if you are you line up all your
7:19
prescriptions and see what they've done
7:21
in your plan and maybe you need to
7:22
switch to another one i can promise you
7:24
that drug prices are going to go up so
7:26
that huge increase you just got in your
7:28
social security check or will get in
7:30
january will be eaten up by your home
7:32
heating oil bill then remember energy
7:34
drives the cost of all the fruits and
7:36
vegetables that we're smart enough to
7:37
eat because those are trucked across the
7:39
country so those will go up uh so your
7:42
home heating bill your medical prices
7:44
your medical services that aren't
7:46
covered by medicare unless you're in an
7:48
advantage program i guarantee you that
7:50
that boost in cola and that social
7:53
security check will be offset by other
7:55
rising costs and the one bright thing is
7:58
you might get a little more interest
8:00
on your cds
8:02
except that the banks that don't want to
8:04
pay you any more interest because
8:05
there's so much let me interject this is
8:07
when i promote myself my goals
8:09
multi-year guarantee annuities
8:11
outperform cds and you can get those
8:13
live rates on my site but i want to go
8:15
back to inflation and i know that you
8:16
are a a big proponent
8:19
of owning stocks over the long run
8:22
but
8:23
these are some markets that and i hear
8:25
this every day from people um
8:28
it you know people that are grown-ups
8:30
terry we've seen markets actually go up
8:33
and down there's a lot of advisors out
8:34
there that always say that i have cowboy
8:36
boots older than they are and they've
8:37
never seen anything go down
8:39
what do you tell the people right here
8:41
even though historically yes stocks work
8:43
what do you say
8:46
well i say i'd like a typical economist
8:49
which i'm not on the one hand and on the
8:51
other hand here's what i know about
8:52
stocks there's never going back a
8:55
hundred years now this is ibbetson's
8:56
research at morningstar never been a
8:58
20-year period where you lost money in a
9:00
diversified portfolio of large companies
9:03
stocks with dividends reinvested that
9:05
that's even adjusted for inflation
9:08
so i know you need a component of stocks
9:11
in your portfolio but i also know that
9:14
as we talk we're so close to all-time
9:16
market highs and anybody who had a 401k
9:19
for years and put that 300 away suddenly
9:22
you've got a real hunk of money you've
9:23
rolled it to an ira you're making
9:25
investment decisions about it and
9:27
because the market's been so generous
9:30
it's been oh my goodness i have more
9:32
money than i ever thought and now the
9:34
question is
9:35
how do you
9:36
get back to an asset allocation that
9:39
makes sense
9:40
so let me just say this
9:42
you got to have stocks that's going to
9:44
offset inflation i know we're going to
9:45
have inflation it
9:47
i don't know am i the only old person
9:49
that remembers the components of
9:50
inflation are too much money pushing up
9:52
prices wages a spiral we're going to see
9:55
that you're con unfortunately you're
9:56
that even though that's a factual
9:58
thought you're somewhat of a contrarian
10:00
right now
10:01
because it seems like everyone's
10:02
forgotten that everybody has forgotten
10:05
that and somebody haven't learned the
10:06
lesson but here's the thing i know
10:08
everyone out there said okay she said we
10:10
have to have some stocks but maybe we
10:11
have too much in stocks where do we put
10:13
it what are our other choices
10:15
okay so
10:17
bonds absolutely not
10:19
because you can lose as much money in
10:21
bonds as you can in stocks who would
10:23
want to lock up your money now for 10
10:25
years at one and a half percent or so in
10:28
u.s treasury bonds if we think
10:31
inflation's coming
10:32
we know the bond market will demand
10:34
higher interest rates when the treasury
10:35
tries to borrow more despite what the
10:37
fed has been able to do recently and so
10:40
you want to be locked up for five or ten
10:42
years so you want your term and then you
10:44
go oh my gosh i went to my bank and
10:46
they're giving me like a quarter of a
10:48
half a percent
10:49
on a one-year cd i just looked those up
10:51
for a show i did recently i mean that
10:53
makes you feel like a fool of inflation
10:55
is up at five percent because you're
10:57
getting a six percent cost of living
10:58
increase you know you're losing
11:00
so stan i turn the microphone back to
11:02
you because what would you do
11:04
well um
11:06
you know i used to live in the world
11:08
with morgan stanley dean witter playing
11:09
weber ubs so i used to be on that side
11:11
of the markets
11:12
um it's it's a tough place to be right
11:15
now just because it is volatile and our
11:18
gut instincts are all telling us
11:20
you know if there was an event this this
11:22
thing could dip i do think i agree with
11:25
you 100 that you're you have to have
11:27
that long-term vision but that's hard to
11:29
do in the short run you do have to be
11:32
disciplined you do have to hang in there
11:34
there are some you know the reason our
11:36
phones ring off the hook right now is
11:37
because
11:38
people are buying these multi-year
11:40
guarantee annuities because they beat
11:41
the cd race that doesn't mean it's
11:43
perfect but that means there's that's
11:44
one of the few places to go
11:47
uh so there's you know as i tell people
11:48
terry there's no perfect answers just
11:50
really bad sales pitches which we don't
11:52
do but i'm really um i'm i'm really
11:55
interested
11:56
to hear your take and insight on
11:59
the corner that the fed has painted
12:02
themselves into
12:04
and we've been around a long time and
12:06
this is blue water i i'm i'm anxiously
12:09
watching just like you are
12:11
what are they going to do i know that i
12:13
think the the chairman gets i think he
12:15
gets reelected or reappointed in january
12:18
do you cons do you think he will then be
12:20
a little bit more autonomous than he is
12:22
now or is he going to continue to be
12:24
bullied by
12:25
you know whoever's in office but let me
12:28
back up a minute because you're not he
12:30
or she okay
12:32
i want to talk about jay paul but i want
12:34
to take a step back because everybody
12:36
out there is going but wait they didn't
12:37
answer my question so what do i now okay
12:41
and you're right no not perfect answers
12:43
but i if there were ever a moment that
12:46
number one
12:47
you had to
12:49
be balanced
12:50
you do need exposure to stocks you do
12:52
need to understand that that's entirely
12:55
possible even if you're 65 or even 70
12:58
you're going to probably live into your
13:00
90s another 15 or 20 years historically
13:02
over a long period stocks have beat
13:04
inflation so you need a component of
13:06
stocks it's not just the economic
13:09
decision you're making it's the
13:10
emotional decision it's easy to say that
13:12
with the dow you know within five
13:14
percent of its all-time highs if the
13:15
market drops 15
13:17
are you going to chicken out all of a
13:18
sudden and dump your stocks and say oh
13:20
my god i can't afford to lose it i won't
13:21
be able to be retired
13:24
then you have to decide that now
13:26
and it's very painful to say i only get
13:29
a half a percent in my cds
13:31
i'm going to talk to stan of i have a
13:33
mica i've i mean i've had a long time
13:35
because i've always bought stuff that i
13:37
wrote about so i could see how it works
13:39
and boy
13:40
you know for a while it lagged the stock
13:41
market it's not in my stock component
13:43
but it makes me feel a lot better as a
13:45
part of my cash component and the fact
13:47
is you need liquidity you need inflation
13:50
protection i'm not against saying with
13:53
gold still under its highest you know
13:55
under that's around 1800 as we talked
13:58
that you might need a gold shares mutual
14:00
fund maybe one that pays dividends i'm
14:02
not going to go tell you to get into
14:03
cryptos if you want to do that you can
14:05
go to go to las vegas and buy some
14:07
cryptos either one
14:09
well what i'm saying is you need a
14:10
really disciplined approach right now in
14:13
a quiet time because otherwise you're
14:15
going to panic and having a little cash
14:17
even if you're losing
14:19
out to inflation right now having some
14:22
liquidity safe money chicken money i
14:24
call it money you can't afford to lose
14:26
on the sidelines will allow you to stick
14:28
with your other investments and not
14:30
panic so i just wanted to finish that up
14:33
i agree with you and i and i think the
14:34
the the conclusion to all that is
14:36
there's no perfect answer yeah and it is
14:38
customizable and you have to it all
14:41
comes down to risk tolerance how much
14:42
risk are you willing to transfer how
14:44
much risk are you willing to shoulder
14:47
um but you i think what i think what i'm
14:49
getting from what you're saying is
14:50
you're sounding the alarm to be
14:52
disciplined because it's coming it's
14:55
like when you're out on the beach and
14:56
you see the wave getting ready to break
14:58
you you get ready for it to hit you
15:01
um i think i think the same thing's
15:03
going to happen
15:05
i run to shore
15:08
none of us knows for sure and so you're
15:10
always going to be a little right and a
15:11
little wrong the problem is you don't
15:12
want to be a lot wrong and then trying
15:15
to fix it at the wrong time okay
15:17
i don't know i think the best
15:20
likelihood is that interest rates go up
15:22
because we have inflation and j powell i
15:25
think has been absolutely independent he
15:27
made it
15:28
okay
15:29
oh yeah i don't i mean i think you know
15:31
people like elizabeth warren say he's so
15:33
independent we've got to get rid of him
15:37
i think the fed
15:39
did a really good job at the beginning
15:42
of covid because we would have had a
15:44
really global financial crisis and the
15:46
fed literally said we're going to print
15:47
enough money and the government said
15:49
great because we're going to pay out
15:51
enough money
15:52
to keep this from being a total global
15:54
collapse because the dollar is the
15:56
center of everything so i'm not down on
15:58
jay powell at all but what i am down on
16:01
is the fact that congress thinks that
16:03
they can keep
16:05
borrowing money because you know they
16:08
say they're going to tax it away but
16:09
they'll never get enough in taxes so
16:10
it'll add to the deficit which they'll
16:12
of course raise in the debt ceiling and
16:15
the fed has been very accommodating
16:18
so whenever the government issues ious
16:20
the fed goes out in the open market and
16:22
buys them for its own portfolio putting
16:25
newly created liquidity into the system
16:27
nobody ever asked jay powell to put his
16:29
driver's license number you know on the
16:30
back of the check it was a great line
16:32
under paul voker davis that is a good
16:33
line yeah but the point is they just
16:36
create new money to give out and that
16:39
creates this inflation spiral which
16:40
we've all forgotten about
16:42
so
16:43
i i think that they should keep jay
16:46
powell he gets it he's done what he has
16:48
to do and he's trying to get congress to
16:50
do something responsible and we should
16:52
all want congress to do something
16:54
responsible
16:55
and uh
16:57
there are good arguments on both sides
17:00
of why there are people that need help i
17:02
don't want to say that that's not a good
17:04
argument
17:05
but we have to think about whether what
17:08
we're doing is really helping we just
17:10
need to get our priorities reorganized
17:12
in this country
17:13
um
17:16
just ask yourself
17:17
why is a baseball player a basketball
17:19
player or football player who plays i
17:22
mean it's yeah you get beat up for an
17:23
hour on the football field why are they
17:25
worth multi-million dollar contracts and
17:28
teachers and day care workers
17:31
get nothing
17:33
hey that's a
17:34
another
17:35
type of problem i was i was wanting to
17:37
also get your
17:39
input on the idea that was quickly
17:42
floated
17:43
about minting a trillion dollar coin oh
17:46
for god's sakes did you fall down and
17:49
just like
17:51
yell at the top of your lungs what did
17:52
you do when you heard that and well well
17:55
what i did and i wish i would you have
17:57
known you were going to bring it i have
17:58
a billion dollar
18:01
zimbabwe banknote of course you do okay
18:04
of course i do and now you can buy those
18:06
on ebay if you want exactly that's a
18:07
couple hundred dollars i want a trillion
18:09
dollar coin terry that's what i want and
18:12
then go and then go to publix and publix
18:14
is the local grocery store in florida
18:16
where i live part of the time and go hey
18:19
um i'd like some bread
18:22
exactly because that's exactly what
18:24
it'll be worth a loaf of bread
18:26
you know
18:26
it's a weird thing that congress did
18:28
that i never even noticed 20 years ago
18:30
where they said that congress could min
18:32
any coin of any denomination as long as
18:34
it wasn't minted in gold silver or
18:37
bronze
18:39
so they could mint a coin that came the
18:42
theory came some idiots in washington
18:44
that said
18:45
okay
18:46
we'll just deposit um we'll just pay
18:49
down a trillion dollars worth of debt or
18:51
we'll just
18:52
deposit this into the system
18:55
i saw janet yellen have to answer that
18:57
question
18:59
greatly gosh she's been the fed chairman
19:00
she's treasury secretary she's danced
19:02
political and the economic lines i mean
19:05
she's one of my heroes and i saw her try
19:07
to answer with a straight face uh when
19:10
that was poster on cnbc that morning and
19:12
i yelled at the tv oh just tell them
19:14
they're a bunch of idiots you know
19:16
well you know the po there's politicians
19:18
out there that would love for interest
19:20
rates to go to zero or negative
19:22
so they could print more money to give
19:24
it away
19:26
i mean people always ask me can interest
19:28
rates go down or up or whatever first of
19:30
all no one knows
19:31
um and if they do they're not telling
19:33
anybody but could they go down
19:35
i'm asking you terry savage i will tell
19:38
you that i was at a private dinner this
19:40
is
19:41
way before covet um
19:43
with
19:44
uh jay paul who was not that yet fed
19:47
chairman he was a fed governor
19:49
and
19:50
everybo those all business people but i
19:52
turn into terry the financial journalist
19:54
in a moment like that for asking these
19:56
easy questions and i i asked him i said
19:59
it was remember when
20:01
50 of the european debt central bank
20:03
debt was negative in other words
20:05
europeans were paying the banks to hold
20:07
their money so it's
20:09
negative interest rates are
20:11
a sign of huge deflation and that could
20:13
come only in a global financial collapse
20:16
which was what was happening this is as
20:18
i said some years ago and i said mr
20:21
powell do you think interest rates
20:23
because t-bill rights were down at
20:25
0.08 percent said do you think interest
20:28
rates will go negative
20:30
in the united states
20:32
i will never forget i'm really
20:34
intimidated stan he looked at me with
20:36
those big bushy eyebrows and he looked
20:38
at me and he said
20:40
interest rates will never be negative in
20:42
the united states
20:44
so i kind of cringed a little bit i said
20:46
well thank you sir never say never as
20:49
they always say
20:51
how about this it just it's just a year
20:54
ago i believe
20:55
that oil prices maybe it's more 15
20:57
months ago that oil prices traded
20:59
negative right and yet oil is 80 a
21:02
barrel right today
21:04
because when markets get pushed to
21:07
extremes by
21:09
what's going on in the economy
21:11
markets react only in china don't
21:13
markets react because the government
21:14
controls them this global tax that
21:17
they're floating too i'm sure you're
21:21
not going
21:22
about something i mean i mean but but
21:24
people want to hear you know when i get
21:25
we would did our last podcast you know
21:28
my emails lit up and and everything lit
21:30
up with you know ask her this ask her
21:32
this and they really people my my
21:34
listeners do want to hear your
21:36
your comments on on pop culture type
21:39
items and political items and that's
21:41
when that was just floated they're
21:42
talking about a global tax
21:45
as a small business owner um you know i
21:47
look at that and go i'm just not sure we
21:49
can take more taxation
21:52
maybe we can maybe we can't but global
21:54
tax seems to me as a as a rabbit hole
21:57
what do you think
21:58
i i haven't
21:59
i'm sorry to say i haven't read about a
22:01
global text i don't know who would love
22:03
you that but i think what there's a lot
22:04
of discussion about is talking about it
22:07
comparative tax rates and why on earth
22:09
we would want to raise the taxes on u.s
22:11
businesses
22:13
to be among the highest in the developed
22:15
world which just only puts our
22:17
businesses at a disadvantage now they're
22:19
actually floating a global tax i don't
22:21
know who would who would who would grab
22:23
it but you know it's it's it's just a
22:25
very fancy form of wealth distribution
22:28
um that's going on
22:30
um but it's interesting
22:33
to watch the first year of this
22:35
administration and i'm not political in
22:37
any way i'm pure capitalist period
22:40
um but doesn't it seem like we're
22:43
spiraling a little bit downward doesn't
22:45
it seem just a tad bit chaotic to you
22:47
because you've seen it all been there
22:49
forgotten more than most people will
22:51
ever know
22:52
you just you know i don't see my hair
22:53
colored again you can't see the grays
22:55
but look stan
22:57
one of the earliest lessons in
22:58
capitalism i remember the man who taught
23:01
it to me i remember the moment i heard
23:03
it and i've carried this thought with me
23:06
uh he said yes
23:09
capitalism is the unequal distribution
23:13
of wealth
23:14
but socialism
23:16
is the equal distribution of poverty
23:20
so we have seen at least
23:23
my generation
23:25
remembers in the old soviet union people
23:27
standing in line for hours for bread or
23:29
a chicken
23:30
cuba
23:32
look what socialism has done in cuba
23:35
china started growing because they let
23:37
their people who haven't
23:39
been told an innate capitalistic tenancy
23:41
over 2 000 years go ahead and be
23:43
capitalist but now they want to
23:45
socialize and equalize everything again
23:48
if we only studied history
23:51
we would learn i i think
23:53
it you know it's not political
23:56
here's another lesson i learned
24:00
a rising tide raises all ships and you
24:03
know who said that
24:05
john f kennedy he was a democrat
24:08
he was the one that put in the kennedy
24:09
round of tax cuts he cut the top tax
24:11
rate from over 90
24:14
to just to 52
24:17
the kennedy round of tariff cuts
24:19
he was the one who said paradoxically
24:23
cutting tax rates
24:25
increases tax revenues
24:28
anybody who doesn't remember you all
24:30
remember but tell your kids kennedy was
24:31
a democrat it wasn't a political thing
24:34
it was an idea that people don't work to
24:37
pay taxes they work to keep an after tax
24:39
return
24:40
so the whole idea that we've lost the
24:43
sense that people don't work to serve
24:45
the government except in places like
24:47
cuba the old soviet union again again in
24:49
china now probably and that really
24:52
destroys an economy so if we want to
24:53
create wealth
24:54
and uplift people we have to have a
24:56
growing economy and taxing incentives
24:59
away will not do that
25:01
that's i mean you may disagree with me
25:04
and i totally agree i totally agree with
25:06
you i mean you out there may disagree
25:08
but i know that ruin history says it's
25:11
true you you can't
25:13
legis legislate equality
25:16
um when business owners are taking risks
25:19
that other people aren't taking there
25:21
needs to be a reward system for that
25:23
which leads us to our friends in dc and
25:25
um it's political silly season obviously
25:30
how how can they
25:32
i literally thought when when the the
25:34
change of uh administrations i thought
25:36
they were walking it even though covet
25:38
is was kind of work its way through
25:41
i thought that that the economy
25:44
would be a non-stop juggernaut how have
25:48
the politicians both parties have they
25:51
screwed this thing up
25:55
well and i want to make clear i do
25:56
believe it's both parties oh absolutely
25:58
they've
26:00
i'm astounded
26:02
at how
26:04
how little they care about the country
26:07
how much untruth they believe
26:10
on both extremes and whether you're
26:12
talking about covet or taxes or whatever
26:15
they're we seem to have taken leave of a
26:18
of historical perspective
26:20
and common sense in washington and
26:23
that's scary but as my other friend
26:25
warren buffett always said you know
26:26
nobody got rich betting against america
26:28
and by the way if you don't believe that
26:30
if you don't believe that she knows
26:32
warren buffett go to her site and watch
26:34
the video with her and warren buffett so
26:36
she wouldn't just she didn't just drop
26:38
that name this is legit
26:40
well i keep that up there because i
26:41
think that that video was done in the
26:44
middle of the financial crisis
26:46
i interviewed him at uh a charity
26:48
benefit where people paid a lot of money
26:50
sure and i and and
26:52
it was the worst time i mean it was back
26:54
in 2008 it's you'll see what i look like
26:56
10 years ago and and the thing is
26:59
um
27:00
he was so optimistic then and everybody
27:03
was so pessimistic because that's when
27:05
the banking system and people were
27:06
losing their houses they were producing
27:08
for goodness sakes today let's think
27:10
about how quickly things move a decade
27:13
ago in the financial crisis the mortgage
27:15
crisis and so forth the banks were
27:17
failing
27:18
you know they were being taken over the
27:20
government was trying to help them out
27:21
general motors was on the brink and we
27:24
were bulldozing houses empty houses in
27:26
california today we don't have enough of
27:28
a supply of houses
27:30
a perspective is really important but we
27:33
we right at our ship and then along came
27:35
prophet
27:36
and i think we will
27:38
i i hope that what we're seeing is such
27:39
an extreme of idiocy in washington that
27:42
the heart of america rises up and says
27:44
stop it you silly kids
27:46
this is our election and voters
27:48
typically do that if they if if
27:51
yeah the pendulum swings
27:53
you know far right or far left they
27:54
always grab the pendulum and say whoa
27:56
stop there for a second um but maybe not
28:00
maybe this time it swings left and stays
28:03
left because people you know i read the
28:05
other day where over 4 million people
28:06
you know kind of quit their jobs and
28:08
said hey i don't want to do this now
28:10
there's arguments for on both sides that
28:12
hey wages might not be high enough or
28:14
the argument on the other side is if you
28:16
pay people more than they make it work
28:17
they're not going to work you know on a
28:19
welfare
28:20
where do you land on all of that and do
28:22
you think this is actually
28:23
can it can it be looked at glass half
28:25
full or is this glass half empty with 4
28:27
million people saying i don't want to
28:28
work well this is a very interesting
28:31
moment as i uh after labor day we
28:34
embarked on a really great social
28:36
experiment and the jury's out on it we
28:38
said all the people that were
28:40
self-employed will stop getting
28:42
unemployment benefits that's when that
28:44
ended the pua plan
28:46
pandemic unemployment assistance uh all
28:48
the extra money that people got and
28:50
unemployment by itself is relatively low
28:53
in every state but that extra 300 a week
28:55
and before that it was 600 a week
28:57
remember um that we paid out certainly
29:01
you know that which you tax you get less
29:03
of that which you incent you get more of
29:05
and and we not only help people who are
29:08
needy but we incented them not to go
29:10
back to work and not to mention
29:13
there's still so much covet in the delta
29:15
variant out there that people are
29:17
legitimately afraid
29:19
to go back to work in the service jobs
29:21
where they meet people face to face so a
29:24
as we get a handle on the pandemic maybe
29:26
that maybe with boosters or whatever it
29:27
takes and b as people are not getting
29:30
the benefits
29:32
there are jobs open
29:34
and the question is what have we done to
29:35
the american psyche
29:36
that people are not willing to do those
29:39
basic jobs and of course
29:41
400 you know our history is replete with
29:43
periods of extremes but what happened
29:47
typically is we had a lot of immigration
29:50
and those were the people around the
29:52
gilded age around in the 1880s 1890s
29:55
they came to america to do the basic
29:57
they were horrible jobs they were
29:59
sweatshirt
30:00
jobs and for young girls sewing and
30:03
being maids and
30:04
and the world's worst jobs but people
30:06
came to america because they knew they
30:08
could make a better life for their
30:09
children we've closed pretty much the
30:11
doors on immigration
30:13
and um so we're now seeing
30:16
that the people who are here
30:18
are not willing to do those jobs we're
30:20
not very interesting social experiment
30:22
i'm fascinated as a
30:24
economic historian of sorts to to look
30:26
and see what develops it is interesting
30:28
to watch i have a theory that the phrase
30:30
labor day
30:32
will be deemed hate speech and we will
30:34
no longer celebrate that anymore because
30:36
it's offensive i'm not kidding and as as
30:38
stupid as that sounds i want you to
30:40
think logically through that
30:42
because
30:43
um
30:44
it's kind of crazy where we're at right
30:46
now where
30:47
we've all had jobs where we didn't like
30:49
it and we had to pay our dues and i'm
30:51
just not sure we're in a society now
30:53
that that feels like they have to now
30:56
when coveted hit it made us realize the
30:58
fragility of of life and and the fact
31:01
that over 700 000 people in this country
31:03
alone have passed away due to whether
31:05
you believe that's a true number or not
31:07
then then if you don't believe that's
31:09
true then
31:10
let's just say it's 300 that's still a
31:12
lot the point is it made people kind of
31:15
do some self-reflection and say hey you
31:18
know what do i want to do the problem is
31:19
that not everybody can be a sculptor or
31:22
a painter or a guitar player a lawyer
31:25
from doing it on zoom or a professional
31:28
and that's the that's where the jobs are
31:30
open
31:31
you want to go out to a great restaurant
31:33
restaurants are open
31:34
but they're only half full but you can't
31:36
get a table because they don't have
31:38
enough cooks or white staff to serve you
31:40
so as i said we're going through a
31:42
really
31:43
a great reorganization of priorities in
31:47
america
31:50
oh that was uh was that warren buffett
31:51
tried to call you right there was that
31:54
actually
31:56
hey terry when you turn on the
31:57
television
31:59
and you see 60 to 80 ships in the los
32:02
angeles port
32:05
what do you think
32:07
i think the president did a great job i
32:09
think someone needs to step up and those
32:11
are you know there are areas that are
32:13
really important for government i think
32:14
to be involved
32:16
and one of those is certainly
32:18
that the safety the the national
32:21
interests
32:22
and i think it's definitely in the
32:24
national interest for
32:25
um for a government to step in
32:28
and deal with national kinds of problems
32:32
so it's not just war
32:34
uh
32:34
national defense i i i was really proud
32:37
that they noticed well i i agree with
32:40
what what the president said which is
32:42
maybe we need to go 24 7 3 24 7 on the
32:45
shipping companies the to to do this
32:48
bottleneck the only problem with that
32:50
thought is they still can't hire people
32:51
to go and drive the trucks i i read an
32:54
article today where they're actually
32:55
thinking about having 18 year olds
32:58
be able to drive long-haul trucks which
33:00
means that i will never drive again
33:02
on the road terry that's all it means i
33:05
know i heard that and i was riding i was
33:08
on the highway this morning actually but
33:10
there were a lot of trucks and i started
33:12
thinking you better stay out of the way
33:13
what if these are some of the amateurs
33:15
that they're hanging again
33:17
it's a question of priorities i mean we
33:20
have tv stars we have media stars
33:23
we have uh athletes
33:26
who that's not going to change terry
33:27
that's like wishing that all of us had
33:29
six-pack ab muscles
33:31
it's just not going to happen yeah the
33:33
priorities from the standpoint of that i
33:35
mean it's just i mean those people
33:36
always going to get overpaid for
33:38
whatever reason because it's
33:39
entertainment entertainment is is skewed
33:42
against the reality of we need to pay
33:45
teachers more i agree with you but
33:47
i don't think that's ever going to
33:48
change or maybe sports or what are those
33:51
things go in cycles
33:53
um
33:54
maybe but i haven't seen any indication
33:56
of that coming up anytime soon
33:58
no it's it's very american it is very
34:00
american it's just that um
34:03
we're seeing the results
34:06
of our priorities now obviously do you
34:08
have to share some of the texts or
34:10
emails you get as a result of this
34:11
discussion because i don't have an
34:13
answer for that
34:15
but i know
34:16
that
34:18
it's a problem that's impacting our
34:20
society now and whether it's truck
34:22
drivers because they get us our food or
34:24
the frontline staff that you know
34:26
walmart or whatever it might be or
34:28
whether it's the teachers i mean
34:31
i think america's having sort of a day
34:33
of reckoning here
34:35
and the only answer to that is growth
34:37
the absolute only answer to that we we
34:40
cannot divide our way out of the
34:42
problems
34:43
by cutting up the pie
34:45
and distributing the crumbs i i firmly
34:48
believe that the real answer to our
34:50
economic problems is economic growth
34:52
raising taxes does not give you economic
34:55
growth i agree and i and i think that
34:57
we're going to find out
34:59
how
35:00
important and most people know this
35:02
already but a lot of people don't how
35:04
important truck drivers are
35:06
i'm telling you right now
35:08
those people
35:10
make this whole thing happen now and i
35:12
know that there's technology there's
35:14
driverless trucks and they're trying to
35:15
figure out how to do this long term but
35:18
if it wasn't for the truck drivers it's
35:20
not happening out there period
35:23
and we got to get roads too and bridges
35:25
that are safe
35:26
so here you go
35:28
agreed um which frustrates me when i
35:30
hear you know
35:32
there's infrastructure bills that should
35:34
go through because we need better roads
35:35
and bridges and i think um
35:37
those are important and then i hear the
35:38
words human infrastructure
35:41
which drives me crazy
35:43
um
35:44
but do you think and you know this this
35:47
will definitely air
35:48
before this podcast will air before um
35:51
you know dc makes a decision but do you
35:54
predict
35:55
a long long time
35:56
do you think they're going to get
35:57
something
35:58
done on the inf the true infrastructure
36:00
bill which i think is needed i think
36:02
everybody in the country says yeah if
36:04
we're going to spend money let's spend
36:05
money there you think they'll at least
36:07
do that
36:09
stan you got to get someone who
36:11
handicaps politics i'm i'm as frustrated
36:14
as any average american and i don't have
36:16
any insight to that i never would have
36:18
believed
36:20
some of the things that are happening
36:21
that have happened in the last couple of
36:23
years or more out of washington
36:25
and i don't you know i i hope we don't
36:27
need a bigger crisis
36:30
to to shake washington up i
36:33
i'm like everyone else you you go get
36:36
both sides to argue this out nobody else
36:38
seems to be able to make headway
36:41
yeah the polarization of the countries
36:43
is bad um
36:45
to say the least
36:47
um
36:47
getting back to the markets um
36:51
you know we've been around a while and
36:52
we remember the dot-com era where there
36:55
were uh companies that were going public
36:57
that had no value and you know they were
36:59
going from 12 to 70 in one day i was
37:02
there i was part of with morgan stanley
37:04
we were part of a lot of those
37:06
underwritings and and i was part of that
37:08
group that was in charge of a lot of
37:10
that in in my region
37:13
and it was crazy is there a
37:15
an eerie feeling the same thing when you
37:17
hear about people margining crypto to
37:20
buy crypto
37:23
well
37:24
you know uh here's another old savage
37:26
truth my book is the savage truth on
37:28
money and and
37:30
it's great for your kids
37:32
it's a great read for all levels period
37:35
long-term care insurance and all those
37:37
sure i don't love very much anymore i i
37:39
do
37:40
television regularly in chicago i on
37:43
radio and wgn tv and radio and
37:47
and i have a syndicated column that runs
37:49
every week so i'm always out there
37:50
talking to what i call regular people
37:52
and you're i'm not giving you the most
37:55
sophisticated stuff but i've been around
37:57
the markets for a long long time i was a
37:59
founding member of the chicago board
38:01
options exchange the first woman trader
38:03
that's how i knew i wasn't a good trader
38:04
not a bad investor
38:06
but not a good trader and so
38:09
you know i look at
38:11
at the markets from a historical
38:13
perspective
38:14
i know i'll give you something i lived
38:17
through
38:18
from night from
38:19
1971 to the dow jones made its high of
38:23
over a thousand
38:24
until 1982 and i was a young stockbroker
38:28
then and then a trader on the options
38:30
exchange which opened in 73.
38:32
not until august of 82 when nixon closed
38:35
the gold window did the dow go over a
38:37
thousand we had a 10-year decade of the
38:39
dow trading under a thousand
38:43
and then i remember distinctly in 1998
38:46
99 saying this is insane there's a great
38:49
chart market capitalization compared to
38:51
gdp this is a chart that was off the
38:54
charts i spent a lot of time speaking to
38:55
corporate audiences and they asked me to
38:58
talk about their 401k plans and i was
39:00
warning people for three years i look
39:02
like such a stupid person because the
39:04
market was going up and going up and my
39:06
chart was going farther off the chart
39:08
and so here's an old savage truth the
39:10
market can stay irrational a lot longer
39:13
than you could stay solvent
39:16
don't fight the market
39:18
allocate to the market and then get out
39:20
of the way
39:22
of trying to decide when enough is
39:24
enough the market will decide when
39:26
enough is enough
39:27
so i
39:29
you know yes there's a lot of craziness
39:31
going on
39:32
but people
39:33
you know it's not your audience you
39:35
defined it but every one of you out
39:37
there if you have a son or daughter in
39:38
their 30s or 40s or 20s probably
39:42
that you should be so excited oh my god
39:44
my son likes my son's an investment
39:47
professional he's older than that but i
39:48
mean these young people oh great they're
39:51
trading at robinhood good they're
39:52
learning how to invest no
39:54
they're doing fantasy football on the
39:57
weekends and they're doing robinhood in
40:00
the middle of the week and it's nothing
40:01
to do with price earnings ratios or cash
40:04
flow models or dividend yields
40:06
whatever so here's the whole thing
40:09
there's a whole piece of the people in
40:12
this boat
40:13
that are
40:15
they're not playing with with the same
40:17
oars they're not rowing with the same
40:19
ores you're rowing with
40:20
and they're going to jump up and down
40:22
and rock the boat while you're sitting
40:24
there going oh i've got my long-term
40:25
investment plan
40:27
they're rocking the boat in ways that
40:28
are unpredictable especially when waves
40:31
come along so you just got to worry
40:33
about yourself right now you've got to
40:35
diversify you must think about your
40:38
future liquidity needs so that you're
40:40
not forced to sell when and if there's a
40:42
huge market decline and you can't tell
40:45
these people they're crazy the market
40:47
will let them know they're all going to
40:49
get a lesson the market always does the
40:52
most unexpected thing it teaches most
40:54
people the greatest lesson
40:56
it will flush them out for sure yeah
40:58
good judgment comes from experience and
41:00
experience comes from bad judgment
41:04
yeah that's good i'm gonna i'm gonna
41:06
date myself a little bit here but you'll
41:07
understand what i'm gonna say when i
41:09
first started in the stock brokers
41:10
business that's what it was called and
41:12
you someone bought a stock you wrote it
41:14
down on a piece of paper you put in a
41:16
vacuum tube the vacuum tube went to the
41:18
the desk the desk inputted the order
41:20
that's how old i am
41:22
well so i said absolutely but let me let
41:25
me finish with my thought there at this
41:28
point in time at the time of this taping
41:31
depending on who's doing the stats over
41:33
80 percent
41:35
of all
41:36
trades
41:37
are done by non-human algorithmic black
41:41
box high velocity 24 7
41:44
computers
41:45
that's a change from when
41:47
me and you were first starting in the
41:49
business
41:51
what is your opinion on
41:53
the technology aspect
41:56
affecting markets
41:58
in a good and or bad way
42:00
well actually i think markets are in a
42:03
way a lot less volatile because there is
42:07
so much volume and it's trading on both
42:11
sides of the market don't forget when
42:12
you and i started out there was a
42:14
specialist on the floor of the new york
42:15
stock exchange
42:16
a lot of money you wouldn't sell you
42:18
know so the gaps were wider we're in
42:21
decimals now instead of quarters and
42:23
sixteenths that's narrowed the spread
42:25
and i i think actually the markets the
42:27
technology has really improved liquidity
42:30
and allowed for better raising of
42:32
capital in the olden days you have to go
42:34
to merrill lynch or dean witter or sure
42:37
happy morgan or
42:39
goldman sachs or whatever to sell stock
42:41
to the public
42:42
now companies can
42:44
sell stock directly on the exchange i
42:47
think technology has been truly enabling
42:49
and i think
42:50
fintech um the whole fintech sector of
42:53
the market i've written stories for the
42:55
last decade about companies that are
42:57
doing everything from refinancing your
42:58
student loans to allowing you to buy
43:01
pennies of you know stockpile.com lets
43:03
you buy penny share you know
43:06
a dollar's worth of shares for your
43:07
grandchild
43:09
the fact technology has improved the
43:12
efficiency of the markets has dim to the
43:14
volatility of the markets and only when
43:17
human nature takes over
43:19
when human nature takes over like you
43:20
saw in the run-up of the mean stocks
43:22
earlier this year sure
43:24
but the market's not bigger than human
43:26
nature human nature can push the market
43:28
to extremes and then the market gets you
43:30
back it always gets you back i believe
43:32
that
43:34
i think that's
43:35
that's a very interesting take on it
43:37
because i think people get scared
43:39
sometimes of the institutional sways
43:42
in the markets and just big money
43:44
driving things and they feel like
43:46
they're
43:47
surfing beside a cruise ship
43:49
and they don't want to get sucked under
43:50
the boat and they want to catch the wave
43:52
if they can which leads back to your
43:54
initial thought about you have to be
43:56
disciplined you do have to to to look at
43:59
the long term and i know that sounds
44:00
cliche to people out there but i think
44:03
it's important for someone like terry
44:04
savage to say that's actually it
44:06
that's actually the secret sauce
44:09
to this whole thing uh because you know
44:11
i was around also with you when day
44:13
trading was it and everyone tried to day
44:15
trade and i went okay that's not gonna
44:16
work
44:17
i mean that's that's gonna that's gonna
44:20
be a mess
44:22
what's your prediction
44:25
technology wise or do you have any for
44:27
where the markets are going or or how
44:30
people are able to interact
44:33
and buy things from an investment
44:35
standpoint are you a fan of some of the
44:38
some of the the things that are popping
44:40
up like the i'm sure you're not a fan of
44:42
the family offices and those things but
44:44
i used to call them holding companies
44:46
they have an acronym for them now that
44:48
are popping up do you like what's
44:49
happening with some of the pools of
44:51
money that's out there that's doing some
44:53
shadow investing
44:56
i did wait you threw a whole lot of
44:57
dirty words off of course of course i
44:59
did that's what i do
45:01
that's such a grab bag on such a beef
45:03
stew of of
45:06
hey first of all
45:07
it doesn't matter how the buyers and
45:09
sellers are organized they have their
45:11
opinions they buy it they sell family
45:13
offices are just simply a way for very
45:15
wealthy people to manage their money and
45:17
they invest in the stock market or in
45:19
venture capital the only problem with
45:20
that is they don't have to this current
45:22
time of the taping they don't have to
45:24
disclose a lot of their holdings which
45:27
main firms do that's that's just a
45:29
asterisk missed savage that we need
45:32
that's a small little piece of the
45:33
market look here's what i know i've been
45:36
around the markets for a long long time
45:38
now i've been around traders i made a
45:40
quip earlier but i really mean this i
45:43
was literally down there on the trading
45:45
floor
45:46
in the olden days when this cboe first
45:49
opened up as i was the first woman
45:51
trader and um
45:53
and i they had these guys on the in the
45:56
booths with headsets on to new york and
45:59
i went wait what they're buying 10 000
46:01
of this how do they know do they know
46:03
what's happening in new york on the
46:04
exchange that a block is going to cross
46:06
of ibm or whatever those stocks those
46:08
days digital equipment was a high-tech
46:10
stock
46:11
and not only that i was the most even
46:14
trade i'd buy 10 of these because that
46:15
was a good idea and i'm a little
46:16
concerned i'll sell 10 of those i'll buy
46:18
15 of this pretty soon i had a big
46:20
portfolio and it was equally balanced
46:22
i'm i think there's a gene i walked
46:24
around interviewing people on the old
46:27
trading floors to see if i could
46:28
discover i'm heck i'm married a trader
46:31
and i have a son and i sent him down to
46:34
the trading floor to work as a clerk one
46:36
one summer figuring if he was really a
46:38
trader like his father
46:40
i wouldn't have to pay for college
46:42
now he's a great and highly respected
46:45
investment professional today i'm never
46:47
allowed to talk about him as firm or
46:48
what he does but the fact is i think
46:50
trading is a gene
46:52
or else it's an addiction and you
46:55
know people they're probably younger
46:57
than you if you're sitting here watching
46:59
this podcast who are really making money
47:01
and you're going why didn't i buy
47:02
bitcoin at 600.
47:04
i told people not to buy it at 600 not
47:06
because it wasn't a good idea but
47:07
because i was afraid it was just a way
47:09
to steal your money that these wallets
47:11
you know you'd forget your access or
47:13
someone would steal it
47:15
so i'm not a trader
47:17
if you want trading advice tune in cnbc
47:20
all day long
47:22
let me see i keep it on it's a wallpaper
47:24
background i mainly look around to see
47:26
what's going on what's the trend
47:28
decide who you are
47:30
know yourself by this time if you're
47:32
listening to this podcast you should
47:34
know yourself
47:36
and then
47:37
understand the place in history where
47:39
we're at right now and the risks to the
47:40
upside and the downside well the place
47:43
we're at right now that's a good that's
47:44
a good segue to my next question
47:47
where we're at right now does this
47:49
remind you of of a specific moment in
47:52
time in the past as you've looked at
47:54
markets and investing or are we at what
47:57
i call blue water which is we've never
47:59
seen it before and this is new
48:02
it's always new stand
48:04
it's always a mistake you mean to look
48:06
back that's not the direction you're
48:08
going you're supposed to learn something
48:11
by
48:12
feeling the waves of history that lead
48:15
to
48:16
extremes on the downside extremes on the
48:18
upside but it's never just the same it's
48:22
always blue water if it weren't there be
48:24
somebody who could give you answers so
48:26
what you have to do you know you have to
48:28
sort of balance yourself and say if this
48:30
happens i'll be really glad i had this
48:33
if that happens i wish i had more of
48:34
that
48:36
that's the only way i know if you want
48:38
to put it all on the line go be a
48:40
traitor it's it's it wasn't my thrill
48:43
and i i now prove to myself i'll tell
48:46
you something i did i mentioned this
48:48
where did i do this for oh
48:50
you know by the way i do a podcast not
48:52
at all like yours with pam krueger of
48:54
wealth ramp and um uh and richard
48:58
eisenberg of pbs's next avenue it's
49:00
called friends talk money you can
49:02
look for friends talk money or go to
49:03
fred's talkmoney.org and we're talking
49:06
about balancing things out so i started
49:10
when they first opened up iras and you
49:12
could put two thousand dollars in i
49:14
opened an ira in a cd
49:16
at the same time i put an ira in an
49:19
index fund and i remember saying yeah
49:22
but the market's going down i'm gonna i
49:24
need some chicken money and it turned
49:27
out that all the projections in my book
49:29
about what two thousand dollars would
49:31
grow to with an average return of 10.1
49:33
percent which has always been the
49:35
historical average return of the stock
49:36
market i just that ira is still sitting
49:40
in my chase account i just always gave
49:42
instructions roll it over so it rolls
49:43
over now at like three hundredths of a
49:45
percent
49:46
it's worth about 7 500
49:49
whereas the i went and did the numbers
49:51
for the stock market because i've had
49:53
lots of different investments and funds
49:55
over the time that same amount of money
49:57
would have been over 58 000 real just
50:00
based on the on the cash value of the
50:03
dow
50:05
you can't be all in chicken money you
50:07
have to believe in the future of america
50:09
if you don't believe in the future of
50:10
america then don't bother investing go
50:11
somewhere else
50:13
no i agree i agree with that terry
50:15
savage you're one of my favorite people
50:17
on the planet
50:18
and i'm so glad that you joined us um
50:21
for the fun with annuities any last
50:23
words as i always like to have my
50:25
celebrity guest
50:27
give kind of the the closing mantra
50:30
as you get in your learjet and and zip
50:32
off to the swiss alps
50:37
and
50:38
i'm i'm gonna give two closing things
50:41
okay first one
50:43
is you've had all my profundities
50:46
nobody knows for sure don't feel bad
50:48
that someone else is getting making a
50:49
lot of money in cryptos and someone else
50:51
has been trading amc the movie theaters
50:53
you know what if you don't want to go
50:55
back to the movies i don't get why those
50:57
stocks should be soaring but that's
50:58
you're never going to beat the market i
51:01
just go to terry savage.com i just
51:03
posted a column by the time he says that
51:05
maybe a week or two old
51:06
you don't have to beat the market s p
51:09
dow jones indus
51:11
indexes keep a score card
51:13
and the score card is how many
51:16
professional money managers of mutual
51:18
funds the kind that you get to choose
51:20
from have beat their benchmark indexes
51:23
and it's like in the last year 70
51:25
percent of the large cap the small cap
51:28
the mid cap
51:29
they've all failed to beat
51:32
their benchmark market indexes
51:34
you don't have to beat the market you
51:36
just have to be the market and over the
51:38
long run
51:39
you will come out ahead so that's a
51:41
savage troop i was just going to say you
51:43
stole my line i was going to end that
51:45
with that is
51:47
the savage truth and it actually is
51:50
terry thank you so much for being on fun
51:52
with annuities i want to thank everybody
51:54
for joining us and i will see you next
51:57
week
52:02
thanks for listening to fun with
52:04
annuities please hit the subscribe
52:06
button and make sure to go to my site at
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the
52:09
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52:11
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52:24
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52:29
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52:31
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52:34
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52:36
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52:39
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52:42
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52:44
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52:46
so join me next time for the number one
52:48
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52:52
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52:56
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53:06
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